Tonight's Debate 10/15/2008

[Drew Dowdell]

Rasmussen Tracking 10/13 - 10/15 3000 LV 50 46 Obama +4

Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Tracking 10/13 - 10/15 1208 LV 49 44 Obama +5

Hotline/FD Tracking 10/13 - 10/15 817 LV 49 41 Obama +8

Gallup Tracking (Traditional)* 10/13 - 10/15 2143 LV 49 47 Obama +2

Gallup Tracking (Expanded)* 10/13 - 10/15 2312 LV 51 45 Obama +6

Not sure where you're seeing a tightening.....

[Teh Ricer Civic!]

Not sure where you're seeing a tightening.....

Down from +8s to +14s thats a tightening

[A Horse With No Name]

For most of us, there is NO difference between Bush and McCain. They agree on 95% of everything. In essence McCain is Bush but older and slower.

+1

Chris

[Drew Dowdell]

Down from +8s to +14s thats a tightening

What state is that?

Cause this is what I see nationally...

[Teh Ricer Civic!]

What state is that?

Cause this is what I see nationally...

Its the national polls, and considering your polls are at least 2 days old it just reaffirms my statement.

Edited October 16, 2008 by Teh Ricer Civic!

[Drew Dowdell]

Can you link your data? I'm not denying it's authenticity, I'm just surprised FiveThirtyEight.com doesn't have it listed yet.

[Teh Ricer Civic!]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20..._obama-225.html

it updates the tracking polls daily, so its kinda hard to compare those to from the past, but they have dropped. many are now back within statistical insignificance.

[Satty]

I have no clue what the deal is with this picture.

[Drew Dowdell]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20..._obama-225.html

it updates the tracking polls daily, so its kinda hard to compare those to from the past, but they have dropped. many are now back within statistical insignificance.

You have to be careful with RCP. They've had some credibility problems lately and they don't disclose their poll selection methods.

That said, RCP's number is current pretty close to FiveThirtyEight's number running between +6.5 and +7.5. However, that's just for the popular vote and we all know how well that works. +6.5 is not statistically insignificant.

Though mildly close in popular vote, Obama is wiping the floor with McCain on the electoral map.

Most of the EV scenarios have Obama at 360+ with the top two scenarios being 369 and 380. That doesn't make for a very tight race.

[A Horse With No Name]

The real question is, how much of the Reagan era will be swept away by a hugely Democratic Congress, Senate, and president?

Or, in the event that McCain wins, how will he deal with a Democratic house and Senate?

Chris

[Drew Dowdell]

The real question is, how much of the Reagan era will be swept away by a hugely Democratic Congress, Senate, and president?

Or, in the event that McCain wins, how will he deal with a Democratic house and Senate?

Chris

As much as possible I hope.

[Teh Ricer Civic!]

As much as possible I hope.

And the era of the American superpower will slowly fade away... well have to start listening to to the EU... hell we will probably join the EU.

[Drew Dowdell]

And the era of the American superpower will slowly fade away... well have to start listening to to the EU... hell we will probably join the EU.

in case you hadn't noticed, that began 4 to 6 years ago, but we were a super power well before Reagan was president.... so don't go giving him credit for it. I'd go so far as to say we were a super power beginning August 6th, 1945.

The EU isn't organized enough for us to begin listening to them. They've got too much fight amongst themselves going on. If you ever want to make a huge amount of money, invent a way for Europeans to kill each other faster.

No, it's China and Russia we'll have to be listening to.

Reagonmics helped get us into this mess.... it's not going to be the solution that gets us out.

[Cory Wolfe]

I have no clue what the deal is with this picture.

Anywho, besides Drew's entertaining thoughts, this thread gives me a headache.

[A Horse With No Name]

No, it's China and Russia we'll have to be listening to.

Reagonmics helped get us into this mess.... it's not going to be the solution that gets us out.

+1 Bigtime...

Chris

[BigPontiac]

John McCain is a liar!

Here's the proof Meet 'Joe the Plumber'

Joe the plumber (aka Sam Joe Wurzelbacher) doesn't make anywhere near $250,000 a year. John McCain's whole arguements were based on something that John McCain just made up in his head!!!

So I wonder if Joe the Plumber is enjoying his 15 minutes of fame. After the debate it enjoying digging into his background which revealed:

1. No Plumbing License
2. He owes back taxes to OH ($1,200)
3. He has a suspended AZ driver's license which may impact his OH license (owes Mesa, AZ $700)

Link

I wonder if McCain will help him out?

[2005 EquinoxLS]

+1 Bigtime...

Chris

+2.

When will people realize that trickle down DOESNT work?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Satty]

Colin Powell just endorsed Obama. Not just a little endorsement, but he is completely ripping McCain apart.

[A Horse With No Name]

Someone needs to bring this country back to reality....glad Colin could be of service.

Chris

[2005 EquinoxLS]

Colin always seemed to me like a real person. Not just a polititian like most others. That is truly a breakthrough for him to switch partys like that. McCain must have really screwed up. McCain is getting too desperate for his own good.

[Robert Hall]

Colin Powell just endorsed Obama. Not just a little endorsement, but he is completely ripping McCain apart.

That was good to see... I've long resepected him, he's always seemed to be a moderate. It's another sign that the neocon BS that the Republican party is dominated by is running out of gas.

[2005 EquinoxLS]

Its about time people see the Republican party for what it really is. Caring only for the rich and big oil.

[A Horse With No Name]

Its about time people see the Republican party for what it really is. Caring only for the rich and big oil.

+1

Although McCain is back on top in Ohio according to the latest polls, and he is up in Florida also.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

Chris

[Robert Hall]

+1

Although McCain is back on top in Ohio according to the latest polls, and he is up in Florida also.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

Chris

The next 2 weeks are going to be a wild ride, I think... I was back home in Colorado this weekend, talked w/ a lot of friends...it's pretty much neck and neck there...the amount of ads on TV are unreal..

[Satty]

Obama ads outnumber McCain ads like 50-1 around here.

And its being reported that McCain is pulling out of Colorado.

As far as election night goes, we should have a pretty good idea pretty early. If Obama wins Virginia and North Carolina, its as good as over for McCain. I'm going to be a poll worker, so I'll be checking exit polls on my cell phone anytime I can. Should be a fun day.

Edited October 21, 2008 by Satty

[Drew Dowdell]

Note that it's not just Colorado on the chopping block, but also Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. Michigan was conceded some weeks ago. Iowa and New Mexico are on life support. Essentially, McCain seems to be giving up on any path to victory that does not involve Pennsylvania -- a state that we presently project Barack Obama to win by 9.7 points.

The big problem with such a strategy, however, is this:

4,060,647

2,917,747

869,707

Those are the current numbers of registered and active Democrats, Republicans and independents in Pennsylvania. Democrats make up more than half the total -- 52 percent, in fact -- well outdistancing the Republican's 33 percent. Suppose that McCain were to split Pennsylvania's independents with Obama and win Republicans 92-8. He would need to carry 23-24 percent of Pennsylvania's Democrats to win the state; George Bush carried 15 percent.

[A Horse With No Name]

Sad how much support there is for McCain here in Ohio, though. He may loose the election if he takes Ohio, but McCain still has LOTS of support here.

Chris

[Satty]

Obama has Kerry's 252 electoral votes in the bag. He needs 18 to win. Lets look at states Bush won where Obama is polling ahead:

Virginia-13ev

North Carolina-15ev

Florida-27ev

Ohio-20ev

Iowa-7ev

Missouri-11ev

Colorado-9ev

New Mexico-5ev

Nevada-5ev

Iowa in 2004 seems to have been an anomaly, its 7 electoral votes are all but guaranteed for Obama. Colorado+New Mexico+Nevada is the hard way to pick up the remaining 11 he needs. The point is, if Obama wins Virginia (polls close at 7 eastern), its all over, might as well go to bed early.

Edited October 22, 2008 by Satty

[Drew Dowdell]

Iowa is definitely going democrat this year. So that means Obama only has to win one of (Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio or Missouri). Any of the McCain supporters think that Obama can't win at least one of those?

If you see Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida all go Dem... as is currently forecast, Obama will cruise to around 360ev or more.

[Robert Hall]

Iowa is definitely going democrat this year. So that means Obama only has to win one of (Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio or Missouri). Any of the McCain supporters think that Obama can't win at least one of those?

If you see Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida all go Dem... as is currently forecast, Obama will cruise to around 360ev or more.

I wonder when Florida and Ohio last went Democratic in the elections...except for Illinois and Michigan, I think all the states I've lived in the last 38 years have gone Red in the elections when I've lived there..

[Satty]

A landslide is definitely possible. McCain is still stumping hard, so we'll see what happens. Palin is going to be in town on Friday. Tickets sold out so fast that they had to move her appearance from a university gym (a rather small one, I've been in it once and it was roughly the same size as a large high school gym) to the Bass Pro parking lot.

[A Horse With No Name]

Iowa is definitely going democrat this year. So that means Obama only has to win one of (Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio or Missouri). Any of the McCain supporters think that Obama can't win at least one of those?

If you see Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida all go Dem... as is currently forecast, Obama will cruise to around 360ev or more.

Florida should be Obamas saving grace, as a lot of older voters are sick about their 401K's an a lot of Hispanics are pissed with McCain about immigration.

God, I hope Obama wins. I can't wait for this thing to be over.

Chris

[Satty]

I wonder when Florida and Ohio last went Democratic in the elections...except for Illinois and Michigan, I think all the states I've lived in the last 38 years have gone Red in the elections when I've lived there..

Both went for Clinton in '96.

[mustang84]

Today at work the guy next to me had Rush Limbaugh on the radio. Man, I never realized how big of an idiot that guy is. He was talking about how Obama's secret plan is to bring us all into socialism, and the entire time I kept imaging that this must have what the '50s were like when McCarthyism was rampant.

[A Horse With No Name]

But that's how the Republican party Neocons stay around, by manipulating people and there fears.

Which is why hardcore religion and the Neocon Republican right get along sooo well together.

And yes, Rush is an Idiot...but he has millions of idiots that listen to him and vote.

Chris

[siegen]

I have yet to watch the debate, I've been so busy lately. I'm not too concerned though, it's probably nothing new.

I did watch Powell. Damn, he really lays into McCain.

[mustang84]

I have yet to watch the debate, I've been so busy lately. I'm not too concerned though, it's probably nothing new.

I did watch Powell. Damn, he really lays into McCain.

Actually, I thought the 3rd debate was the best of the three. They actually went into detail rather than spouting the same rhetoric.

[Robert Hall]

Actually, I thought the 3rd debate was the best of the three. They actually went into detail rather than spouting the same rhetoric.

Agreed..it was more substantial than the first 2, IMHO. The VP debate was just painful to watch.

[A Horse With No Name]

Agreed on the VP thing!

Chris

[Satty]

The last debate was a great drinking game if you took a shot every time "Joe the Plumber" was mentioned.

[Drew Dowdell]

I'm not usually one to cite outlier polls... but:

Obama + 4.2 in Montana?!

[A Horse With No Name]

Let's hope this holds until November 4th!

Chris

[Satty]

Montana went to Clinton in '92 (thanks most to Ross Perot) and has polled for Obama before. Rasmussen had Obama +5 in July, and within 8 earlier in October. North Dakota has been going back and forth.

[Oracle of Delphi]

Here is what pollster.com says.

http://www.pollster.com

[Satty]

A couple of notes from around the world this morning:

Over a 2 week period, Palin's makeup artist was the highest pair staffer on McCain's campaign.

And you know how McCain says no to sitting down with dictators without preconditions? Oops

Palin is speaking in town today, there were people waiting in line at 2 o'clock this morning, the gates opened at 9, the event starts at 11 and Palin speaks at noon. The worst part is that the event is in the Bass Pro parking lot and I really need to go pick up some Under Armour, but thats out of the question.

[Drew Dowdell]

Palin's plan to bailout department stores.

The Republican National Committee has spent more than $150,000 to clothe and accessorize vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her family since her surprise pick by John McCain in late August.

According to financial disclosure records, the accessorizing began in early September and included bills from Saks Fifth Avenue in St. Louis and New York for a combined $49,425.74.

The records also document a couple of big-time shopping trips to Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis, including one $75,062.63 spree in early September.

The RNC also spent $4,716.49 on hair and makeup through September after reporting no such costs in August.

[Drew Dowdell]

As Ron Popeil would say, "But wait! There's more!"

$75,062.63 spent at Neiman Marcus on Sept. 10.

• $41,850.72 to Saks Fifth Avenue in New York on Sept. 10.

• $7,575.02 to Saks Fifth Avenue in St. Louis on Sept. 10.

• $5,102.71 to Bloomingdale’s in New York on Sept. 10.

• $789.72 to Barney’s New York on Sept. 10.

• Charges of $4,396.94 and $512.92 at Macy’s in Minneapolis on Sept. 10.

• $4,537.85 to Macy’s in Minneapolis on Sept. 22.

• $349.50 to Lord & Taylor in New York on Sept. 25.

• $4,902.08 to Atelier New York, a men’s clothing boutique, on Sept. 10.

• Two separate charges of $98 to Pacifier, a high-end baby store in Minneapolis, on Sept. 10 and Sept. 25.

[Satty]

What you say doesn't matter, since John Murtha says that, as a Western Pennsylvanian, you're racist.

Think thats what they meant when they said Democrats could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

[Drew Dowdell]

But I'm not done yet....

There's even MORE

The Palins' now-famous $150K wardrobe? Some of the stores that show up on the RNC expense report can find no record of the purchases.

Consider also the $4,902.45 charge at Atelier New York, a high-end men’s store, presumably for Ms. Palin’s husband, Todd, the famous First Dude. 47th & 7th? That's the middle of Times Square. I don't think they're selling aggressively directional men's wear at the TKTS booth or Olive Garden. Atelier is in SoHo. Karlo Steel, an owner there, said he had gone through the store’s receipts for September, twice, and found no sales that matched that amount, nor any combination of sales that added up to the total. Because the store carries aggressively directional men’s wear, he caters to a small clientèle and knows most of his customers by name, as well as the history of their purchases.

"Aggressively directional men's wear"? Wazzat? Also: Curious. It's interesting that the Palin's personal shopper, Jeff Larson, also works for the GOP robocalling company responsible for those heinous Obama/Ayers calls. Is that where the money really went?

[Drew Dowdell]

What you say doesn't matter, since John Murtha says that, as a Western Pennsylvanian, you're racist.

Think thats what they meant when they said Democrats could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

Of course we are!

We even carve a backwards "B" into the face (but being careful not to leave a scar) of any Texan daring to take money out of an ATM in our dangerous-yet-oh-so-trendy-and-three-blocks-from-a-big-hospital neighborhood of Bloomfield.

Seriously, this area of town has some of the best ethnic restaurants in around. It's loaded with coffeeshops, cafe's, bakeries, etc. It's one of two areas in town which are a food lover's delight.

Not to say this couldn't have happened.... but it's extremely fishy and SOMEONE would have noticed.

Three blocks from one of the largest hospitals in the region and she doesn't go see a doctor for 3 days after the attack?