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G. David Felt

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Everything posted by G. David Felt

  1. The whole ICE auto industry started out the same way. Also as my example for simplicity sake of how the same size battery in a Bolt or Volt would triple the range. Many OEM builders if they can still have 238 miles of fast charging in less than 6 minutes, they will reduce the size of the battery by 2/3 rds and save a ton of weight, money and space making the auto much lighter and as such in the example of the BOLT. 238 miles would increase to almost 300 miles by the weight reduction. No matter what ones feeling are about EV versus ICE, the world is moving to EV auto's and ICE is going to go away. Makes sense from a less maintenance standpoint, makes sense from an eventual less cost stand point too as economy of scale takes over. Interesting times we live in and this will all shake out over the next 5 yrs.
  2. Battery Density Starting to Surpass Moore's Law Something old is new, the picture above is the first Thomas Edison Storage Battery. This was an Alkaline Battery that he started developing in 1890 and completed in 1903. As the Auto industry started up, Edison felt that electric auto's was a superior way to go versus steam, gas or any other form that was being played with. Edison found the traditional battery to be toxic, heavy and short life with only average energy storage. In 1903 Edison declaring his battery finished showed off his potassium hydroxide battery that would react with the Iron / Nickel electrodes creating a battery that was reliable and rechargeable. This battery also was 3 times as dense energy wise as traditional lead-acid batteries. Those building electric auto's flocked to buying Edison's batteries. Sadly due to various issues of leakage post manufacturing, electric auto companies did not get the long term benefit they had hoped for and went back to using cheaper to produce lead-acid batteries and Edison closed his battery plant in 1908 and Edison who was friends with Henry Ford acknowledged that the electric auto had lost to the Model T Car. While Edison's battery was of too low a voltage for ICE Auto's to use starting in 1912 when electric start began, they were profitable due to their long life and reliability that allowed them to be used in railroad crossing signs and especially in lamps for use in the mines. These batteries once Edison had fixed the packaging issue became his biggest moneymaker. Now you might ask why the History lesson? Battery density has been a slow but growing segment and many in the computer industry has felt that we are on the cusp of starting to use Moore's law for CPU's in regards to batteries. Reminder ( Moore's law is the observation that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years.) Recently, I posted about Toshiba's Generation 2 SCiB batteries that have tripled the density while maintaining charge times using a Titanium Niobium Oxide Anode to charge the battery. Researchers at the University of Maryland in partnership with Brook-haven National Laboratory looked to what had been invented in the past, the issues that existed and if they could possibly improve upon them to overcome limitations to allow a new product to come to market fast. Here is where Edison's battery comes into play as he had already figured out how to triple the density of the battery, but not how to improve the voltage recharge time as the batteries were slow to recharge. The short answer for those not wanting to look at the scientific paper listed below or download the document file is that they have designed due to current technology a new cathode material (Iron Triflouride) that triples energy density of Lithium-ion batteries while reducing recharge times greatly in a stable battery package. As the picture above shows, a traditional button 2032 battery now has triple the energy density of the original battery. Think of your laptop or cell phone battery that would now give you three times as much life before recharging is needed. The end result is that only a year ago we had batteries with a certain density and now 12 months later we are seeing proto types of batteries in their same size but three times as dense. Consider a Chevy Volt in it's current battery pack of 54 miles now 162 mile range or a Chevy BOLT's battery pack of 238 miles now 714 miles. The future is looking shockingly BRIGHT for long range batteries for all sorts of technology from cell-phones, laptop computers to other forms of portable electronics and especially electric auto's. Edison Alkaline Battery Info Iron Triflouride scientific paper release
  3. Interesting story on Oil and why by 2020, analyst are thinking that a barrel of Oil will be between 150 to $200 a barrel due to demand in the Asian rim, specifically China. This is also not just because their car market is taking off. https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1117681_oil-prices-could-double-by-2020-boosting-electric-car-sales
  4. Since China has already set dates for the end of ICE Auto's, I totally agree with cutting the free cash and let the automakers duke it out on the quality of their auto they build. I do like the idea of a rebate for building an EV or Hybrid auto based on how far it can travel. Heck, best way to spend some tax dollars would be to use the incentive to pay gas stations to install and convert over to charging stations.
  5. Do you think the connection issue is due to your phone being older and out of date with the camera? ?
  6. @jeepsterkj What are your thoughts and plans for the UK with them planning to ban Diesel auto's and phase out totally all ICE Auto sales in the future?
  7. Totally agree with the uninstall unneeded aps or at least on the Samsung phones, so easy to truly end the app running when your done. Running in the background so chews up battery life. I like that my Note 8 still has a stereo jack port, yet I rarely use it and my headphones are good ones but I just do not see a reason to spend the money on wireless ones when I so rarely use them.
  8. Cool review, learned some good things and it is nice to see that it has visually improved over the last gen. Not as snappy looking at the 6th gen as you point out, but way better than it could have been for a mid cycle refresh. Hyundai, needs to really step up their own styling and bring it to the game if this car is still here for the next generation version.
  9. Welcome to C&G, look forward to interacting with you on auto's.
  10. I also changed from my Note 3 to a Note 8, awesome upgrade I will say. New Phones rock.
  11. So Sad that due to technology we are in a sense isolating ourselves from society and human interaction. I have accepted my confirmation text messages, but I am still a face to face meeting kind of guy. If we are going to have a Skype meeting, then webcam a requirement. Seeing people is very important especially if decisions are being made that have impact on products, jobs, etc. I like to see the body language.
  12. Some VERY COOL Vehicles
  13. I wonder why OEMs are not taking these companies up on using their motors, controllers, etc. to convert existing auto's to EV's. This just makes so much sense to get an ev auto out with minimal retooling either as a FWD, RWD or AWD auto. ?
  14. Tesla is already last on the market. I wrote up this story Oct 24th 2017 about a Chinese company that took Tesla's open source EV plans, built a CUV and is already building and selling their EV version of a Tesla in China.
  15. Latest New England Journal of Medicine studies find the average partner in the US wants 8.5" long. Guess you do know what a partner wants!
  16. This totally makes sense and frees up much needed R&D dollars to allow Volvo to lead in the Hybrid / EV space of auto's. Very SMART MOVE!
  17. Electrification Future of the US by NREL Electric technology, specifically EV Auto's is a love hate relationship for people in the United States. Some love the simplicity, reduced maintenance and ease of using an EV Auto and others hate them with the attitude being the current internal combustion engine auto has served us fine for 100 plus years, why do we need to change. No matter how one feels on the subject, there is no denying the fact that energy consumption is rising in the United States and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory government group just released their latest study and the end result is that EV autos are expected to drive a 38% rise in electricity demand that will lead to a sustained absolute growth of 80 terawatt-hours per year of electricity demand. NREL says that utilities will go from a stagnant power demand to a compound annual growth rate of 1.6% which amounts to a sustained absolute growth of 80 terawatt-hours per year. NREL does caution that more research is needed and that while EV autos have gotten off to a slow start in the US, once more models become available giving consumers greater choice it will not be out of line to have over 7 million EV auto's on the roads in America by 2025 up from the 567,000 at the end of 2016. NREL says that as the transportation sector becomes fully electrified, it will result in a minimum of $6 trillion dollars in investments across the country. The NREL report points to one benefit as a possibility of "expanded value streams enabled by electric and/or grid-connected technologies." NREL analysis also points out that the boom in EV autos will "dramatically shift load shapes" with shifting peak demands that "could have significant impacts on electric utility planning, grid operations, reliability assessments and electric markets." The greatest change in peak demand will come in the midwest and northeast as those areas catch up to the west coast. The NREL analysis points to these key findings by 2050 on the high scenario side: 240 million light-duty cars and trucks 7 million medium and heavy-duty electric trucks 80,000 electric transit buses These EV autos would account for 76% of vehicle miles traveled in 2050. This is just one sector of the 151 page report that also covers other items like the buildings and industrial sectors with heat pumps, water heaters, heating, etc.. One point that the NREL analysis points out is that as electrical demand soars, fuel side will reduce for gasoline, diesel and natural gas. Natural gas is the one area that would see a reduction on one side but an increase on the other due to gas fired electrical production increases. This is to be studied in a future report. This EFS or Electrification Futures Study has the following scope best shown by this table: This study is a very big factual review of where we have been, where we are today and where we expect to go in the future. This is based on sound science of facts that have allowed the NREL to make valid analysis for the sake of business investments based on plans for the future. Click the link below to gain access to the 151 page analysis if you wish to better understand the US electrical consumption for today and into the future. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71500.pdf
  18. https://heavy.com/social/2018/07/free-slurpee-day-2018-711-rules/ Free Slurpee day today from 11am to 7pm
  19. LOL, my friend you must be thinking regular Escalade which is 204", I drive the ESV which is 222" I be right there with you on the long length. Wife drives the TB SS. Course I grew up driving the Family Station wagon, 1976 Olds 98 which was 232.2" long. So length never mattered to me.
  20. http://www.wardsauto.com/dealers/auto-dealership-mystery-shopping-indicates-which-brands-rock Great read on the brands success by Mystery Shoppers. Loved the statement that Tesla salespeople are like museum curators, answering questions but doing nothing to really sell the brand and build rapport and satisfaction. What are your thoughts?
  21. Auto Dealership Websites, Winning your Purchase According to a Cox Automotive survey, 83% of auto consumers prefer at least one online function from a dealerships website and 85% are more likely to buy from a dealership that allows website users to digitally buy a vehicle even if they do not currently opt to complete the whole purchase online. The importance of the website today compared to the early 90's when people might be more likely to balk at spending money on a website with features like this is making a drastic change in how consumers shop. How do you feel about shopping for an auto via the dealerships website? Wards Story
  22. We are in the Golden Age of Auto's with a revolution that will see the gentle passing of ICE Auto's as they are replaced by the EV Auto. With today's small 2% plus market share, the EV auto is having a major impact on auto suppliers. According to the director of product development, filtration and engine peripherals J.D. Kehoe of Mahle Filter Systems of North America, the ICE downsizing, 48V Hybridization and electric traction motors are affecting the development of future powertrains. Mahle's corporate strategy is to keep on top of all trends supporting the wide variety of options and yet that also comes with the added danger that if you make the wrong call, a company could be on the hook for millions of dollars in parts cost if they build and support the wrong tech version of any given powertrain. You have the success of the Chevrolet Bolt, Nissan Leaf and Tesla making up the 2-3% of global deliveries today and by 2023 the auto industry expects to have 205 EV models on the market replacing many ICE models. Manufactures have a wide range that specify from 200V to 400V based on the battery packs with each electric motor up to 134HP depending on vehicle design. Mahle has grown their EV portfolio to off EV-oriented technology to OEM customers from high-voltage liquid cooled electric traction motors that operate in the 400V to 800V range with power output up to 240HP with unlimited lifetimes as they are brushless designs that require little to no maintenance and they are working to increase their motors power density to have offerings up to supercar level. Mahle offers 48V IPM synchronous electric motors that can operate in a range of 42V to 52V to meet the needs of various designs for mild hybrid applications. Areas of instant growth that Mahle and other auto suppliers are hiring for is in needs of electric AC and heater systems that are low voltage demanding along with leak detection devices as all the new closed system EV systems have a new wave of monitoring to optimize performance / efficiency. Example of this is the need to monitor battery-cell electrolytes that must not come in contact with water or humidity from the cooling system. While powertrains are expected to reduce as much as 75% in complexity and parts compared to ICE powertrains, electronics are expected to expand greatly in the various uses from monitoring subsystems to safety and occupant comfort. As auto companies look to reduce weight, use new technology material like carbon fiber and high strength plastics the needs to adjust and change quickly means the nimble suppliers will win the evolving change in consumer / commercial auto's. Wards Auto Story Mahle web site
  23. Many will not acknowledge that we are already in a downturn of an economy, yet the numbers do not lie. Lucky is that the auto industry is better prepared than ever for a downturn and thinning the rank n file workers to adjust to minimize loss is now very doable. According to the story listed below, middle of next year if we stay even with what we are doing now we will then have the longest ever prosperity time surpassing the one in the 90's. We clearly have a tradeware and the auto industry is already reduced parts / supplies 8% and are continuing to reduce to adjust for the onhand inventory of finished auto's. Rebates are up at an all time high for many models. Adaptation and workforce flexibility is the key to surviving the next depression. http://www.wardsauto.com/industry-voices/industry-better-prepared-adapt-downturn
  24. Yes, both Apple and Windows have done well for consistency and simplicity. I also hate the various distros and weird one off things that tend to break the Linux world. Hadoop is a nightmare due to this.
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