Alternative Fuels & Propulsion RANDOM

[surreal1272]

25 minutes ago, ykX said:

You kidding, right?  The majority of vehicles sold is around $2k-4k.  It is nowhere close to over 10k.

Hmmm,

$31k vs $37k

$2k vs $19k cheapest EV

What is my point ?....

 

 

 

 

Except, aside from one being ICE and the other being EV, you are not comparing apples to oranges. The Tata EV has far more features, options, AND power than the cheapo models from them. On a side note, The Kai Seltos is a hot seller in India and it is FAR north of $10K, as are a host of others. Models above this price have been trending up in sales with every passing year, so it reasonable to assume that there more folks that can swing that money than you and I realize. 

 

https://www.indiatoday.in/auto/cars/story/kia-seltos-sonet-total-sales-at-1-35-295-units-in-2020-1758793-2021-01-13

 

And while you laugh at my post, you need to remember that in a country where median income is $31K, we have plenty of folks that swing dough out for $100K corvettes and $80K Pick ups. The same logic that applies here also applies in India.

 

42 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

That's like showing a picture of Times Square and saying it's easier to get around on bikes in the USA. Not all of india is that packed. 

Every major city in India is like that (and more than a third of their population in a country of 1.3 billion people). From Bangalore, to Mumbai, to Delhi, they are all packed like this with congested traffic and those three cities alone have almost 30 million people between them

 

 

Edited March 24, 2021 by surreal1272

[ykX]

8 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

Except, aside from one being ICE and the other being EV, you are not comparing apples to oranges

Of course I am comparing apples to apples.  EVERY EV vehicle in US is at least $12k-15k more expensive than comparable ICE vehicle.  Considering that majority of cars in India are bare bones because most people can't afford fancy features, the EV price disparity becomes even bigger.

In any case this argument leads nowhere. 

Meanwhile, I am really looking forward to yours and David's reviews of EV vehicles you are going to buy soon.

[ccap41]

29 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

Except, aside from one being ICE and the other being EV, you are not comparing apples to oranges. The Tata EV has far more features, options, AND power than the cheapo models from them. On a side note, The Kai Seltos is a hot seller in India and it is FAR north of $10K, as are a host of others. Models above this price have been trending up in sales with every passing year, so it reasonable to assume that there more folks that can swing that money than you and I realize. 

 

https://www.indiatoday.in/auto/cars/story/kia-seltos-sonet-total-sales-at-1-35-295-units-in-2020-1758793-2021-01-13

 

And while you laugh at my post, you need to remember that in a country where median income is $31K, we have plenty of folks that swing dough out for $100K corvettes and $80K Pick ups. The same logic that applies here also applies in India.

 

Every major city in India is like that (and more than a third of their population in a country of 1.3 billion people). From Bangalore, to Mumbai, to Delhi, they are all packed like this with congested traffic and those three cities alone have almost 30 million people between them

 

 

And every MAJOR city in the US is a shtstorm during rush hour as well, what's your point? I posted a population density map.

18 minutes ago, ykX said:

Meanwhile, I am really looking forward to yours and David's reviews of EV vehicles you are going to buy soon.

Smoke and mirrors. Neither will own one anytime soon. It'll be some excuse after the next. 

[surreal1272]

2 hours ago, ykX said:

Of course I am comparing apples to apples.  EVERY EV vehicle in US is at least $12k-15k more expensive than comparable ICE vehicle.  Considering that majority of cars in India are bare bones because most people can't afford fancy features, the EV price disparity becomes even bigger.

In any case this argument leads nowhere. 

Meanwhile, I am really looking forward to yours and David's reviews of EV vehicles you are going to buy soon.

We were also talking about cars in India, not the US but please, keep up the SMK bar moving tactics LOL. 
 

Oh and regarding your last sentence, just stop. That argument is absolutely dumb on an epic scale. I like the Corvette too so, by your logic, should I catch hell for not buying one of those as well? 

[balthazar]

8 hours ago, David said:

Here is a company I see all the time around here fueling up work sites.

Site Fuel | National Fuel Delivery | Onsite Refueling

More of the same, shadily-calculated / over-estimated numbers, conjured up out of thin air, that the BEV OEMs too frequently use:

>>"Your trucks and equipment are costing your money when they are waiting to be fueled. If you assume getting fuel averages 30 minutes per day, per vehicle, for every time fuel is needed (it's often more) then the waisted time can add up to days or even weeks of lost productivity."<< 

30 minutes to pump fuel into a machine - is it a 1000 gal tank?? Nonsense. Then they state that fueling 1 vehicle once per week will "save" you $555 in "annual labor costs"... but of course their site has zero mention of their formula for calculating this or the COST OF THEIR SERVICE.

Garbage propaganda. And proofread your website copy; you're trying to get customers here.

[David]

4 minutes ago, balthazar said:

More of the same, shadily-calculated / over-estimated numbers, conjured up out of thin air, that the BEV OEMs too frequently use:

>>"Your trucks and equipment are costing your money when they are waiting to be fueled. If you assume getting fuel averages 30 minutes per day, per vehicle, for every time fuel is needed (it's often more) then the waisted time can add up to days or even weeks of lost productivity."<< 

30 minutes to pump fuel into a machine - is it a 1000 gal tank?? Nonsense. Then they state that fueling 1 vehicle once per week will "save" you $555 in "annual labor costs"... but of course their site has zero mention of their formula for calculating this or the COST OF THEIR SERVICE.

Garbage propaganda. And proofread your website copy; you're trying to get customers here.

Common sense not so common me think!  

[Robert Hall]

30 minutes a day refueling each vehicle.  Maybe driving hundreds (thousands?) of miles a day w/ a large tank and very slow pumps... 😄

Edited March 24, 2021 by Robert Hall

[balthazar]

1 minute ago, Robert Hall said:

30 minutes a day refueling each vehicle.  Maybe driving hundreds (thousands?) of miles a day w/ a large tank and very slow pumps...

It's a job site heavy equipment refueling service. Heavy equipment (and commercial grade diesel trucks like my 2500HD) have larger filler pipes; they take larger diameter fill nozzles; the fuel flies out.

[Robert Hall]

2 minutes ago, balthazar said:

It's a job site heavy equipment refueling service. Heavy equipment (and commercial grade diesel trucks like my 2500HD) have larger filler pipes; they take larger diameter fill nozzles; the fuel flies out.

So 30 minutes a day is unrealistic for most heavy equipment probably, except maybe something like those giant earth movers or huge off-road dump trucks.

[David]

3 hours ago, ccap41 said:

Population density (number of persons per square kilometre area) in States/ Union territories in India

Sighhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Where does one begin when one has (ASSUMPTION) not ever been to India. I work with plenty of Indian Engineers who will back me up on this having grown up in India. 

First off the lite population areas are pretty much farming areas and for a population of 1.3 Billion the cities are packed, traffic is packed all the time.

Lets also go with a modern map not one from 2001. Plus some web sites so you can check the facts yourselve.

India Population 1950-2021 | MacroTrends

Here is just the population change from 2000 to 2020, They had 1,056,575,549 people and in 2020 they had 1,380,004,385 people for a gain of 323,428,836 more people.

If your up to it, you can review the actual India census info. They last did it in 2011, 2021 is the year for updating detailed census data.

Census of India Website : Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India (censusindia.gov.in)

Here is the statistical data for the country showing just how populated the country of India is at almost 1.4 Billion people with a land mass of 3,287,263 sq km compared to the US at 9,833,517 sq km or 3 times bigger and yet we only have about 400 million people. So yes the place is very crowded. 

India population 2020 - StatisticsTimes.com

India is a cast system country that has been working very hard to build a middle income class. Usually families will pool together money to send one child to college to get into tech and then expect him to help out the rest of the family to get more members to college. Bikes are common to India, auto's are for the rich. Fact in comparison to the US which is the opposite.

Current map from the sites listed of current population by region.

[surreal1272]

3 hours ago, ccap41 said:

And every MAJOR city in the US is a shtstorm during rush hour as well, what's your point? I posted a population density map.

Then you should also read about the 12 largest cities in India and then Google image search the city name with "traffic" and educate yourself. Oh and...

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/bengaluru-four-other-indian-cities-in-world-s-worst-traffic-list-11580365873632.html

 

In addition, yes cities here have congestion during the rush hours. The difference there is that the traffic flowing through the cities of India are almost always clogged.

Edited March 24, 2021 by surreal1272

[surreal1272]

3 hours ago, ccap41 said:

Smoke and mirrors. Neither will own one anytime soon. It'll be some excuse after the next.

See my above post to ykx about cars we like and how it has jack &#036;h&#33; do with owning one. You love a lot of Mercedes vehicles but yet you, yourself, have never owned any of them (at least not that you've mentioned here). What are your excuses? (that last part is rhetorical btw)

[balthazar]

^ Maybe it's simply that they're too expensive. 🤫

[oldshurst442]

Time stamped to where I wanna it to be

 

And if you listen to that...

you will realize that its NOT just EV vehicles that are expensive for the everyday American, but ICE powered cars too.

And THE solution that YOU folk want, well, it might NOT be from GM, Toyota or VW, like I say as well, that an affordable EV will come from traditional big ICE players, but from some start-up that will find and break the code as he says...

And it WILL be EV...

and THAT is how India WILL be 100% EV by 2030.

Here in North America...well

We too, might go the way of owning CRUDE cars like the Model T once was...

Prices of ICE cars are shooting waaaay up, yet all I hear about in this thread at least, is the cost of BEVs being out of reach and out of touch...

We all need a reality check...on all sides from all sides concerning all sides. 

 

 

Edited March 25, 2021 by oldshurst442

[ykX]

1 hour ago, surreal1272 said:

Oh and regarding your last sentence, just stop. That argument is absolutely dumb on an epic scale. I like the Corvette too so, by your logic, should I catch hell for not buying one of those as well? 

The difference is you and David are calling people last century people, stuck in the past, backward people etc for criticizing anything said against EVs.  Even though I think majority of people here raise very reasonable issues  and questions with EVs (except maybe ocnblu).  You guys are such great proponents of EVs that I think it is only appropriate to expect for you to put actions behind your words.  I think it is very different from loving a Corvette and not buying it.  Even in that case I would say if someone is a great proponent of lets say sports cars and never had one, I would call that person out.  Because you can find a sports car for any budget.

[surreal1272]

41 minutes ago, ykX said:

The difference is you and David are calling people last century people, stuck in the past, backward people etc for criticizing anything said against EVs.  Even though I think majority of people here raise very reasonable issues  and questions with EVs (except maybe ocnblu).  You guys are such great proponents of EVs that I think it is only appropriate to expect for you to put actions behind your words.  I think it is very different from loving a Corvette and not buying it.  Even in that case I would say if someone is a great proponent of lets say sports cars and never had one, I would call that person out.  Because you can find a sports car for any budget.

You are so ill informed here. I have only ever said anything remotely close to that to one person here so save the exaggeration. And my Corvette example was just that, an example but it does not change my point at all. You have tons of car loving folks all over that love everything Porsche yet 99.99% don’t own one nor have they ever. It’s called being a car fan. Should they face the same scrutiny? No they shouldn’t because that kind of thinking is just asinine and just a childish retort when you have no better argument. Oh, for the record, I have driven a Bolt (during my time at a Chevy dealership). Peppy car with decent interior room for its size but the white trim has to go and it was $41K new which is too high, which I have said before (while focus on things you think I’ve said). Is that enough of a review for you or does that not meet your “lofty” standards of what’s acceptable to like around here?

1 hour ago, balthazar said:

^ Maybe it's simply that they're too expensive. 🤫

Not

The

Point

 

and you know it. I like and talk about a lot of cars that I can technically afford yet I have never owned most of them. By ykx’s standard, I should face scrutiny for that. It’s utter horse&#036;h&#33;, is what it is. 

[balthazar]

^ I was actually addressing your commentary toward ccap41 not owning a MB. And I said 'maybe'. 😉

And I'm the same way, BTW; what I buy and what I can afford to buy are not really in the same circus tent. But for the MAJORITY of vehicle consumers, I would hazard that's not the case... otherwise I doubt there would be 84- & 96-month payment schedules.
 

1 hour ago, oldshurst442 said:

you will realize that its NOT just EV vehicles that are expensive for the everyday American, but ICE powered cars too.

While Autoline Daily reports the average new car price in 2020 is "$40K", note that is transaction price, not MSRP price.

InsideEVs listed 46 BE and PHEV vehicles on sale in the U.S. in 2019. So I sat and did the math; looked up each models original MSRP (NOT transaction price), and the average 2019 new EV car price was $52K.

So yeah; IC cars are expensive at an average transaction price of $40K.

And stripped, option-less EVs are even MORE expensive at an average base price of $52K ($60K @ transaction price??)

[oldshurst442]

3 minutes ago, balthazar said:

^ I was actually addressing your commentary toward ccap41 not owning a MB. And I said 'maybe'. 😉

And I'm the same way, BTW; what I buy and what I can afford to buy are not really in the same circus tent. But for the MAJORITY of vehicle consumers, I would hazard that's not the case... otherwise I doubt there would be 84- & 96-month payment schedules.
 

While Autoline Daily reports the average new car price in 2020 is "$40K", note that is transaction price, not MSRP price.

InsideEVs listed 46 BE and PHEV vehicles on sale in the U.S. in 2019. So I sat and did the math; looked up each models original MSRP (NOT transaction price), and the average 2019 new EV car price was $52K.

So yeah; IC cars are expensive at an average transaction price of $40K.

And stripped, option-less EVs are even MORE expensive at an average base price of $52K ($60K @ transaction price??)

 

Still doesnt change the fact that:

1. American market car sellers are pushing higher priced cars on us

2. We...are continuing to buy higher priced cars and we buy into the useless tech they push on us that inflate the prices. In fact, they dont need to push that shyte down our throats because we are the ones DEMANDING that shyte be sold to us. 

3. Cars that we cant afford hence the 84-96 month payment plans and leases we like to do

4. there will come a time when we wont be able to afford none of all that

5. there WILL be SOMEONE to offer lower priced cars eventually, even though NOW we, as American and Canadian consumers, are scoffing at that idea

6. And it WILL be cars that are rudimentary despite the fact the we are currently snubbing that trend and we want uselss shyte in our cars that cost a fortune but the car makers also make money off of our stupidity. 

7. Because as a North American society going forward, we are living more and more on debt...and something will give, sometime in the near future.  

8. couple that with the banning of ICE...because THAT is our destiny

9. so...there WILL be a BEV that WILL be downgraded in features for our boring daily routine drives. Be it a BEV from China or some other start-up because by the way it looks, GM, FoMoCo, Toyota, VW are only interested in making big bucks off of shyte we really dont need in our cars inflating the price tags...like I mentioned

Or...GM, FoMoCo, VW, Toyota will reverse that trend.  Maybe we as a society will come to our senses.

Or...by having one manufacturer producing one platform and selling it to the many OEMs that want to sell an EV to the masses...   (yeah...this argument again)

But there WILL be a solution...

 

 

 

[balthazar]

17 minutes ago, oldshurst442 said:

5. there WILL be SOMEONE to offer lower priced cars eventually, even though NOW we, as American and Canadian consumers, are scoffing at that idea

Maybe... but like the tiny house 'revolution' and BE vehicles in 2020... the vast majority of consumers won't be interested.

What did I use to call it here......... AH-HA!!!  [note the date!]
 

On 1/22/2007 at 6:34 PM, balthazar said:

Have you priced plywood lately?

This is nearly exactly what I proposed here last summer; the Minimalist Kar. Something without power tire valve caps & 58 airbags, a back-to-basics commuter small car that's economical and affordable- and sorry folks! without NNNAAVV.

Still ain't happenin'. 

[oldshurst442]

11 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Maybe... but like the tiny house 'revolution' and BE vehicles in 2020... the vast majority of consumers won't be interested.

What did I use to call it here......... AH-HA!!!  [note the date!]
 

Still ain't happenin'. 

Well..

Consumers wont have a choice...  ICE will be banned past 2035... 

Cry, yell, moan, bitch. Or laugh.  

ICE is no longer going to be sold past 2035.  

Oh...your classic V8 car. Yeah...you will be able to own that. Wont be able to daily drive. Probably only on a track or on a "special" 'remember the good 'ole days' day 2 times a year or something... 

 

Edited March 25, 2021 by oldshurst442

[oldshurst442]

23 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Maybe... but like the tiny house 'revolution'

Oh...THAT is actually a thing.  

Its actually a way of life in MANY places on this planet. JUST because in America we like to live large does NOT mean the rest of the world lives large like we do.  But dont kid yourself, even in North America, there is a big enough movement to where our very own society is ceasing to consume voraciously and couple that to where the ones that DO consume voraciously wont be able to because our personal debt load cant sustain that shyte any longer and before you know it, we in North America WILL start living like my mom did in Greece...

Forget EVs, Balthy...we might be buying donkeys...

1. to farm our own lands again and to use as personal transport. 

2. probably cheaper to buy, own and maintian a donkey than it is a car. Any car.  

And yes, Im being sarcastic. But not really. 

We do have a huge poverty problem in North America and it aint getting smaller or resolved. 

So by you mentioning the tiny house revolution as a way to mock this, Ill turn it up and make sure that we are aware that North America's poverty problems and personal debt load is severe...

A tiny house in 2035 might just BE the norm in North America  to go along with that crude 4 000 dollar Chinese EV...

 

Edited March 25, 2021 by oldshurst442

[oldshurst442]

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-biggest-car-brand-launches-031639709.html

Quote

China's biggest carmaker Geely is launching a premium electric car brand it hopes will take on Tesla.  The Chinese company, which owns Volvo and Lotus, announced its Zeekr brand on Tuesday to tap into China's demand for electric vehicles (EVs).  It comes as Elon Musk goes on the charm offensive in China praising its plans to tackle carbon emissions.  The Tesla founder has seeking to allay Chinese concerns about his cars' onboard cameras.  Geely said it would develop and manufacture high-end EVs under the Zeekr brand and expected to begin deliveries in the third quarter of 2021.  It already has exposure to premium electric cars through the brands it owns. Polestar, owned by Volvo Cars, develops electric performance cars. It is headquartered in Sweden with vehicle production taking place in China.  Lotus, which is majority-owned by Geely, is working on an electric-powered supercar called Evija.  Geely also owns London black cab maker, the London EV Company, and has focused on building plug-in hybrid taxis, which have both a petrol engine and electric battery.  Zeekr, its own home-grown EV brand, will face fierce competition from Tesla whose Model 3 was the top-selling electric vehicle model in China last year. It will also compete with Chinese groups Nio, Xpeng and Li Auto which are seeing healthy sales.  Last week, Dongfeng Motor, the Chinese partner of Japan's Nissan and PSA Peugeot Citroen of France, said its new EV brand Voyah could start delivering cars to Chinese customers in July.  Beijing wants more than a fifth of vehicles sold in China to be electric by 2025.  Geely has ambitions to become China's first global automaker with a reach similar to Volkswagen. Along with its Volvo and Lotus brands, it owns a minority stake in Mercedes-Benz owner Daimler.

 

The bolded parts have all kinds of implications. Especially if those goals are met...

We could dismiss all of that, but I find it intriguing to where Geely wants to go in the global market place.  Especially with what they own or co-own and/or are partnered with...

Couple that with the many other Chinese cheaply priced EVs and things get real very quick to what kind of future awaits us in 2035...

 

[balthazar]

1 hour ago, oldshurst442 said:

ICE is no longer going to be sold past 2035. 

Uh-huh, OK.

[oldshurst442]

Just now, balthazar said:

Uh-huh, OK.

Yeah...I know.   You disbelieve.  

 

 

 

[balthazar]

Logic, the data set / trajectories and human nature do not support that completely random end date.

Plus, I'm not religious.

[balthazar]

Goldman Sachs (via CNBC) reported yesterday that increased production of battery electrics will see a rise in core materials due to demand.  Electric vehicle makers should brace for about an 18% increase in the cost of the battery packs.  GS analysts stated that a return to historical peak prices would more than double the cost of lithium, double the cost of cobalt, and raise the cost of nickel by 60%.  In a BE vehicle where 30% of the cost of the car is the batteries, a -for example- $50,000 Tesla Model 3's sticker would rise to about $52,700.

Edited March 25, 2021 by balthazar

[daves87rs]

1 hour ago, balthazar said:

Goldman Sachs (via CNBC) reported yesterday that increased production of battery electrics will see a rise in core materials due to demand.  Electric vehicle makers should brace for about an 18% increase in the cost of the battery packs.  GS analysts stated that a return to historical peak prices would more than double the cost of lithium, double the cost of cobalt, and raise the cost of nickel by 60%.  In a BE vehicle where 30% of the cost of the car is the batteries, a -for example- $50,000 Tesla Model 3's sticker would rise to about $52,700.

No cost savings.....

[ykX]

10 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

and it was $41K new which is too high, which I have said before

Isn't it exactly what we are trying to say here?  And you and David are trying to prove us wrong? I think that statement is pretty much summarize the discussion of the last 100 pages.

Personally, and I said that before, I think EVs are the future.  It is just there are still significant amount of issues to be resolved before EVs will be able to really replace ICE and go mainstream.  I am just trying to look at things realistically, instead through rose colored glasses like some people here.

And also on personal note, if I am not mistaken I am the only one on this forum who at least owns a hybrid vehicle.  

Edited March 25, 2021 by ykX

[surreal1272]

1 hour ago, ykX said:

Isn't it exactly what we are trying to say here?  And you and David are trying to prove us wrong? I think that statement is pretty much summarize the discussion of the last 100 pages.

Personally, and I said that before, I think EVs are the future.  It is just there are still significant amount of issues to be resolved before EVs will be able to really replace ICE and go mainstream.  I am just trying to look at things realistically, instead through rose colored glasses like some people here.

And also on personal note, if I am not mistaken I am the only one on this forum who at least owns a hybrid vehicle.  

Which does not change the fact that you made an assumption about me that was wrong, like the fact that I’m trying to “prove” you wrong regarding price. I’ve never said anything of the sort except to put price into perspective. I’ve gone on record here, many times, saying that car prices are way too high (again, $37K average in this country). You can think whatever you want here but keep your facts straight and save the “I look forward to your EV review” remarks because that remark itself was just pure BS and deflection on your part. 

8 hours ago, balthazar said:

Goldman Sachs (via CNBC) reported yesterday that increased production of battery electrics will see a rise in core materials due to demand.  Electric vehicle makers should brace for about an 18% increase in the cost of the battery packs.  GS analysts stated that a return to historical peak prices would more than double the cost of lithium, double the cost of cobalt, and raise the cost of nickel by 60%.  In a BE vehicle where 30% of the cost of the car is the batteries, a -for example- $50,000 Tesla Model 3's sticker would rise to about $52,700.

So we are now listening to the kings of miscalculations and speculations known as Goldman Sachs? LMAO! Newsflash, about every ICE vehicle out there will go up that much in price as well, like they’ve done for the last hundred years. 

Edited March 25, 2021 by surreal1272

[ykX]

20 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

I’ve never said anything of the sort except to put price into perspective. I’ve gone on record here, many times, saying that car prices are way too high (again, $37K average in this country). You can think whatever you want here but keep your facts straight and save the “I look forward to your EV review” remarks because that remark itself was just pure BS and deflection on your part. 

No assumptions, you said that average income in US is $31k and average car price is $37k.  It is not even close to comparison of average income in India and average car price there, especially compared to EV price.  Seems pretty straight to me.

Also, regarding ICE vehicle price, people forget that pricing in the last few years jumped significantly because active safety became standard, which added a big chunk to the price of the vehicles.

And honestly I could care less about what you think is BS or not.  I don't think it is deflection because I expect people to put action behind their words, period.

Edited March 25, 2021 by ykX

[balthazar]

^ Yeah; I can’t help but sneer when I type the word ‘analyst’, but some folk place a lot of stock in them. Just relaying the info.

But no one is saying new vehicles generally aren’t expensive; it’s the cost disparity being highlighted here.

[surreal1272]

19 minutes ago, ykX said:

No assumptions, you said that average income in US is $31k and average car price is $37k.  It is not even close to comparison of average income in India and average car price there, especially compared to EV price.  Seems pretty straight to me.

Also, regarding ICE vehicle price, people forget that pricing in the last few years jumped significantly because active safety became standard, which added a big chunk to the price of the vehicles.

And honestly I could care less about what you think is BS or not.  I don't think it is deflection because I expect people to put action behind their words, period.

Whatever you have to tell yourself because you have gone out of your way to move the bar whenever you see fit.

20 minutes ago, ykX said:

And honestly I could care less about what you think is BS or not.  I don't think it is deflection because I expect people to put action behind their words, period

And what is that even supposed to mean? Because I don’t own an EV, I cant talk about them? I can’t tout the benefits without getting scorned by the one hybrid owner here? Maybe you didn’t realize this but this is a car enthusiast site so folks here tend to talk about of all sorts of things car related and discuss cars and trucks they may not own. That doesn’t mean their opinions are somehow invalid (by your “lofty” standards anyway) or that we shouldn’t listen to them. If that is going to be the case, then maybe you should find a place where everyone thinks like you and outs “action behind their words” (like that means a damn thing here).

[surreal1272]

23 minutes ago, balthazar said:

^ Yeah; I can’t help but sneer when I type the word ‘analyst’, but some folk place a lot of stock in them. Just relaying the info.

But no one is saying new vehicles generally aren’t expensive; it’s the cost disparity being highlighted here.

And not one person here, myself included, has ignored the price disparity but I also think that some folks here tend to focus on that ONE thing way too much while ignoring literally everything else that is a positive. Quite frankly, I’m over it and certain folks lofty BS standards. Have at it because I’m out on this one.

[balthazar]

^ I disagree; when someone says the price of X BEV is ‘too high’ and the response is that a $15K cheaper IC “equivalent” sedan is also expensive, that IMO absolutely dismisses the initial statement. If money were no object, most big sedans could just be cancelled and let the S-class pick every buyer up.

Obviously there are buyers for BE’s, and that market share is slowly creeping up, but also obviously; going to a 100% BE industry is going to push many buyers out of the market.

Waitin on my new GMC to be built, and it’s stupid expensive, but a Rivian is 50% more with NO OPTIONS. I would not be willing to pay that tag. Now picture folks struggling to swing a $30K mid-sizer and staring (potentially) at a $40K+ EV variant. 

Price disparity is everything.

[David]

17 hours ago, ykX said:

The difference is you and David are calling people last century people, stuck in the past, backward people etc for criticizing anything said against EVs.  Even though I think majority of people here raise very reasonable issues  and questions with EVs (except maybe ocnblu).  You guys are such great proponents of EVs that I think it is only appropriate to expect for you to put actions behind your words.  I think it is very different from loving a Corvette and not buying it.  Even in that case I would say if someone is a great proponent of lets say sports cars and never had one, I would call that person out.  Because you can find a sports car for any budget.

Yes, I say living in the past not last century people. There are those here that look at life of ICE as a point in time and are not believing that it will change, living in the past. I also pointed out how everything has continued to change and I also have posted that I accept that some want to live in the past with old tech. We each have our choice, but technology and change of auto's is the reality and it is happening and will happen and ICE will go away.

So you have a choice of living in the past or moving forward with the bulk of humanity into the future. Simple.

 

13 hours ago, balthazar said:

Goldman Sachs (via CNBC) reported yesterday that increased production of battery electrics will see a rise in core materials due to demand.  Electric vehicle makers should brace for about an 18% increase in the cost of the battery packs.  GS analysts stated that a return to historical peak prices would more than double the cost of lithium, double the cost of cobalt, and raise the cost of nickel by 60%.  In a BE vehicle where 30% of the cost of the car is the batteries, a -for example- $50,000 Tesla Model 3's sticker would rise to about $52,700.

Yes and they also ignored that the race is on to due away with Cobalt and Nickle. The core still needing Lithium which Canada does mine as well as Chile. Lucky that China has not secured the bulk of the worlds lithium supplies in Chile while they have in Africa. 

Tesla, GM, VW and Diamler have all stated they have working prototypes of batteries that have higher energy storage using alternative solid state substrate materials and have these updated batteries in testing as they build production sites.

Competition will force to keep prices in check. I do not agree with Goldman Sachs report.

[ykX]

7 minutes ago, David said:

Yes, I say living in the past not last century people. There are those here that look at life of ICE as a point in time and are not believing that it will change, living in the past. I also pointed out how everything has continued to change and I also have posted that I accept that some want to live in the past with old tech. We each have our choice, but technology and change of auto's is the reality and it is happening and will happen and ICE will go away.

So you have a choice of living in the past or moving forward with the bulk of humanity into the future. Simple.

 

You love to talk like politician, in general terms and slogans.  I am curious to see if you will follow your words with action, hopefully within next year, to bring humanity closer to future as you say.

I don't think at this point that there are many people arguing that EVs are the future.  I think the biggest argument here how close this future is and how economically feasible to switch completely to EVs in 15 years or so. 

Edited March 25, 2021 by ykX

[David]

2 hours ago, balthazar said:

^ I disagree; when someone says the price of X BEV is ‘too high’ and the response is that a $15K cheaper IC “equivalent” sedan is also expensive, that IMO absolutely dismisses the initial statement. If money were no object, most big sedans could just be cancelled and let the S-class pick every buyer up.

Obviously there are buyers for BE’s, and that market share is slowly creeping up, but also obviously; going to a 100% BE industry is going to push many buyers out of the market.

Waitin on my new GMC to be built, and it’s stupid expensive, but a Rivian is 50% more with NO OPTIONS. I would not be willing to pay that tag. Now picture folks struggling to swing a $30K mid-sizer and staring (potentially) at a $40K+ EV variant. 

Price disparity is everything.

Valid points, but I still believe that science will find a way to increase density while reducing cost and moving to more natural, plentiful material in a solid state battery.

[David]

6 minutes ago, ykX said:

You love to talk like politician, in general terms and slogans.  I am curious to see if you will follow your words with action, hopefully within next year, to bring humanity closer to future as you say.

I don't think at this point that there are many people arguing that EVs are the future.  I think the biggest argument here how close this future is and how economically feasible to switch completely to EVs in 15 years or so. 

Too funny that you say politician as I am anything but, yet I do look forward to what the future will bring.

[balthazar]

David - have you seen any directly-comparable costs for lithium vs. solid state batteries (IE; same power levels)? I know solid state batteries aren't a reality yet, so likely those numbers don't exist, but 'upgrades' in tech usually cost MORE, not less... but I ask because I don't know.

RE the Goldman Sachs piece, any race for substitute chemistry batteries only affects future vehicles; meanwhile the standard chemistry raw materials are needed NOW, and as BE sales inch upward; that's increased demand. I don't think the market economics of that very real scenario are arguable.

 

18 minutes ago, David said:

I accept that some want to live in the past with old tech.

That aspect is immaterial. 'Not living with old tech' is the mindset of people who camp out overnight to get the next generation smart phone on Day 1, with every generation, blowing money. It merely feeds voracious consumerism, planned obsolescence, waste & inefficiencies. You don't need it, but have been conditioned that you do (IMO).

Edited March 25, 2021 by balthazar

[ccap41]

19 hours ago, David said:

Sighhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Where does one begin when one has (ASSUMPTION) not ever been to India. I work with plenty of Indian Engineers who will back me up on this having grown up in India. 

My in-laws are from India. 

19 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

See my above post to ykx about cars we like and how it has jack &#036;h&#33; do with owning one. You love a lot of Mercedes vehicles but yet you, yourself, have never owned any of them (at least not that you've mentioned here). What are your excuses? (that last part is rhetorical btw)

Sure have owned a Mercedes. No, I don't currently own one. 

The difference is the blind defense of them. There aren't great Mercedes and there aren't good reasons to buy an EV or convert everything to electric. 

18 hours ago, ykX said:

The difference is you and David are calling people last century people, stuck in the past, backward people etc for criticizing anything said against EVs.  Even though I think majority of people here raise very reasonable issues  and questions with EVs (except maybe ocnblu).  You guys are such great proponents of EVs that I think it is only appropriate to expect for you to put actions behind your words.  I think it is very different from loving a Corvette and not buying it.  Even in that case I would say if someone is a great proponent of lets say sports cars and never had one, I would call that person out.  Because you can find a sports car for any budget.

At least ocnblu puts his money where his mouth is an owns a Benz. 

..just say'n.. 

[ccap41]

19 hours ago, Robert Hall said:

So 30 minutes a day is unrealistic for most heavy equipment probably, except maybe something like those giant earth movers or huge off-road dump trucks.

My assumption would be the entire fleet may take 30 minutes in total. 

17 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

Should they face the same scrutiny? No they shouldn’t because that kind of thinking is just asinine and just a childish retort when you have no better argument.

Then why do you give ocnblu such a hard time for being a Benz fan? 

[ccap41]

7 hours ago, ykX said:

Personally, and I said that before, I think EVs are the future.  It is just there are still significant amount of issues to be resolved before EVs will be able to really replace ICE and go mainstream.  I am just trying to look at things realistically, instead through rose colored glasses like some people here.

+1

[David]

4 hours ago, balthazar said:

David - have you seen any directly-comparable costs for lithium vs. solid state batteries (IE; same power levels)? I know solid state batteries aren't a reality yet, so likely those numbers don't exist, but 'upgrades' in tech usually cost MORE, not less... but I ask because I don't know.

RE the Goldman Sachs piece, any race for substitute chemistry batteries only affects future vehicles; meanwhile the standard chemistry raw materials are needed NOW, and as BE sales inch upward; that's increased demand. I don't think the market economics of that very real scenario are arguable.

 

That aspect is immaterial. 'Not living with old tech' is the mindset of people who camp out overnight to get the next generation smart phone on Day 1, with every generation, blowing money. It merely feeds voracious consumerism, planned obsolescence, waste & inefficiencies. You don't need it, but have been conditioned that you do (IMO).

Hi Balthazar,

I will look and see if I can find any direct comparisons. The closest and why I think this way is companies that have been covered in the news and are at the build up stage to go mass production such as the following story:

QuantumScape's New Solid-State Battery Is Twice as Energy-Dense as Lithium-Ion (singularityhub.com)

Quote: 

Today’s lithium-ion batteries rely on a liquid electrolyte to ferry lithium ions between an anode (the negative electrode) made of graphite and a cathode (the positive electrode), which can be made from a variety of materials.

The promise of a solid-state lithium metal battery is that you can swap out that graphite anode for one made of pure lithium and do away with the liquid electrolyte in favor of a solid one. This would obviously dramatically increase the energy density of the battery and is the reason scientists and engineers have been striving after the idea for decades.

As we move away from early rare earth elements, we move towards solutions that use Silicon and Graphene over graphite. These materials are in abundance and cheap which is what will help to reduce battery cost and eventually stop the use of child labor in Africa for Colbalt as we stop using it.

UPDATE on Quantum as they go into Pilot Production of less expensive solid state batteries not using rare earth elements such as Cobalt, Nickle and Magnesium.

QuantumScape’s Next Step: Multilayer Solid-State Battery Cell Volume Production, CEO Says (forbes.com)

Excellent info for those wanting to understand the changes coming from todays batteries built with rare earth elements to solid state batteries.

EV Battery: What Materials are Behind It? (Anode and Cathode) (matmatch.com)

Additional good high level info on battery and the changes coming.

How solid-state batteries can transform electric cars - Roadshow (cnet.com)

This I feel is a really good take on Solid State batteries and what we gain going from traditional Lithium-ion to solid state.

The State of Solid-State Lithium Batteries (batterytechonline.com)

Many sites have the same news today, but this one seemed to be the most complete on Solid State Batteries race:

FutureBridge Predicts Solid-State Battery Cost Will Match Lithium-Ion By 2025 (insideevs.com)

Pretty much the goal of auto companies and Toyota, Panasonic and the whole Japanese consortium that is planning to move into pilot production this year with auto use of solid state batteries by 2025 believe they can have solid stated batteries or SSB being equal in price with higher density to Lithium-Ion by 2025 with these Solid State Batteries to be good for 30 years retaining 90% of their charge holding power after 3 decades.

Quote: Toyota says it is aiming for its SSBs to have a lifespan of 30 years - by that it means they should still retain 90 percent of their original capacity after three decades of normal use.

Quote: analysis of the 2020 patent landscape in SSBs identified 426 published patent filings. China and US witnessed the highest patenting activity with 21% of the total filings each, followed by Japan with 18% filings. Toyota, Panasonic, Nippon, Hyundai, Murata Manufacturing, and LG Chem were among the leaders. Carmakers accounted for 28% of the SSB patent filings, led by Toyota and followed by Hyundai and Honda. The remaining 72% of filings came from diverse players like battery manufacturers, automotive suppliers, chemical companies, and academia.

Quote: Back in 2010, the cost per 1 kWh in lithium-ion batteries was over $1,000 and in the space of a decade, it has gone down nearly tenfold. It is predicted that the cost of lithium-ion batteries will keep going down and that by 2030, the average price per 1 kWh will dip below $60. It currently seems implausible that SSBs would drop so much in cost by then, but with the sheer number of companies actively working on this, a breakthrough that could allow it is not out of the question.

[surreal1272]

3 hours ago, ccap41 said:

Then why do you give ocnblu such a hard time for being a Benz fan? 

When I have I ever said anything to Blu about Benz? Name even one time. 

4 hours ago, ccap41 said:

At least ocnblu puts his money where his mouth is an owns a Benz. 

..just say'n.. 

Again, what?

[oldshurst442]

I had an internal struggle regarding the price argument.

Yes, an ICE version of the SAME model that also has an EV version, will be CONSIDERABLY LESS.  No buts, ifs or ands. But we CONTINUE to bang that drum all across the EV board. And its kinda false.

We seem to always make this argument and to justify our point we will take a LESSER ICE vehicle and compare it DIRECTLY to a more advanced EV model...

Example from last week:  We took a 26 000 dollar base Escape and compared it to a 50 000 dollar Mach E.

Wrong in 2 ways:

1. base model family CUV

2. FAMILY CUV

We then proceeded to compare the Mach E to its other brother. The Escape's bigger brother. The Edge.  While the Edge is closer in spirit to the Mach E, THIS is where my internal struggle begins.

While in those two scenarios, the Mach E and EVs in general, seem to lose the value argument on fuel savings and we equate that being more expensive than their ICE  counterparts.

BUT... after reading and listening to many other opinions on how ICE vehicles average transaction prices are going up and up and up...I started looking at another angle that EVERYBODY seems to miss.  More or less on the Mach E rather than another EV. 

I done a quick research and found that a BMW X4 is actually about the same price as a Mach E...

The exterior and interior dimensions are 99.9% identical.

https://www.cars.com/research/compare/?acodes=USD10FOS392B0,USD10BMS261A0

In this case of a Mach E and a BMW X4, I wanna know why are we tooting that EVs are inherently pricier?

Both are lifestyle, sporty coupey CUVs trying to sell to the same lifestyle, sporty coupey CUV buyer which is a more affluent buyer. And BOTH the Bimmer and the Ford are marketing to.  The Escape is just a pedestrian, family haulin', CUV for the Average Joe.  Doesnt seem logical to me to try and tell me EVs are pricier than when we do comparisons like that.

 

 

When you look at the EV that is the Mach E and we compare it to a VERY comparable and SIMILAR ICE CUV in EVERY way INCLUDING to what market niche they BOTH belong to...then in THIS case I'll have to argue that:

NO!  EVs are not NECESSARILY more pricier than their ICE counterparts.  At least in THIS case, they are actually the SAME price.  I see progress to which EVs are starting to get price parity as their ICE counterparts ESPECIALLY when ICE average transaction prices are going higher. 

And when we choose to say that EVs are just 2% of the market place, its NOT the EVs that are making the average transaction price go up. Its ICE vehicles themselves.

I dont want to confuse the situation and you folk will think that Im saying that EVs have price parity...Ive said in the beginning of this thought that turned into a long post that they do not. Its just that in the coming year or two, when many EV models will be available to the US consumer from GM, VW and others, many scenarios like this one will be replicated. And eventually, cheaper MSRP EV models will be introduced.  When will that be? I do not know. But in the 40 000-60 000 dollar range, EVs will CERTAINLY be on par with their ICE counterparts offering same interior and exterior dimensions, luxury and options and even LONGER drive ranges than fuel tanks...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ykX]

@oldshurst442 I think you make a good argument comparing X4 and Mach E. 

IMPO the difference is that X4 is luxury crossover from premium brand and Mach E supposed to be auto for the masses.   The fact is that they are priced similarly shows that at least this point all EVs are more of a luxury vehicles, than mass market ones, even though majority of them don't have the "luxury" feel.

I do have to say, when I was at local Ford dealership last week, they had couple Mach E.  I couldn't sit inside but from outside the interior looked nice, definitely better than Tesla Y.  I am not sure I would call it luxurious though.

Edited March 26, 2021 by ykX

[ccap41]

14 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

When I have I ever said anything to Blu about Benz? Name even one time. 

Sorry, not ocnblu, smk. 

14 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

Again, what?

smk, not ocnblu. 

[oldshurst442]

1 hour ago, ykX said:

@oldshurst442 I think you make a good argument comparing X4 and Mach E. 

IMPO the difference is that X4 is luxury crossover from premium brand and Mach E supposed to be auto for the masses.   The fact is that they are priced similarly shows that at least this point all EVs are more of a luxury vehicles, than mass market ones, even though majority of them don't have the "luxury" feel.

I do have to say, when I was at local Ford dealership last week, they had couple Mach E.  I couldn't sit inside but from outside the interior looked nice, definitely better than Tesla Y.  I am not sure I would call it luxurious though.

 

That is all I ask of that post, is for us to discuss the various angles to which we hold judgement on what is of value. Of what is something worth.  

Technology?

Lux interiors?

Speed and performance?

Ive only seen 2 Mach Es so far. The Ford dealership near my house where I bought my wife's Fusion, they had one outside. And on the road.  I have not gotten the opportunity to sit inside one myself.  I saw the interior much like yourself and I deduced that its an interior like a Titanium trimmed Edge.  Ive not sat in a recent BMW therefore I could not comment on how upscale BMW's have got since a decade ago, but a titanium trimmed Ford is on par with BMWs of a decade ago.

But on the flipside, that 50 000 dollar BMW X4 also has a 4 cylinder engine. 

My internal struggle went deep.  

I was thinking about how GM and Ford kept on whining on how they can NOT build small cars in North America as its too expensive for them and they can NOT make money on them.  With THAT thought in mind, I internally made the connection that EVs too, the tech behind them, OEMs can NOT make money on them on the lower priced scale as the tech and batteries are too expensive for them to make any money...

Yes...I know. Not quite the same thing.  But its an angle that I wanted to tackle just the same.

There is more.

Speed and performance.

While Im NOT doubting that the regular X4 may not be a slouch despite its 4 cylinder, the Mach E DOES spank it in performance.  Both performance models start at the same price at 60 000 dollars but the X4M shoots up in price THAT much faster.   All for an inline 6.  I believe no V8 is offered. 

With THAT in mind, we are now seeing a RETRACTION of cylinders with the internal combustion engine for high end products.  THAT would be another angle I wanna talk about.  We are seeing that the  V8 that was all too common not too long ago, as the decades have come by since the 1970s, the common V8 is now an aristocrat's engine.      

A little less lux interior versus state of the art powertrain for lesser 4 cylinder and 6 cylinder ICE, to which the electric powertrain will trounce the ICE counterpart in speed and performance...

FoMoCo could have gone to sell this product as a Lincoln, price bump could have been made...a nicer Lincoln interior to rival a Mercedes or BMW etc...

They went with a Ford. A Mustang name plate. marketing reasons. They figured they could make money on an EV that starts in the 40 thousands... With a controversial nameplate.  Keeps a buzz about the product...

Seeing average transaction prices are at 40 000, the Mach E is just there at that price point...the point of my exercise was to show that EVs are not really THAT far off with price parity with ICE.  

I had some logic to it.  If one has an open mind about it, much like yourself, THANK-YOU, one could have a different take on this whole EV/ICE thing and to how we will get there by 2035. 

Couple that with crude Chinese EVs that are 4000 dollars which are not as far off in concept and execution and price corrected from a 1920s Ford Model T...    Yes...yes...we have come a loooong way from a Model T and our vehicular expectations...   THAT is NOT the point of my angle here...

There is a middle ground here to where affordable EVs NEED NOT be crude 4000 dollar death traps and NEED NOT be high priced (like a Tesla Model S) or toys like the Mach E either.   There will be an EV that WILL be sold in the mid $20 thousands to $30 thousands that will be the equivalent to a Ford Escape.   Its not now, but by 2035?  Maybe...

Edited March 26, 2021 by oldshurst442

[oldshurst442]

https://www.autoblog.com/2021/03/26/honda-kawasaki-suzuki-yamaha-motorcycle-batteries/

Quote

 

The four companies created an organization back in April 2019 for this sort of purpose called the Swappable Battery Consortium for Electric Motorcycles. And the group has now announced that the manufacturers have agreed on the specifications for motorcycle batteries that can be interchanged among each company's motorcycles. So if you have a Suzuki, you can use a Honda battery, or vice versa.

This idea presents quite a few interesting possibilities. The manufacturers could sell bikes with or without batteries, since you might already have a battery from your previous bike, or just another one you own, so you wouldn't have to shell out to buy an entirely new battery. If, for whatever reason, you needed a replacement battery, it should be easy to get one, since the same type would support bikes from a variety of manufacturers. The pipe dream of battery swapping stations might even be feasible because of the standardization and support. And having the batteries relatively easy to remove could be good for apartment dwellers, since they might be able to bring a battery inside to charge.

The manufacturers haven't said exactly what the specifications are for these interchangeable batteries, nor when they'll be implemented. But we'll be eagerly awaiting more information in the future.

 

 

 

[oldshurst442]

The link      https://www.gogoro.com/      is both  related to the battery swapping consortium plan of Honda/Suzuki/Yamaha/Suzuki for future EV Japanese motorcycles that I just posted above this post and to the conversation we had about India and how India will be electrified.  

Gogoro is a Taiwanese scooter company doing exactly that. Battery swapping and the like. Click on the link to see how they are actually doing since 2015 and another solution on how the planet, especially in countries where mopeds, scooters, bicycles are THE transportation mode, a solution on how the planet will become fully electric by 2035.

Dont want to cause any hurt feelings, but some of us North Americans really do whine a lot and really do nothing else. We dont really  innovate anymore.  

Taiwan has a working system out already with EV battery swaps for scooters...

Guys...we've been so comfortable in our smug, shytty ways and so phoquing blinded by our shyte politicians with their corrupt lobbyists pulling our wool over our eyes that we havent noticed that former 3rd world countries are kicking our ass...

 

Edited March 26, 2021 by oldshurst442