Random Thoughts Thread

[Drew Dowdell]

42 minutes ago, ocnblu said:

Or they could have just put the extra money they kept in their paychecks all year in the bank toward that new car, or warshing machine, or whatever...

That supposition has two problems:

1. For a lot of people,particularly those in the middle-class who used to itemize deductions, that didn't happen. Their overall tax liability went up. So when they file their returns this year, not only do they not get a refund, they're owing thousands. The amount "extra" they got in their paycheck doesn't add up to the amount they end up owing.

2. For others they took that "raise" and spent it during the year... if they even noticed much of a difference, leaving nothing but a small refund at the end of the tax year. 

Either way, it could have an impact on sales of certain big ticket items. 

1 hour ago, dfelt said:

Totally expected, I know I did my Son and Daughters Tax refund and it is next to nothing even with their student loan interest and other deductibles, they are only getting a few hundred dollars back. Both my kids have said they are putting it towards bills and will not be buying anything this year like in years past when they would put the bulk towards their debt and still buy something for themselves.

I expect the Tax Refund Specials to fall on on their faces and we will not be seeing the spending of tax refunds like in years past. This will long term change the way people spend money and how they handle debt.

That could be a good thing.

[ocnblu]

55 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

That supposition has two problems:

1. For a lot of people,particularly those in the middle-class who used to itemize deductions, that didn't happen. Their overall tax liability went up. So when they file their returns this year, not only do they not get a refund, they're owing thousands. The amount "extra" they got in their paycheck doesn't add up to the amount they end up owing.

2. For others they took that "raise" and spent it during the year... if they even noticed much of a difference, leaving nothing but a small refund at the end of the tax year. 

Either way, it could have an impact on sales of certain big ticket items. 

That could be a good thing.

My tax man says different.  I believe him.  Sorry.

[Drew Dowdell]

1 minute ago, ocnblu said:

My tax man says different.  I believe him.  Sorry.

Individual results will vary. The overall trend with tax returns isn't looking good for the short term economy.

[balthazar]

The target for taxes is '$0'; you should aim not to owe anything, nor to get any refund.  The closer to that mark you get, the better off you are.  IMO, people who splurge spend their 'free money' refunds are self-deluding & fiscally irresponsible (unless wealthy of course).

The tax bottom line is going to depend on the individual and their state/local taxes.  My wife tells me the percent of people who itemize over the threshold of $12K is only between 10-20%.  IRS said the average refund to date is only down by 8%, and think about it - those filing early are among those expecting the largest refunds. I think the 'effects' are going to be indiscernible, economy-wise.

Edited February 19, 2019 by balthazar

[balthazar]

[David]

2 hours ago, balthazar said:

The target for taxes is '$0'; you should aim not to owe anything, nor to get any refund.  The closer to that mark you get, the better off you are.  IMO, people who splurge spend their 'free money' refunds are self-deluding & fiscally irresponsible (unless wealthy of course).

The tax bottom line is going to depend on the individual and their state/local taxes.  My wife tells me the percent of people who itemize over the threshold of $12K is only between 10-20%.  IRS said the average refund to date is only down by 8%, and think about it - those filing early are among those expecting the largest refunds. I think the 'effects' are going to be indiscernible, economy-wise.

I agree that everyone should target for ZERO, but just too many people seem deluded by claiming more than they should and then complaining about a tax bill that this year seems to be even bigger.

[balthazar]

Add $2200 average to the cost of your $75,000 Audi e-tron.

Not buying $2.31/gal gas for your $38K Audi A4 that gets 30 MPG combined, leaving you only $39,200 to buy fuel... wait... nvrmd.

Edited February 19, 2019 by balthazar

[ocnblu]

SIGNED:  dfelt

[balthazar]

[ccap41]

17 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

So, if everyone's tax refunds are so low this year, what's going to happen to consumer spending when people can't afford those "tax refund specials" you see advertised for furniture and cars? Will we see a slump come April and May?

They should have had more money per paycheck throughout the year. 

[Drew Dowdell]

4 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

They should have had more money per paycheck throughout the year. 

Depends. If they're a middle class family who itemized deductions in prior years, that may not be the case. 

[David]

9 hours ago, balthazar said:

Add $2200 average to the cost of your $75,000 Audi e-tron.

Not buying $2.31/gal gas for your $38K Audi A4 that gets 30 MPG combined, leaving you only $39,200 to buy fuel... wait... nvrmd.

2017, lets look at 2019 now

Pricing has almost dropped in half and if your in an EV friendly state like I am or in this case, the West Coast of Washington, Oregon and California. The local power utilities will install it for free and charge you the on average cost of $593 as they will make it back in the charging cost you pay for power.

https://www.improvenet.com/r/costs-and-prices/electric-car-charger-station-installation-cost

Like everything as production scales up, costs go down.

[A Horse With No Name]

23 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

So, if everyone's tax refunds are so low this year, what's going to happen to consumer spending when people can't afford those "tax refund specials" you see advertised for furniture and cars? Will we see a slump come April and May?

But of course....

5 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Depends. If they're a middle class family who itemized deductions in prior years, that may not be the case. 

My accountant says it is all over the board...helped some people...hurt a lot of people.

19 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Individual results will vary. The overall trend with tax returns isn't looking good for the short term economy.

Short term and long term economy have a number of other hurdles.

Back to cars...

 

 

[David]

 

[balthazar]

[Robert Hall]

Backing out of my garage this afternoon I smashed my passenger side mirror on the garage door frame...damn narrow ass garage. 

[ocnblu]

16 minutes ago, Robert Hall said:

Backing out of my garage this afternoon I smashed my passenger side mirror on the garage door frame...damn narrow ass garage. 

So you've joined the ranks of my 80-year old customers.  Maybe AARP can get you a discount on car insurance.

No but really, some of those mirrors can be downright silly priced, depending on the level of bell & whistle.

[Robert Hall]

Heated with the turn signal repeater...too bad it wasn't the power folding type.  Looks like I can get one off eBay for around $100-120.  I replaced the passenger mirror on my old Jeep after hitting a highway orange barrel with it 15 years ago. 

It only cracked the non-chromed part (black) of the outer lower housing and took out a chunk..a little black electrical tape or duct tape and it will be fine for now.. Everything still works.

Edited February 20, 2019 by Robert Hall

[balthazar]

[balthazar]

13 hours ago, dfelt said:

2017, lets look at 2019 now.
Pricing has almost dropped in half...

Like everything as production scales up, costs go down.

I posted a Level 2 charger was $500-$700, and you posted it was $600-$700. That's not "almost half", it's actually MORE.
I posted parts & installation was $1200-$2000, and you posted $65-85/hr, which doesn't address parts and doesn't address total installation cost. That again is not "almost half".

If you take the average of the numbers I posted ($1600) and divided by the average of the hourly rate you posted ($75), you get 21 hours (with NO parts). Once you factor in plans, permits & inspections, plus the parts & actual work, I can easily see the $1600 for installation, parts & time being legitimate.

- - - - -
Each & every '53 Buick Skylark had the owner's name(s) handwritten in the steering wheel medallion. I've looked at a bunch of pics of this car and even the 'Customized for' is written differently in different cars.

The vehicle in the very center is a representation of the 1st Buick, built in 1903.

Edited February 20, 2019 by balthazar

[oldshurst442]

It does not matter how much chargers cost to buy and install. Part of the experience of owning an EV. One shot deal expense.

A Chevrolet Bolt is still a 37 000 dollar car. If one is to cry even for a 2000 dollar expense, then a Chevrolet Bolt, or any 37 000 dollar car may not be for that person. Maybe Chevrolet's Sonic/Spark is the right vehicle choice.

The Leaf may come in at a cheaper price, same thoughts I have for the Leaf concerning this.

A charger that even costs 2000 dollars, is just a 5-7% of the car's purchase price. Like opting to buy a regular car, but opting for a $2000 trim package because of better radio, or safety package or body panel enhancements like plastic body panel cladding how Pontiac charged you literally that much (2000 dollars Canadian) over the base SE Grand Am to upgrade to a Grand Am GT. 

At least a 2000 dollar charger makes your life owning an EV that much easier.  

But its funny, when talking about a gasoline powered car, nobody talks about the  approx. 3000- 5000 mile oil change intervals you must do on it.  

At Pep Boys (I just googled) it says 34.99 for regular oil or 21.99 with a groupon coupon.  For cheap oil...

At a dealership, I imagine the price is a lot more. 

At 100 000 mile ownership at approximately every 5000 miles at 30 dollars a pop, that would be 600 dollars in oil for just about half the vehicles ownership. 

Now, I just used two comparisons that are apples to oranges to one another, but it gives you a scope of how car ownership has extra "fees" that must be paid to maintain and use your car with ease...

One could opt NOT to buy a charger, but installing one at home makes EV ownership well worth the price...of ditching gasoline powered cars forever. THAT is how of little importance is of ponying up that 2000 dollars for a home charger and how valuable and how far that 2000 dollars gets you. Id say much much farther than a better satnav system or plastic body panels for your Pontiac goes...

 

 

Edited February 20, 2019 by oldshurst442

[balthazar]

What you term 'part of the experience' is really 'writing another check'.

The crux of the EV vs. IC ownership discussion seems to always boil down to price. It 'saves' the owner so much here, here, and here. I forget which high-priced EV car is advertised at "$xx,xxx" where they deduct some large dollar amount for fuel you don't have to buy, right in the sticker price. Rivian is deducting the EV tax credit from the sticker price of their pickup, when that amount is FAR from guaranteed to everyone. Disingenuous.

COST is the Prime Directive of vehicle ownership; it defines the tiers of vehicles, it's the crux of all 'buy vs. lease' discussions, it's the very definition of the Blazer RS narrative, it continues to dog the Corvette ('best sports car for the buck / competes with exotics priced much higher'), it spurs incentives on every. single. vehicle. sold. With EVs, its pertinent to be realistic on the cost; it matters. Why do you think Tesla logged 400,000 orders for a vehicle no one had seen but was merely described as 'a Tesla sedan costing $35,000'? Why didn't those people just buy the much better Model S?

I'm fairly confident everyone on the planet is aware of oil changes for IC vehicles, but I'm far less so in some of the associated costs connected with EV ownership. How the tax credit scenario works is a real eye-opener.

[oldshurst442]

1 minute ago, balthazar said:

What you term 'part of the experience' is really 'writing another check'.

The crux of the EV vs. IC ownership discussion seems to always boil down to price. It 'saves' the owner so much here, here, and here. I forget which high-priced EV car is advertised at "$xx,xxx" where they deduct some large dollar amount for fuel you don't have to buy, right in the sticker price. Rivian is deducting the EV tax credit from the sticker price of their pickup, when that amount is FAR from guaranteed to everyone. Disingenuous.

COST is the Prime Directive of vehicle ownership; it defines the tiers of vehicles, it's the crux of all 'buy vs. lease' discussions, it's the very definition of the Blazer RS narrative, it continues to dog the Corvette ('best sports car for the buck / competes with exotics priced much higher'), it spurs incentives on every. single. vehicle. sold. With EVs, its pertinent to be realistic on the cost; it matters. Why do you think Tesla logged 400,000 orders for a vehicle no one had seen but was merely described as 'a Tesla sedan costing $35,000'? Why didn't those people just buy the much better Model S?

I'm fairly confident everyone on the planet is aware of oil changes for IC vehicles, but I'm far less so in some of the associated costs connected with EV ownership. How the tax credit scenario works is a real eye-opener.

All irrelevant...

You still have the choice NOT to install one. 

All irrelevant...

Anything you buy or choose not to buy , or upgrade or remain with a base model or choose a high priced foreign exotic or remain domestic yet still experience supercar performance  but not be able to flaunt pompously is a question of want. 

59 000 Tesla Model 3 and we add 2000-3000 to that for the supoercharger remains not a 59 000 car, but a 62 000 doallr car. For a Bolt, we buy a 43 000 dollar Bolt but we dont, we actually buy a 45 000 dollar Bolt.

If the charger was included in the price of the vehicle and given to you for "free" nobody would bat an eyelash...

But maybe some people would complain that they dont need or want a charger...

This way, it gives an option to people. One could use their regular 120 volt receptacles if they wanted too...

Much ad about nothing, really.

 

 

[balthazar]

Sure it's optional. It's optional to buy an EV, too.

But once the narrative is "everyone WILL be driving an EV" and 'within 10 or 20 years', it sure makes it sound like it's actually not optional, doesn't it?

And if it's 'NBD', why would a manufacturer include a highly variable (and in some cases completely non-applicable) tax credit in the purchase price of their vehicle? After all, isn't spending another $7500, unexpectedly (after being told you won't have to), NBD?

Edited February 20, 2019 by balthazar

[oldshurst442]

1 minute ago, balthazar said:

Sure it's optional. It's optional to buy an EV, too.

But once the narrative is "everyone WILL be driving an EV" and 'within 10 or 20 years', it sure makes it sound like it's actually not optional, doesn't it?

Yeah...but...like everything else, if everybody will be driving these things in 10-20-30 years, well, cost per unit will decrease because of this thing called mass produced at a very grand scale, because global scale. 10 million cars per year in North America, add another 6-8 million for Europe, add another 12-15 million for Asia. 

These things will be as common as toasters. 

And, we will have customized versions of those. Not only Ferrari branded chargers along with the Tesla ones, but New York Yankees and Hello Kitty ones and Cuisinarts and Michael Korrs...

Point being, as (if) EVs become more and more popular, so will the chargers. 

Home entertainment systems became a thing. 

Home saunas have become a thing

Home hot air dryers for the ladies to do their hair was a thing

Now its just a little gun...

Just like 3D printers are getting steam. Just like the home personal computer is a thing...

And all those that I talked about...were indeed thousands of dollars in those times money...

 

[Robert Hall]

I'd assume in the future chargers will just be another piece of standard infrastructure in home construction, integrated into the electrical stuff..

Edited February 20, 2019 by Robert Hall

[oldshurst442]

As far as writing another check goes..

Well, this is life...

Its how we do things. We buy a 500 dollar Playstation. We get 1 game, two at most, but then we fork over 50 bucks each time we buy another game. Then the next gen Playstaion comes along 2-3 years later, we fork over another 500 bucks and the cycle continues...

 

[Robert Hall]

5 minutes ago, oldshurst442 said:

As far as writing another check goes..

Well, this is life...

Its how we do things. We buy a 500 dollar Playstation. We get 1 game, two at most, but then we fork over 50 bucks each time we buy another game. Then the next gen Playstaion comes along 2-3 years later, we fork over another 500 bucks and the cycle continues...

 

Yeah, stuff gets obsolete after a few years, have to get new stuff to replace the old stuff...the cycle of life.   Though some formats remain useful longer..I still have and use CDs though I have most everything in MP3s also.    And I still have Blu Rays though I mostly stream video content...

Edited February 20, 2019 by Robert Hall

[oldshurst442]

6 minutes ago, Robert Hall said:

I'd assume in the future chargers will just be another piece of standard home infrastructure in home construction, integrated into the electrical stuff..

For new construction, yes, definitely.

But existing homes will have to purchase what we are talking about now.  

No big deal. Much ado about nothing. 

 

[Robert Hall]

18 minutes ago, oldshurst442 said:

For new construction, yes, definitely.

But existing homes will have to purchase what we are talking about now.  

No big deal. Much ado about nothing. 

 

Maybe, but I'm not buying one, but then again, I'm not buying an EV anytime soon either...I figure I'll be driving another 30 years maybe, I don't see ICE vehicles disappearing in the next 30 years. 

Edited February 20, 2019 by Robert Hall

[oldshurst442]

6 minutes ago, Robert Hall said:

Yeah, stuff gets obsolete after a few years, have to get new stuff to replace the old stuff...the cycle of life.   Though some formats remain useful longer..I still have and use CDs though I have most everything in MP3s also.    And I still have Blu Rays though I mostly stream video content...

I do not do streaming. Nor the cloud. I buy DVDs and Blu Ray still. 

The only thing I do not do are VHS and cassette tapes. 

I do use a USB key and have transferred some songs from my CD collection to the USB key and use that key in my wife's Fusion. I have downloaded apps where the app converts youtube downloads and saves it on the computer or phone and from there I transfer it on to the USB key.  I could go  cloud on that, but I refuse to adopt still. I have also used In my Acura, my car has  storage for media integrated in the radio and Ive done that. 

Edited February 20, 2019 by oldshurst442

[Robert Hall]

1 minute ago, oldshurst442 said:

I do not do streaming. Nor the cloud. I buy DVDs and Blu Ray still. 

The only thing I do not do are VHS and cassette tapes. 

I do use a USB key and have transferred some songs from my CD collection to the USB key and use that key in my wife's Fusion. In my Acura, my car has  storage for media integrated in  the radio and Ive done that. 

Since I ditched cable, I pretty much stream everything to my Fire TV w/ Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, etc.    I use a USB key for my music collection to play in my Jeep, though I do use Sirius XM often and CDs in there also.   

[oldshurst442]

7 minutes ago, Robert Hall said:

Maybe, but I'm not buying one, but then again, I'm not buying on EV anytime soon either...I figure I'll be driving another 30 years maybe, I don't see ICE vehicles disappearing in the next 30 years. 

Im still weighing in. I want a Tesla Model 3. But I dont, 

I want a similar car, a tad bigger, maybe Model S big, maybe a tad smaller, in the price range of a Model 3, that has range of a Model 3. 

I guess Im waiting for more choices to arrive to fully get on board. 

But there will be 1 EV and 1 gasoline powered car in the family if I choose to go with EV in the next 5 or so years. I aint giving up my Acura anytime soon. 

[surreal1272]

Well, it seems like the site doesn't want me to see any posts past the first page. This started a little over a week ago but whether I’m on the iPad, my phone, or computer, I get this never ending “loading” message whenever I try to go to another page of any thread here. Let me know when this is fixed because I have tried everything on my end.

@Drew Dowdell

 

[ccap41]

I get that if I try and go from one page to another but if you refresh the screen it loads it correctly. 

[Drew Dowdell]

I ran the support tool to clear out the server cache. Let me know if that helps.

[balthazar]

Yeah, MOST of consumer goods drop in price over time.  The first Texas Instruments calculator used to be a capital investment; it was $150 in 1972 ($910 in 2018 dollars).

Doesn't seem to happen with automobiles, however.  Model S was supposed to come out in the mid-$50K range.  Never happened.  Then it was in the mid-$60K range.  Then they dropped the 60kW in '17 and the 75kW last month, and the NOW minimum ante for a Model S --after 8 years on the market-- is $94K.

[surreal1272]

11 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

I ran the support tool to clear out the server cache. Let me know if that helps.

@ccap41 Suggestion actually worked but I can’t figure why that started like that in the first place. I had no OS updates on my end so I knew that wasn’t the problem. Strange. Thanks for the tip @ccap41.  

[Drew Dowdell]

Just now, surreal1272 said:

@ccap41 Suggestion actually worked but I can’t figure why that started like that in the first place. I had no OS updates on my end so I knew that wasn’t the problem. Strange. Thanks for the tip @ccap41.  

We're in a weird spot on the forum software. A new version of the software is currently in Beta, but the creator of this theme we use (a separate entity from the forum software manufacturer) appears to have gone out of business and is no longer offering support.  I don't want to spend the $50 to upgrade to a new theme when it might not be compatible with the next version of the forum software whcihcomes out in a few weeks to a month. 

At the moment, it looks like @ccap41's suggestion might be the temporary solution.   Otherwise, if you scroll to the bottom and select Theme, you should be able to pick CGDefaut2 which puts you back on the older theme. 

[A Horse With No Name]

1 hour ago, Robert Hall said:

Maybe, but I'm not buying one, but then again, I'm not buying an EV anytime soon either...I figure I'll be driving another 30 years maybe, I don't see ICE vehicles disappearing in the next 30 years. 

I will be dead and gone when EV's fully take over.

[surreal1272]

3 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

We're in a weird spot on the forum software. A new version of the software is currently in Beta, but the creator of this theme we use (a separate entity from the forum software manufacturer) appears to have gone out of business and is no longer offering support.  I don't want to spend the $50 to upgrade to a new theme when it might not be compatible with the next version of the forum software whcihcomes out in a few weeks to a month. 

At the moment, it looks like @ccap41's suggestion might be the temporary solution.   Otherwise, if you scroll to the bottom and select Theme, you should be able to pick CGDefaut2 which puts you back on the older theme. 

No biggie. I understand that process more than you might realize. Website updates and maintenance are genuine pains in the butt sometimes. We do what we can do sometimes and just go with it.

[A Horse With No Name]

4 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

We're in a weird spot on the forum software. A new version of the software is currently in Beta, but the creator of this theme we use (a separate entity from the forum software manufacturer) appears to have gone out of business and is no longer offering support.  I don't want to spend the $50 to upgrade to a new theme when it might not be compatible with the next version of the forum software whcihcomes out in a few weeks to a month. 

At the moment, it looks like @ccap41's suggestion might be the temporary solution.   Otherwise, if you scroll to the bottom and select Theme, you should be able to pick CGDefaut2 which puts you back on the older theme. 

Thanks. Regardless of format we are a bunch of grouchy old men arguing about cars we will never drop coin to buy....and I love it that any...would not want it any other way.

Even if 'Blu regualrly soiling his depends means the Jeepiat needs a detail every few days....and a good airing out....(Horse ducks wrench thrown from Lancaster to Ohio....)(Just kidding bro!)

[ccap41]

13 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

@ccap41 Suggestion actually worked but I can’t figure why that started like that in the first place. I had no OS updates on my end so I knew that wasn’t the problem. Strange. Thanks for the tip @ccap41.  

👍 It started doing that probably last week for me and I tried that.. Not exactly sure the actual issue but it seems to work for now. 

[A Horse With No Name]

2 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

No biggie. I understand that process more than you might realize. Website updates and maintenance are genuine pains in the butt sometimes. We do what we can do sometimes and just go with it.

Nothing in life runs according to plan...except for the trains in Musolini's Italy....

Just now, ccap41 said:

👍 It started doing that probably last week for me and I tried that.. Not exactly sure the actual issue but it seems to work for now. 

Exactly.

 

[David]

13 hours ago, balthazar said:

Now that reminds me of an EV!  

I wonder if Rivian took inspiration from it.

[David]

3 hours ago, Robert Hall said:

I'd assume in the future chargers will just be another piece of standard infrastructure in home construction, integrated into the electrical stuff..

Very true, Washington, Oregon and California actually require in all new home construction that EV chargers are now installed in the Garage. New Apartment and Condo units have to include charging areas.

So in this case, you retro fit the older homes or use public charging stations or move to a new home/apartment/condo if you want an EV charger.

[Robert Hall]

Just now, dfelt said:

Very true, Washington, Oregon and California actually require in all new home construction that EV chargers are now installed in the Garage. New Apartment and Condo units have to include charging areas. 

Yes, as always, the West Coast is ahead of everywhere else..always on the leading edge. 

[David]

2 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

Well, it seems like the site doesn't want me to see any posts past the first page. This started a little over a week ago but whether I’m on the iPad, my phone, or computer, I get this never ending “loading” message whenever I try to go to another page of any thread here. Let me know when this is fixed because I have tried everything on my end.

@Drew Dowdell

 

You should check your template your using, we had problems with the custom one and @Drew Dowdell had opened a ticket, since then, I went back to the default one and no problems like that.

[Scout]

This would be nice but I don't think it will ever happen. 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/no-speed-limits-california-considering-faster-lanes-on-two-highways/ar-BBTOU0y

[trinacriabob]

7 minutes ago, Robert Hall said:

Yes, as always, the West Coast is ahead of everywhere else..always on the leading edge. 

Sorry, but I found that a little humorous.  The West Coast can be sensory overload, too!

Wow, has anyone had the experience of giving back a rental car and then getting into their own decade old daily driver and feel like they're on "cloud nine?"  I recently turned in a rented Ford Focus with 36,000 miles on it that didn't ride well (alignment or balancing issues, at the very least) and that much talked about automatic transmission shudder was in evidence, like clockwork, at every 1 - 2 shift.  I was wondering if the transmission in the car would fail while in my tenure.  It didn't.  I sighed when I got out of it, got my belongings, and headed to board the plane.