Crystal-Ball Gazing

[sciguy_0504]

Just answer me this one question, it is all I want to know:

Does the future look bright?

[turbo200]

1.Any truth to the rumor that the extra space at Wilmington will accomodate 80-110k Camaros???

2.Anyone familiar with the details regarding Camaro/Firebird replacements ONLY being built in Canada?

1. Still a rumor and no confirmation. All signs pointing to a decision soon, and either wilmington or oshawa, both seem to be in running.

2. this is no longer the case. exculsivity contract existed with St. Therese, Quebec plant, but this plant was demolished, and contract went with it.

[turbo200]

160k would rob the Camaro of any aspirational value.  Limit supply, increase demand, increase profits.  160k is sustainable for bread and butter products, and as necessary as the Camaro is to inject some life into GM, it is still a niche product.  Even if demand were 160k, it wouldn't last at those levels for a 5 year run (I'm actually gonna guess Camaro will be closer to a 7 or 8 year run with a light MCE in there...just speculation though).

ETA: Especially given the retro muscle car segment is getting divided up...Dodge, Ford, GM are all vying for a piece of the pie.

aspirational value is not a factor with an everday pony car like the camaro. there will be 22k models and 40k models. the 40k models will have aspiration built into them, they will have in excess of 400 hp and be capable of awesome things. the base models will be base like the Mustang, around everywhere.

160k will probably not be sustainable for years, but demand should be there for the first year. Especially if it comes out like the concept. A 100k vehicle is not technically niche.

[Croc]

I'd say the future should be bright...assuming GM breaks the cycle and doesn't cheap out on stuff. If they really are focused on product, they should be fine.

[Guest Josh]

1) no Wilmington.

2) Much speculation is out there right now. Zeta is figured out so no need to beat each others asses over it now.

Kappa II is something to turn to now.

[Mr.Krinkle]

the plug got pulled on the camaro/firebird about 3/4 years before the mustang redesign. no more money was going to be sunk into the camaro esp after the supposed 200 million that was spent on the front end redisgn.

there was no chance in hell it would compete with the ford.

the last thing they would want now is to have a brand new model and slow sales relative to production.

id guess betweeb 70k and100k to start.

no one is going to want that piece to rot on a lot somewhere.

the overwhelming majority for some reason or another want the camaro built in the USA. im not sure why but thats the sense that seems to pervade.

does this factor into the decision? i havent a clue...only a handful know that for sure.

this is the best so far i can piece together.

zeta seems secure and i bet the floks here in NA cant wait to get their hands on it.

[Hudson]

Oshawa...about 100,000 units....Zeta platform...that's what I've got for you.

[Croc]

That sounds good enough to me. CAW build quality is superior anyhow...

[ZL-1]

Kappa II is something to turn to now.

[91z4me]

Oshawa...about 100,000 units....Zeta platform...that's what I've got for you.

Are we 100% solid on this or has there still been some flip flop between Willmington and Oshawa?

The reason I ask is that Willmington could start re-tooling tomorrow because the L-series line is just collecting dust whereas Oshawa is actually producing cars at both its unibody plants for the next couple of years.

[enzl]

Cool.

I was thinking a SWB Zeta would make sense in Wilmington so that it could eventually replace the current Kappa after its current lifecycle....

With 'only' 200k 'stangs'/year being built, is there room in the marketplace for 160k Camaros? Especially with the Challenger green lighted?

[Hudson]

Are we 100% solid on this or has there still been some flip flop between Willmington and Oshawa? 

The reason I ask is that Willmington could start re-tooling tomorrow because the L-series line is just collecting dust whereas Oshawa is actually producing cars at both its unibody plants for the next couple of years.

This is the current plan. And Oshawa will be reorganized to build Zetas, which is one of the reasons why the Camaro won't be ready next year.

[evok]

1) I was the one to break that Lutz wanted 160k plus for Camaro because why? He thought the market had it in them. He wanted to spark enthusiasm so the program would get approved from the board.

Unless Lutz's your ass puppet, that quote came directly from Uncle Bob in the press.

Edited May 5, 2006 by evok

[enzl]

This is the current plan. And Oshawa will be reorganized to build Zetas, which is one of the reasons why the Camaro won't be ready next year.

E-

am I to understand that the production locale is holding back the intro dates for Zetas? That Aussie photo looked like a near-production ready product....we're going to have to wait another 2-3 years so that GM can clear space at a factory that's already one of the highest quality in the empire?

With the massive underutilized capacity at half-dozen plants, they choose Oshawa?

I don't understand the logic there.

Furthermore, if the Zeta's turn out to be a hit in all of their incarnations, won't capacity constrain actual sales?

[91z4me]

This is the current plan. And Oshawa will be reorganized to build Zetas, which is one of the reasons why the Camaro won't be ready next year.

So has there been talk of something new going to Willmington or would it make sense to assume that it is a part of the 07 contract talks to close the plant?

[CaddyXLR-V]

E-

am I to understand that the production locale is holding back the intro dates for Zetas? That Aussie photo looked like a near-production ready product....we're going to have to wait another 2-3 years so that GM can clear space at a factory that's already one of the highest quality in the empire?

With the massive underutilized capacity at half-dozen plants, they choose Oshawa?

I don't understand the logic there.

Furthermore, if the Zeta's turn out to be a hit in all of their incarnations, won't capacity constrain actual sales?

Well if they built it somewhere else, what would happen to Oshawa once the W bodies die? I dont beleive that is a factory GM would want to leave idle. And since Zeta is kind of replacing the W bodies, it makes sense.

[ZL-1]

Well if they built it somewhere else, what would happen to Oshawa once the W bodies die? I dont beleive that is a factory GM would want to leave idle. And since Zeta is kind of replacing the W bodies, it makes sense.

But it doesn't make sense to leave products based on a dated platform in the market for 2-3 years more if they can be replaced by state-of-the-art products in the very short-run...

Edited May 5, 2006 by ZL-1

[Chazman]

E-

am I to understand that the production locale is holding back the intro dates for Zetas? That Aussie photo looked like a near-production ready product....we're going to have to wait another 2-3 years so that GM can clear space at a factory that's already one of the highest quality in the empire?

Although the Impala will have alot of under the skin commonality with the Commodore, the Camaro and it's platform are still being created. Even if the assembly lines were operational today, Camaro still wouldn't be ready by next year.

[evok]

E-

am I to understand that the production locale is holding back the intro dates for Zetas? That Aussie photo looked like a near-production ready product....we're going to have to wait another 2-3 years so that GM can clear space at a factory that's already one of the highest quality in the empire?

With the massive underutilized capacity at half-dozen plants, they choose Oshawa?

I don't understand the logic there.

Furthermore, if the Zeta's turn out to be a hit in all of their incarnations, won't capacity constrain actual sales?

The "w" MS2000 vehicles are going to be replaced with rwd as will the rest of the the fullsized vehicles.

The Lambda derived platform formerly know as Chi will not spawn the fullsized replacements as was a strong possibility a couple years ago.

This whole issue is a lot more complex and calls for a rebalancing of GMs fullsize vehicle strategy in which the Camaro is just a part of.

The original zeta vehicles for NA prior to the axe falling were just niche vehicles. Today if rwd goes forward, rwd will be a complete line up of volume oriented programs.

As a result, Oshawa 1 and 2 will be consolodated and GM is going to have to increase output (tooling capacity) of rwd powertrains.

Also the Chevy portfolio will have to accomodate the volume decrease in the Impala because of the switch to rwd and price premium compared to the current vehicle. These means that the Malibu plan would have to be tweaked for its new position in the portfolio as the theoretical volume leader.

What has taken place at GM in the last year has been a significant strategy shift from the prior plan. Not only has it taken time to develop the plan but it will take time to develop the product. That time is irrelevent even if the program shares parts with the OZ zeta, shares a complete platform, the existence of available plant space, etc.

Edited May 5, 2006 by evok

[enzl]

The "w" MS2000 vehicles are going to be replaced with rwd as will the rest of the the fullsized vehicles.

The Lambda derived platform formerly know as Chi will not spawn the fullsized replacements as was a strong possibility a couple years ago.

This whole issue is a lot more complex and calls for a rebalancing of GMs fullsize vehicle strategy in which the Camaro is just a part of.

The original zeta vehicles for NA prior to the axe falling were just niche vehicles.  Today if rwd goes forward, rwd will be a complete line up of volume oriented programs.

As a result, Oshawa 1 and 2 will be consolodated and GM is going to have to increase output (tooling capacity) of rwd powertrains.

Also the Chevy portfolio will have to accomodate the volume decrease in the Impala because of the switch to rwd and price premium compared to the current vehicle.  These means that the Malibu plan would have to be tweaked for its new position in the portfolio as the theoretical volume leader.

What has taken place at GM in the last year has been a significant strategy shift from the prior plan.  Not only has it taken time to develop the plan but it will take time to develop the product.  That time is irrelevent even if the program shares parts with the OZ zeta, shares a complete platform, the existence of available plant space, etc.

Gotcha.

The rethink threw everything off...that makes alot of sense.

Is it fair to say that the Mustang and LX's runaway success gave GM the real world proof it needed to pursue the new direction? It seems like the timing of the rethink would point to that...

...and, unfortunately, another piece of anecdotal evidence that GM doesn't have a framework in place to lead in the marketplace of ideas.

[evok]

Gotcha.

The rethink threw everything off...that makes alot of sense.

Is it fair to say that the Mustang and LX's runaway success gave GM the real world proof it needed to pursue the new direction? It seems like the timing of the rethink would point to that...

...and, unfortunately, another piece of anecdotal evidence that GM doesn't have a framework in place to lead in the marketplace of ideas.

It might take an extra 1-2 years + as they cadence the programs into place but like DCX, these vehicles should be very profitable as GM can run a large bandwidth on price.

And yes, this rethink threw everything off. The original zeta vehicle would have been here a year from today. But I like their strategy of main stream rwd as opposed to the original set of niche vehicles.

But like you said, why was this not done from the get go. That is what bothers me the most. The good news is, in theory they might have it right this time. They might not have beat Chrysler but they sure might beat everyone else.

And Bill Ford and Mark Fields - why no 4 - door Mustang derived product yet?

[91z4me]

evok and those who might know, is there a very large amount of commonality between the holden VE platform and Sigma? The most recent spy photos of a silver SWB ve share a huge resemblence with the most recent spy photo an amature got of the 08 CTS.

Just curious how related they will be under the skin.

[evok]

evok and those who might know, is there a very large amount of commonality between the holden VE platform and Sigma?  The most recent spy photos of a silver SWB ve share a huge resemblence with the most recent spy photo an amature got of the 08 CTS.

Just curious how related they will be under the skin.

There are growing pins with the platform last I heard. We shall see what actually comes of it.

[ZL-1]

But I like their strategy of main stream rwd as opposed to the original set of niche vehicles.

With the right styling, a definite IMO

91z4me's question is very interesting: I'd like to see GM's RWD cars sharing a lot with each other. Have the basic engineering aiming at state-of-the-art and differenciate with less expensive components for the volume products.

And Bill Ford and Mark Fields - why no 4 - door Mustang derived product yet?

Yeah, first they kill the LS, then all of a sudden they start talking about a 4-door Mustang derived product, which I believe is on the same platform as the LS they just killed. Ford sometimes seems to be a little off, or lacking direction... Edited May 5, 2006 by ZL-1

[91z4me]

Yeah, first they kill the LS, then all of a sudden they start talking about a 4-door Mustang derived product, which I believe is on the same platform as the LS they just killed. Ford sometimes seems to be a little off, or lacking direction...

The LS was on Dew98 which the Mustang's DC2 was supposed be a cheaper version of, if memory serves, but with all the changes that were made Ford'd DC2 is effectively totally different than Dew98. That is a crying shame because Dew98 could have created a whole group of RWD Lincoln and Mercury RWD sedans, coupes, and wagons but Jag didn't want any part of that and wanted to keep it in the PAG only.

[ZL-1]

The LS was on Dew98 which the Mustang's DC2 was supposed be a cheaper version of, if memory serves, but with all the changes that were made Ford'd DC2 is effectively totally different than Dew98.  That is a crying shame because Dew98 could have created a whole group of RWD Lincoln and Mercury RWD sedans, coupes, and wagons but Jag didn't want any part of that and wanted to keep it in the PAG only.

Thanks for clearing that up. I wasn't aware that it became something entirely different.

[ehaase]

And Bill Ford and Mark Fields - why no 4 - door Mustang derived product yet?

What do you think of this blurb from today's Car Connection?

Is Ford Eyeing Aussie Exports?

Ford announced on Thursday that its Australian operations would benefit from $1 billion in investment in the next decade. And in a carefully worded press release, Ford hinted that it may see its Down Under ops in the same way GM now views Holden — as a hothouse for future American-style muscle cars and rear-drive sedans. Ford confirmed in its release that its Australian Falcon/Territory sedans and utes would be the basis for new vehicles drawn from its “globally competitive large rear-wheel-drive vehicle platform.” Ford also said that its Australian team would begin to design vehicles for left-hand-drive applications. Ford will spend some of the $1 billion on establishing Australia as its “center of excellence” for the Asia Pacific and Africa region. The center will be charged first with developing a new global light commercial vehicle architecture that will spawn commercial vehicles for use in 80 countries.

[evok]

What do you think of this blurb from today's Car Connection?

Is Ford Eyeing Aussie Exports?

Ford announced on Thursday that its Australian operations would benefit from $1 billion in investment in the next decade. And in a carefully worded press release, Ford hinted that it may see its Down Under ops in the same way GM now views Holden — as a hothouse for future American-style muscle cars and rear-drive sedans. Ford confirmed in its release that its Australian Falcon/Territory sedans and utes would be the basis for new vehicles drawn from its “globally competitive large rear-wheel-drive vehicle platform.” Ford also said that its Australian team would begin to design vehicles for left-hand-drive applications. Ford will spend some of the $1 billion on establishing Australia as its “center of excellence” for the Asia Pacific and Africa region. The center will be charged first with developing a new global light commercial vehicle architecture that will spawn commercial vehicles for use in 80 countries.

Typical monkey see (GM)...monkey do (Ford). If people on this board think GM's product planning folks are bad, all of Ford's should be fired yesterday, IMO.

I have heard rumours for a while about this but I still have nothing concrete.

We also know deep down this was coming from Ford.

But since Fields is new I will cut him some slack.

[bowtie_dude]

I love evok brain-picking threads.

[buickguy]

what is the Buick Zeta going to be? Has anyone seen it?? A convertible?

[Croc]

what is the Buick Zeta going to be?  Has anyone seen it??  A convertible?

To answer these questions:

1) As of now, a sedan

2) No

3) Not that I'm aware of, though if evok has more current information, let's cross the fingers that a Velite-like Riviera is in the works...

[Chazman]

For right now, Velite is dead.

[Chazman]

That would fit with what guionM said about Buick and its "Let's not scare the old people" mentality.

I can guarantee you that if the Velite concept had been approved...it would not have been for young people.

[Chazman]

And here's another thing. Will a Northstar fit in the large Zetas? I'm sure they would need to...but I was just wondering.

[Trimnell1]

I can guarantee you that if the Velite concept had been approved...it would not have been for young people.

Yeah, I'm thinking that if a Zeta Velite had been approved it would have very few options, only one very powerful engine available, a relaxed cruiser personality, and a pricetag in the high $30 Gs to low $40 Gs. Definitely NOT a car being aimed for the younger crowd. The current Northstar V-8 may or may not fit in Zeta, but by the time they go on sale here I don't think we have to worry about the current Northstar.

[91z4me]

What do you think of this blurb from today's Car Connection?

Is Ford Eyeing Aussie Exports?

Ford announced on Thursday that its Australian operations would benefit from $1 billion in investment in the next decade. And in a carefully worded press release, Ford hinted that it may see its Down Under ops in the same way GM now views Holden — as a hothouse for future American-style muscle cars and rear-drive sedans. Ford confirmed in its release that its Australian Falcon/Territory sedans and utes would be the basis for new vehicles drawn from its “globally competitive large rear-wheel-drive vehicle platform.” Ford also said that its Australian team would begin to design vehicles for left-hand-drive applications. Ford will spend some of the $1 billion on establishing Australia as its “center of excellence” for the Asia Pacific and Africa region. The center will be charged first with developing a new global light commercial vehicle architecture that will spawn commercial vehicles for use in 80 countries.

I know that Ford AUS' BA architecture was not engineered for LHD because it didn't do nearly the export work that Holden has done with its V-car but WHY not at lease spend a little extra cash and then bring the architecture to a plant in the US? That seemed like a HUGE bonehead move!

BTW I would have a tough decision deciding between a 6.3 Gen IV V8 Zeta sedan or coupe vs a 6.2 Hurricane powered BA Falcon despite my being a GM guy.

[evok]

what is the Buick Zeta going to be?  Has anyone seen it??  A convertible?

Think the obvious! No!! A No!

[Northstar]

And here's another thing. Will a Northstar fit in the large Zetas? I'm sure they would need to...but I was just wondering.

Why couldn't they use LSx engines?

If the Northstar fits in the STS I'm sure it could fit in a Buick Zeta.

[Chazman]

If the Northstar fits in the STS I'm sure it could fit in a Buick Zeta.

I'm sure it will too. I just don't remember anyone using the word Zeta and Northstar (or it's replacement) in the same sentence before.

[wildcat]

evok: Since the Zeta Buick is a large sedan, will it replace or be sold alongside Lucerne? Does GM feel the need to offer anything but large Buicks? Is a small or midsize Buick Theta crossover still a possibility? I understand about the limited market a Velite-type convertible would have, but isn't GM (as they did with the LaCrosse concept) failing to capitalize on positive press and public reaction to a Buick?

[evok]

I'm sure it will too. I just don't remember anyone using the word Zeta and Northstar (or it's replacement) in the same sentence before.

I am guessing but I would not be so sure. It does not fit in the CTS.

[Chazman]

I am guessing but I would not be so sure.  It does not fit in the CTS.

An oversight on GM's part. Something that will be fixed in '08.

[Hudson]

evok: Since the Zeta Buick is a large sedan, will it replace or be sold alongside Lucerne?

Replace.

[Trimnell1]

An oversight on GM's part. Something that will be fixed in '08.

The fact that the Northstar could not fit into the CTS engine bay is one of the reasons why GMX-322 has been widened. That and GM wanted to put all three Sigma vehicles onto the Sigma-wide platform used by the STS and SRX, so there could be more commonality among all three. The big question is if GM will use a Northstar variant as either a mid-level sport model or the V-series model, or will Cadillac continue using an LSX V-8 for the NG CTS-V even though it will be able to fit the Northstar.

As for Zeta, I'm guessing there will be usage of both the LSX engines as well as the Northstar's replacement. The current Northstar is a huge, bulky, heavy engine (I know because I have one) that makes it hard to install in many vehicles, so hopefully the Northstar successor isn't too far away so that GM has a good variety of V-8 engines to choose from. Chevy would get the LSX V-8s while Buick recieved the DOHC V-8s.

[turbo200]

so with all this news of Buick and Chevy Zeta and Eps product.....Pontiac is being completely pushed out of the picture? It doesn't make sense that they would stop funding for NG G6 on EP II, but that's what some here are claiming. Evok or any insider, can you clear this up? Also, since CTS is being widened and nicened, is it moving upscale to make room for a smaller, hopefully RWD BLS to make it our way? Josh, what's your opinion on Kappa II forming the base of BLS, since you seem to talk about it a lot like it is in planning....

[wildcat]

Since Velite is dead (so be it, at least I won't have to read any more new threads asking "When is the Buick convertible coming?"), what should GM do for a halo car for Buick?

turbo200: Not much to be envious about with Buick and Zeta. After three years of hoping by many people, evidently no Velite convertible. At one point, Zeta was said to be of prime importance to Buick... but look how it stands at this time: one car, not even in a new segment, just one 4-door sedan replacing another. < sigh >

Hudson: Thank you for the reply. What is the likelihood that the name "Lucerne" will be retained, given all the positive reviews the car has received recently, the quick turnaround on dealers' lots, the high proportion of retail vs. fleet sales, etc.?

At the risk of starting again from scratch, I wish that they would call it "Invicta" (rather than "Lucerne" or, as Bob Lutz mentioned, "Statesman"), so it's not a total carbon copy of the Holden Statesman including in name, and it could seem like they --for once-- considered the opinions of longtime Buick fans when naming a vehicle.

[Hudson]

Hudson: Thank you for the reply.  What is the likelihood that the name "Lucerne" will be retained, given all the positive reviews the car has received recently, the quick turnaround on dealers' lots, the high proportion of retail vs. fleet sales, etc.? 

Hard to say four years out, but my guess is that Lucerne would be a good name for it.

[Mr.Krinkle]

there are big plans for buick. i dont know how or what but they have a lot going for them. good quality, good cars, good rep. its just a matter of applyinf these attributes that seems to be the trcky part. i have no doubt they will let this brand fail us.

if you want to go back almost a hundred years, it was buicks money that enabled the purchase of cadillac.

time to reapy the loan.

Edited May 6, 2006 by Mr.Krinkle

[Cortazzo]

This is the current plan. And Oshawa will be reorganized to build Zetas, which is one of the reasons why the Camaro won't be ready next year.

Makes a lot of sense if they don't build a pontiac sedan to replace the grand prix there. I think oshawa has 400k unit capacity. Between impala and camaro that would be 300-350k units w/ enough extra for a buick or something.

I had hope that gm could squeeze camaro in one of its many sites w/ its flexible prodduction system before my 2009, but i guess not.

[Cortazzo]

There are growing pins with the platform last I heard.  We shall see what actually comes of it.

I read that zeta has gained a lot of weight, the last thing we need in an era of increased scrutiny on fuel economy. I have confidence based on the quality of the product coming out now that GM's new products will be really great.

And I'm glad they finally decided to focus on desirable volume products. Their niche strategy of vehicles like the SSR and the kappas, while cool vehicles, won't make GM profitable again.