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Drew Dowdell

Just so we're clear on that whole Domestic Drilling thing

38 posts in this topic

Favoring domestic drilling over alternative energy won't work because even if every last inch of public territory were open to drilling, it would add only .16 million barrels per day to the global oil supply and it wouldn't even come online till 2017 The world consumed 86 million barrels per day in 2007. In highly technical terms "drop in bucket".

Money Quote:

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy used the MMS data to assess what impact a lifting of the ban in 2012 for the Lower 48 OCS would have on U.S. oil production. Basically, the EIA estimated what fraction of the technically recoverable oil would be economical to recover, and how fast it could be produced after 2012. Leasing would begin no sooner than 2012, and production would not be expected to start before 2017. The EIA found that access to the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf of Mexico regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil production or prices before 2030. Total domestic production of crude oil from 2012 through 2030 is projected to be 1.6 percent higher than in EIA's "no access" reference case.

The effect of that quantity of oil on the price of oil would be indiscernible. Oil prices are determined on the international market, and the addition of about 0.16 million barrels per day from the OCS in 2030 to total world oil production would have no significant impact on oil market fundamentals. The world consumed about 86 million barrels per day in 2007, and will consume about 112 million barrels per day in 2030, according to EIA forecasts.

Thus, lifting the ban on offshore drilling will not significantly increase domestic production, nor will it put downward pressure on oil prices.

There may be other arguments for offshore drilling, such as domestic job creation and tax revenue, improved balance of payments, among others. But those are subjects for another analysis….

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I'm personally of the opinion that we shouldn't be drilling everywhere, but keeping those reserves until oil is more like 4x more expensive than it is now (after adjusting for inflation). The focus needs to be on alternatives.

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Oil just hit a 13 month low today.

I can't believe so many people are looking to give the oil companies another hand-out! People would jump off the Brooklyn Bridge if Fox News said that it was good for America.

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Depending on who you ask America either has enough reserves to FUEL OURSELVES @ current consumption levels from 5 to 50 years.

Alternative energy is a better long term investment, but i see no reason why our own oil companies shouldn't be able to drill around here. Additionally oil companies are VERY GOOD at developing technology to economically get very hard to get oil out of places when push comes to shove, so don't underestimate their ingenuity.

Additionally a few of the oil companies, shell in particular, are already researching various alternative energies because Shell wants to be a dominate player in the global energy game.

as it stands, solar power looks promising, but unfortunately aside from really big ass batteries i have no clue how we would store the energy for the night.

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I'm personally of the opinion that we shouldn't be drilling everywhere, but keeping those reserves until oil is more like 4x more expensive than it is now (after adjusting for inflation). The focus needs to be on alternatives.

I feel the same way. Leave it for a true crisis (as in world war, diplomacy destabilization, drastically declining reserves, etc). McCain and Palin are totally shortsighted on this issue; drilling in Alaska will do nothing for prices or demand.

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I'm not opposed to domestic drilling, but I question it's efficacy in the near term. I can see reducing imported oil as a worthwhile goal, but it needs to part of an overall energy plan...that includes alternative energy sources and moving away from fossil fuel.

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I feel the same way. Leave it for a true crisis (as in world war, diplomacy destabilization, drastically declining reserves, etc). McCain and Palin are totally shortsighted on this issue; drilling in Alaska will do nothing for prices or demand.

+1

Chris

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Depending on who you ask America either has enough reserves to FUEL OURSELVES @ current consumption levels from 5 to 50 years.

Alternative energy is a better long term investment, but i see no reason why our own oil companies shouldn't be able to drill around here. Additionally oil companies are VERY GOOD at developing technology to economically get very hard to get oil out of places when push comes to shove, so don't underestimate their ingenuity.

Additionally a few of the oil companies, shell in particular, are already researching various alternative energies because Shell wants to be a dominate player in the global energy game.

as it stands, solar power looks promising, but unfortunately aside from really big ass batteries i have no clue how we would store the energy for the night.

I'm not saying we shouldn't drill... we should. However, the point of this post is that a campaign platform that is based on the phrase of "Drill baby drill!" is completely foolish.

We should be focusing on getting away from oil and drilling only being something to get us by in the meantime.

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I'm not opposed to domestic drilling, but I question it's efficacy in the near term. I can see reducing imported oil as a worthwhile goal, but it needs to part of an overall energy plan...that includes alternative energy sources and moving away from fossil fuel.

The whole point is that we need to start somewhere, sometime......

IF we had begun drilling, oh, say 10 or 20 years ago......

:scratchchin:

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I agree with OC. DRILL BABY DRILL. And also develope alternative I am in the all above catergory.

<....Chris wipes his forehead....thank goodness for a fellow McCain/Palin supporter!....>

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The whole point is that we need to start somewhere, sometime......

IF we had begun drilling, oh, say 10 or 20 years ago......

:scratchchin:

Damnit! If only I hadn't left my time machine out in the rain!

DRILLING NOW WILL NOT HELP!

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I agree with OC. DRILL BABY DRILL. And also develope alternative I am in the all above catergory.

Alternative Energy should be the main thrust.....

Allowing drilling is fine, but shouldn't be a priority.

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Damnit! If only I hadn't left my time machine out in the rain!

DRILLING NOW WILL NOT HELP!

Your essentially right, but for the wrong reasons. Drilling now will not help because oil has become cheap enough where American production of it (Light sweet crude) would be more expensive than market rates. However, for heavier oils, which middle east oil is no good for, we still got an advantage.

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on another note i think we may need to start that whole natural gas drilling too before some other countries start calling dibs on offshore deposits of the stuff. its retarded how much of that has been getting imported as well.

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You guys are misfocusing. No one is advocating drilling INSTEAD of alternative energy- there is support for alternatives but legislative opposition (primarily from the Dems) against drilling. The claim that new drilling won't get into the system until 2012 according to the oil companies (why the hell should it take 5 years draw up paperwork, more typical Dem work ethics at play...) ignores the fact that a 'replacement' alternative energy source will take much longer- there's almost zero infrastructure in place for any of them. Waiting for a world war to hit to start drilling is madness- the same sources still point to years before it's in the barrel.

Drilling now WOULD help- that's exactly the sort of intangible the commodity markets roll on, regardless of the actual amount we're talking about (BTW, more than 1 organization has agreed it's a considerable quantity. I note that the article reduced the oil amount to a per day figure :rolleyes: in a crystal clear attempt to minimize the quantity. May have fooled some people reading it, I suppose...).

Why anyone in their right mind would OPPOSE any additional source of energy & energy independence in these times is beyond comprehension. Oh wait- is it because the Big Bad EEEVVVIILLL Oil Cos would have more oil to sell?? Want to 'make a difference' on a personal level here? Sell your damn car & bike for your groceries- that'll show XOM.

Edited by balthazar
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can you guess what i could say?

end all subsidies (for all types of fuels) over the next five - 10 years and open up everything with a tad (reasonable, but when is the gov reasonable?) of oversight for environment reasons, ...they prolly have that oversight already.

that should slowly creep the price higher, but also as more oil becomes available after the typical 5 - 10 years getting things online, keeping the market a tad more stable (not counting natural disasters) and allowing for truly economic alt fuels to come into their own and expand.

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Economist Greg Mankiw at Harvard has been proposing this system for a few years now: hike up the tax on fuel, and then mail out a refund of the average amount of damage done by the tax hike to every American. People will not become any poorer, and they will use less fuel.

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Economist Greg Mankiw at Harvard has been proposing this system for a few years now: hike up the tax on fuel, and then mail out a refund of the average amount of damage done by the tax hike to every American. People will not become any poorer, and they will use less fuel.

That makes perfect sense. Oh wait, how much money is lost in all the wasted tax expenses and government inefficiency?

That is a regressive tax if i have ever heard one... even if it is refunded later on!

Plus... lets see... semi trucks use fuel... tax on fuel... higher transportation costs... higher end product prices... hmm no tax refund there.

Yep, that's a regressive tax all around.

Edited by Teh Ricer Civic!
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as it stands, solar power looks promising, but unfortunately aside from really big ass batteries i have no clue how we would store the energy for the night.

One option is a combination of solar (or wind, or whatever) and hydro. Use excess electricity to pump water back upstream into a reservoir, release it as needed to regain electricity. It's scalable and low-tech (reliable and relatively cheap to build). What I don't know is how efficient it is overall. If you're only getting 10% of the electricity back, then it's probably a lousy plan. If it's 50 or above, it might be reasonable. Overall, though, fluctuating power generation sources like wind & solar are better used as supplemental energy sources, with something with a directly controllable energy output like nuclear filling the difference in demand.

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Agreed, Balthazar. WTFFFF!? is it that the standard knee-jerk

reaction of anyone who is opposed to drilling is:

Frogit the drillin' what we need is to fix us up some ALL-tern-Ah-tiv' enirgee.

Who in their right mind would ever oppose alternative energy?

The only case of some dope saying something against

alternative energy was some member having a blond

moment and saying wind power is not a sustainable

energy source, which is quite laughable.

Reasonable & logical.

Not when it come to gasoline or most politicians.

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Who in their right mind would ever oppose alternative energy?

The oil companies and the politicians they finance?

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I thought the Oil Cos were all behind their "buddy" Bush, yet it's the Dems who oppose drilling.

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