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Hypothetical

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It's 2012 and alternative fuels are widely available. Ethanol has taken 25% of gasoline's market and Bio-diesel is common across the nation both as a motor fuel and for home heatng use. Fuel cell/ electrics are offered by all major manufacturers and home re-fueling is an affordable option for them as well as the increasing number of Hydrogen-fueled ICE cars. Record numbers of wind farms are operational, new nuclear plants are finally being built, and solar is coming into its own.

CAFE really looks silly at this point.

BTW: crude oil prices are dropping - steadily.

So where will the automakers be?

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I'd say that GM is riding high with everything they have running on either pure ethonal or continuing on E85, and of course all the diesels are biofuel compatible. Ford is doing well with their hybrids and FFV stuff (afterall, they've had flex fuel stuff for a while now), and of course the PowerStroke engines are running on biofuel. Chrysler is getting along well also running lots of electrics and ethonal powered rides. Toyota lagged behind and is still pushing hybrids, but nothing running on Ethonal, or E85 for that matter. Honda is of course running full electrics and hybrids, and trying to move away from gasoline engines all together. Nissan is following quickly on the heels of Honda with progress in full electric vehicles and also making great headway with fuel cell rides.

At least that's what I say, but who knows, I could be wrong, but that would be a pretty great future to me.

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Right where they are now, the general public depends on what it's used to. I.E the internal combustion engine as we currently know it. People are so in the habit of saying "fill it up, regular" People know V6's V8's 4 cylinders etc. I highly doubt within 4 years time this is going to drastically change. Even today with hybrids, the end result is still a vehicle that relies on a gasoline powered engine. Now maybe this is ignorance, or perhaps I'm blind to the issue with our natural resources quickly going away...but you wont find me in anything other than a "normal car" meaning either V6 or V8 GASOLINE powered, why? It is what I am used to. It is what I know, and it is what I will continue to use until none are left to drive. With the prospect of oil prices coming way down, I see absolutely no reason why people as a whole will switch to a relatively new type of car, when what they're used to is still being produced.

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Right where they are now, the general public depends on what it's used to. I.E the internal combustion engine as we currently know it. People are so in the habit of saying "fill it up, regular" People know V6's V8's 4 cylinders etc. I highly doubt within 4 years time this is going to drastically change. Even today with hybrids, the end result is still a vehicle that relies on a gasoline powered engine. Now maybe this is ignorance, or perhaps I'm blind to the issue with our natural resources quickly going away...but you wont find me in anything other than a "normal car" meaning either V6 or V8 GASOLINE powered, why? It is what I am used to. It is what I know, and it is what I will continue to use until none are left to drive. With the prospect of oil prices coming way down, I see absolutely no reason why people as a whole will switch to a relatively new type of car, when what they're used to is still being produced.

But that's the point.

Those same cars can run on ethanol, bio-diesel and hydrogen.

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Well you have to think that E85 still relies on gasoline as a component. Besides ethonal by itself is just like gasoline, it'll run in an internal combustion engine without too much trouble. GM in Brazil has been building engines that run on ethonal for years now, why can't we do it too once the infrastructure is in place to deliver the product.

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Well you have to think that E85 still relies on gasoline as a component. Besides ethonal by itself is just like gasoline, it'll run in an internal combustion engine without too much trouble. GM in Brazil has been building engines that run on ethonal for years now, why can't we do it too once the infrastructure is in place to deliver the product.

We can.

Here's how:

http://www.cheersandgears.com/forums/index...showtopic=21988

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Exactly what I was thinking Camino, I read the article earlier today and I agree with it wholeheartedly

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to paraphrase a great statement I heard once

"People tend to over-estimate how much change will occur in a longer period of time, but then tend to under-estimate how much change will occur in a shorter amount of time."

By 2012, Volt should have been out a year or two, and GM would like be getting ready to offer an e-flex variation with other forms of generator on board. I don't forsee hydrogen vehicles being at all common by then, but who knows - maybe they'll be where the Prius was when the 2nd (US) gen first came out - not a ton of people have 'em yet, but they start to quickly catch on. I think the number of E85 compatible vehicles will skyrocket, as that's probably the easiest way to play the CAFE game. I could see biodiesel being more readily available, and pushed in a more mainstream way.

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Yes.

But the real point of my hypothetical was to think about who will be ready, and who will be caught with their pants down.

If GM follows the GME recipe, they will just be offering outmoded Euroasian econo-junk.

Zeta will be a memory and miss this opportunity.

$1/gal. ethanol means we can drive what we want again.

We all need to make it happen, and push for Hydrogen in ICEs as well.

The tech is out there, we just need the nuts and bolts to make it real.

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I think realistically, we wont begin to see a noticeable shift from today's mainstream cars to the cars of tomorrow until at least the mid teens. I think 2012 is still too early, I would suggest more along the lines of '15, my reasoning, by then Volt will have been around for a few years, possibly going into a second generation by that point, every other automaker will have it's own Volt either in production or soon to be released, just as the Prius basically catapulted the hybrid race.

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I think realistically, we wont begin to see a noticeable shift from today's mainstream cars to the cars of tomorrow until at least the mid teens. I think 2012 is still too early, I would suggest more along the lines of '15, my reasoning, by then Volt will have been around for a few years, possibly going into a second generation by that point, every other automaker will have it's own Volt either in production or soon to be released, just as the Prius basically catapulted the hybrid race.

Don't forget that GM has already put 2.5 million E85 cars on the road.

This change will be progressive, but the greatest possible impact in the shortest time will come from ethanol.

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So where will the automakers be?

In India figuring out how to out-cheap the Nano. It'll be difficult.

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Wait, I just thought of something... This CAFE rule represents ALL vehicles (petrol, ethanol, diesel, hydrogen, electric), right?

Doesn't E85 burn much cleaner than petrol, produce more power, and only solicit a small gain in MPG? Because, if it does burn much cleaner with little MPG gain, CAFE should be measuring the dirtiness of the emissions per minute or something, not how quick the engine burns fuel.

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It's 2012 and alternative fuels are widely available. Ethanol has taken 25% of gasoline's market and Bio-diesel is common across the nation both as a motor fuel and for home heatng use. Fuel cell/ electrics are offered by all major manufacturers and home re-fueling is an affordable option for them as well as the increasing number of Hydrogen-fueled ICE cars. Record numbers of wind farms are operational, new nuclear plants are finally being built, and solar is coming into its own.

CAFE really looks silly at this point.

BTW: crude oil prices are dropping - steadily.

So where will the automakers be?

I still think there is a lot of dollar and speculation to do than supply and demand regarding crude oil prices.

Once alternate money making options are available to the speculators and oil nations, this will abate. I still firmly believe that oil needs competitor and once that is done, it will be a price war between those two, and car manufacturers will have no option but to produce both.

In India figuring out how to out-cheap the Nano. It'll be difficult.

Unless we build them in sweat shops or offer for free.

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It's 2012 and alternative fuels are widely available. Ethanol has taken 25% of gasoline's market and Bio-diesel is common across the nation both as a motor fuel and for home heatng use. Fuel cell/ electrics are offered by all major manufacturers and home re-fueling is an affordable option for them as well as the increasing number of Hydrogen-fueled ICE cars. Record numbers of wind farms are operational, new nuclear plants are finally being built, and solar is coming into its own.

CAFE really looks silly at this point.

BTW: crude oil prices are dropping - steadily.

So where will the automakers be?

GM went extinct in November of 2011 after CEO PCS ran the company into the iceburg full steam ahead by selling rebadged Tata Nanos as the new Chevy Camaro. SS versions get racing stripes and faux leather shift knobs but maintain their 33hp engines. Cadillac sold off to Honda/Acura who was desperately looking for a premium image.

Ford releases an updated version of the Taurus that runs on BS. At the last minute changes the name to Fairmont.

Chrysler sold to Electrolux of Sweeden just for laughs*. Volvo merges into Chrysler.

Toyota builds best EVAR Camry. Now runs purely on a mixture of engine sludge, recycled camshafts and PR.

Honda builds builds most reliable Accord ever. Hybrid now available in a lovely shade of Soylent green.

BMW releases new God powered 3-series sporting bold new exterior design and classic interior that harks back to 1993. Fanboys and automotive journalists all die simultaneously from the orgasm.

*do your research as to why this would be funny.

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Wait, I just thought of something... This CAFE rule represents ALL vehicles (petrol, ethanol, diesel, hydrogen, electric), right?

Doesn't E85 burn much cleaner than petrol, produce more power, and only solicit a small gain in MPG? Because, if it does burn much cleaner with little MPG gain, CAFE should be measuring the dirtiness of the emissions per minute or something, not how quick the engine burns fuel.

Just like the rest of CAFE's ill-crafted, ill conceived application, its relation to alternative fuels and propulsion is arbitrary,fluid, and short-sighted. Credits for flex-fuel cars are set to expire in the future, and no 1 to1 credit exists for other alternatives. Like its supporters, it is worthless given the reality.

CAFE has nothing to do with emissions, that's EPA.

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:AH-HA_wink: hypothetically, when gasoline falls out of favor as the major fuel (which i predict ill see in my lifetime) prices should drop dramatically... while it may become a niche market, as long as gasoline is still being produced, its more of an excuse to pickup land yacht 70's boats with single digit MPG ratings...

as long as some good old cars are still around...

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CAFE has nothing to do with emissions, that's EPA.

Exactly!

Why does fuel economy matter to the government? If we want better MPGs, we'll buy it because the industry will offer it. We don't need CAFE to tell us we need more economical cars. Basically what I'm reading is that CAFE is coming in to say, "Hey, I think people want to get more MPGs out of their cars, so force the automakers to do that." It's really not helping anything.

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Exactly!

Why does fuel economy matter to the government? If we want better MPGs, we'll buy it because the industry will offer it. We don't need CAFE to tell us we need more economical cars. Basically what I'm reading is that CAFE is coming in to say, "Hey, I think people want to get more MPGs out of their cars, so force the automakers to do that." It's really not helping anything.

Precisely.

And it never did.

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I'd have to agree that CAFE doesn't really help matters much. We as the automotive community, and enthusiasts especially need to demand from the manfacturers what we want, now with that being said, we don't need to lobby our government to force things down the auto industry's throat.

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No, we need to lobby our government to back off of the manufacturers and get off of their lazy asses to get something done on alternative fuels.

Forget the economic reasons.

Forget the environmental benefits

This is a national security issue and should be treated as such.

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Precisely.

And it never did.

At first I thought CAFE was BS. Now I realize that it's not just BS, but absolutely uncalled for. How sad is it that I, a kid of only 19, can realize this when the people 2-4 times older can't grasp it? C'mon people.

No, we need to lobby our government to back off of the manufacturers and get off of their lazy asses to get something done on alternative fuels.

Forget the economic reasons.

Forget the environmental benefits

This is a national security issue and should be treated as such.

It really is. I completely agree.

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Instead of harping on the automakers, how about the hugely inefficient and far more pollutive coal factories and other facilities that dump millions of tons of toxins into the atmosphere, and account for far more pollution than cars do. Why not get on their asses to make them clean up their act and be more eco friendly? Oh right, as I recall several years back the current administration cut back on environmental regulations that would require them to clean up their act.

Edited by Dodgefan
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Instead of harping on the automakers, how about the hugely inefficient and far more pollutive coal factories and other facilities that dump millions of tons of toxins into the atmosphere, and account for far more pollution than cars do. Why not get on their asses to make them clean up their act and be more eco friendly? Oh right, as I recall several years back the current administration to cut back on environmental regulations that would require them to clean up their act.

YES! :yes:

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For those wondering about CAFE.

Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) is the sales weighted average fuel economy, expressed in miles per gallon (mpg), of a manufacturer’s fleet of passenger cars or light trucks with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 8,500 lbs. or less

The CAFE law provides for special treatment of vehicle fuel economy calculations for dedicated alternative fuel vehicles and dual-fuel vehicles. The fuel economy of a dedicated alternative fuel vehicle is determined by dividing its fuel economy in equivalent miles per gallon of gasoline or diesel fuel by 0.15. Thus a 15 mpg dedicated alternative fuel vehicle would be rated as 100 mpg. For dual-fuel vehicles (vehicles that can use the alternative fuel and gasoline or diesel interchangeably), the rating is the average of the fuel economy on gasoline or diesel and the fuel economy on the alternative fuel vehicle divided by .15. For example, this calculation procedure turns a dual fuel vehicle that averages 25 mpg on gasoline or diesel with the above 100 mpg alternative fuel to attain the 40 mpg value for CAFE purposes. Several limitations are established for CAFE credits for dual fuel vehicles. For MYs 1993-2004, the maximum CAFE increase attributable to dual fueled vehicles in a manufacturer’s passenger car or light truck fleet is 1.2 mpg.

Three different sets of fuel economy values- NHTSA’s CAFE values, EPA’s unadjusted dynamometer values, and EPA’s adjusted on-road values exist. NHTSA’s CAFE values are used to determine manufacturers’ compliance with the applicable average fuel economy standards and to develop its annual report

From what I gathered, the NHTSA uses EPA values for average fuel economy, however they use the older ratings and not the '08 ratings.

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