Measuring Tesla's Success or Failure

[balthazar]

23 hours ago, smk4565 said:

Tesla is an all electric brand and worth more money than GM or Ford.

Tesla makes zero profit. Mitsu,,, actually I have no idea if they make a profit or not, but the billions it would take to develop EVs priced like EVs already here (or will be before mitsu gets off it's ass) would just accelerate mitsu's losses. And newsflash- "$35K" isn't "cheap".

[A Horse With No Name]

22 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Tesla makes zero profit. Mitsu,,, actually I have no idea if they make a profit or not, but the billions it would take to develop EVs priced like EVs already here (or will be before mitsu gets off it's ass) would just accelerate mitsu's losses. And newsflash- "$35K" isn't "cheap".

...and yet everyone for some strange reason sees Tesla as a good business model...strange...

[A Horse With No Name]

31 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

$35k for a mid-size crossover, and that still undercuts the Bolt which is a compact car.  I think Mitsubishi could do a small electric sedan/crossover for $25k.  Mitsubishi's current products have pretty basic interiors, they aren't really well equipped cars.  If you kept the interiors plain jane basic, and put the money into a 150 mile range battery and a 200 hp electric motor they could undercut the Leaf and Bolt easily.

Putting more money into gas powered Mitsubishi's is a waste of money, the brand will close on their current path, might as well close it now if that is their plan to keep the Lancer and Outlander going as is, and to spend money turing a Rogue or Murano into an Eclipse crossover coupe that won't sell.

More valuable than GM or Ford.  

Tesla I think has some potential weaknesses, namely making zero profit, but they are ahead of the game on where the industry is going.  If someone can leap frog them, that is the risk they have. 

Wildly over priced on the stock exchange.

[oldshurst442]

23 minutes ago, A Horse With No Name said:

Wildly over priced on the stock exchange.

Arent most commodities on the stock market overpriced?

Arent most commodities on the stock market priced on speculation that sometimes makes them overpriced and those that arent overpriced, well, those are the ones that are secretive and insider trading happens prior to fixing the hike where the people in the know hock up all the available stock or vice versa where people in the know know and fix a price drop and off load their stock?

Why are we so hung up on Tesla's so-called over-priced over-speculated stock when a President (Ronald Regean) enabled Wallstreet to do this time and time again!

There was a Hollywood movie from the 80s that glorified this

 

A sequel to it recently and a pseudo historical/biographical one about a real Gordon Gecko type...Wolf of Wall Street

 

We are acting like General Motors or FoMoCo never had any favorable IPOs in their 100 plus history...

Edited May 3, 2017 by oldshurst442

[oldshurst442]

As far as Tesla losing money....

*SIGH*

Its a tired argument...

1. Tesla is still the one to fund MOSTLY their OWN Charging Infrastucture...some of those losses...or lack of profit...is because Tesla is still growing its business...

2. Its a moot point when INVESTORS ARE WILLING TO INVEST IN TESLA....THEY BELIEVE IN THE PRODUCTS.....YES....PRODUCTS with an "S"....as in PLURAL....

Tesla announced a SEMI-TRUCK and a PICK-UP TRUCK for the NEAR FUTURE!!!

LIke I said...Tesla is still growing their business....it takes a shyte load of years with lack of profit....

The thing is....Tesla is far from giving its investors vapor ware!

So yeah.....Tesla will continue losing money for a short while.....and Im willing to bet the investors KNOW THIS ALREADY and DONT GIVE A SHYTE!!!!

Because they believe in the company....

Why?

Because when close to 400 000 orders in a week are made on a promise of another model to be sold alongside the other 2 on an artist's sketch, it tells the investors that actual buyers exist and those buyers are nuts for Tesla...

 

IN OTHER WORDS....ITS A NON-ISSUE!!!

So let us not try to pass it off as one!!!

 

Yes yes....with the Model 3, Tesla needs to make some money.....

Tesla announced a SEMI-TRUCK...

Tesla is looking to conquer another market....that too takes money....Im sure the investors are on board with that undertaking too!!!

Edited May 3, 2017 by oldshurst442

[oldshurst442]

500 000 for 2018....

It looks as if Tesla will be close to that figure....

That easily surpasses many car brands even if they only deliver 75% of the Model 3s (and it looks like as if they are on time this time on their promise of delivery dates) and 100 000 Model S and Xs, that would be aprox. 450 000 cars sold for 2018...

I wouldnt be trying to diss Tesla right about now!

Because their business model is of a fanatical frenzy for their automobiles which if nothing else, should be admired at a marketing business model stand-point!!!

Edited May 3, 2017 by oldshurst442

[A Horse With No Name]

So we loose money on every sale but make up for it in volume...

Here I thought only people South of the border had a problem with inhaling the wacky tabbacky.

 

[balthazar]

23 minutes ago, oldshurst442 said:

Arent most commodities on the stock market overpriced?

We are acting like General Motors or FoMoCo never had any favorable IPOs in their 100 plus history...

No, I don't believe "most" are overpriced. There are analytical metrics to evaluate a company's performance vs. stock price, but -much like the car market- Tesla is operating outside the 'normal' metrics. But unless some folk are buying Tesla stock as a charity gesture... one assumes all the other investors are expecting a ROI.
GM & FMC are a lifetime away from their IPOs (1916 and 1956).

[A Horse With No Name]

Just now, balthazar said:

No, I don't believe "most" are overpriced. There are analytical metrics to evaluate a company's performance vs. stock price, but -much like the car market- Tesla is operating outside the 'normal' metrics. But unless some folk are buying Tesla stock as a charity gesture... one assumes all the other investors are expecting a ROI.
GM & FMC are a lifetime away from their IPOs (1916 and 1956).

It is a charity venture.  They turn zero profit...the more cars they sell, the more money they loose.

[balthazar]

34 minutes ago, oldshurst442 said:

500 000 for 2018....

It looks as if Tesla will be close to that figure....

2016 deliveries : 76,230.
I'm not saying that's bad for 2 EV models... but the Model S is getting long in the tooth at this point and there's not much growth potentional in the Model X's price tier. I've seen more XT5s than Model Xs by me, if that means anything.
But it's going to take a number of model years to pump out those 400K units- Tesla cannot produce them in 1 year's time. SO while the company is progressing, it still had major hurdles to overcome. Don't forget, in addition to the 'sketch' that garnered those 400K pre-orders was also the number "$35K". Time will tell.

Edited May 3, 2017 by balthazar

[oldshurst442]

28 minutes ago, balthazar said:

2016 deliveries : 76,230.
I'm not saying that's bad for 2 EV models... but the Model S is getting long in the tooth at this point and there's not much growth potentional in the Model X's price tier. I've seen more XT5s than Model Xs by me, if that means anything.
But it's going to take a number of model years to pump out those 400K units- Tesla cannot produce them in 1 year's time. SO while the company is progressing, it still had major hurdles to overcome. Don't forget, in addition to the 'sketch' that garnered those 400K pre-orders was also the number "$35K". Time will tell.

Model S...long in the tooth?

Ill give you that!

However, sales just keep climbing for it!

 

The Model X just looks weird.

I dont know if that model will ever be a lusted after product!

Nothing to do with EV lustability but everything to do with aesthetics!

Edited May 3, 2017 by oldshurst442

[oldshurst442]

the

42 minutes ago, balthazar said:

No, I don't believe "most" are overpriced. There are analytical metrics to evaluate a company's performance vs. stock price, but -much like the car market- Tesla is operating outside the 'normal' metrics. But unless some folk are buying Tesla stock as a charity gesture... one assumes all the other investors are expecting a ROI.
GM & FMC are a lifetime away from their IPOs (1916 and 1956).

Well, there are board meetings for shareholders....

Unless any of us have attended any of them concerning Tesla, we will never know what shareholders want from Tesla...

But...this was announced...

 

I doubt that this project would be announced if investors wanted CASH right NOW!!!

This is another billion dollar project...money that Tesla dont have....

Yup...Investors must have agreed to greenlight this!

 

[oldshurst442]

PS:

Nothing was announced that the price will go up just as it was announced that the delivery dates are on schedule....

If I were you, Id stop being pessimistic!

400 000 aprox. orders are to be delivered on schedule at about 35K

The price may move, what? 1 thousand? 2 thousand? 5 thousand?

Or it may not  move at all.

It wont move 10 thousand!

You think people will cancel if it goes up by 5K?

HA!

You underestimate the power of Tesla's image!

YOU said it yourself....35K is NOT cheap....

People are already comfortable with 35K ordering it, meaning they are ready and eager for those payments....another 5K maybe, after saving more cash for it for 1.5-2 years WONT be a deal breaker!

YOU are wishing it goes up and YOU are wishing it be a deal breaker, but there is nothing that has been hinted or suggested that this is reality!

[balthazar]

>Well, there are board meetings for shareholders.... Unless any of us have attended any of them concerning Tesla, we will never know what shareholders want from Tesla...<
Shareholder want a return on their investment. Everybody knows that.

>Yup...Investors must have agreed to greenlight this! <
Investors don't have input into future product.

>The price may move, what? 1 thousand? 2 thousand? 5 thousand? Or it may not  move at all.<
Teslacentral.com claims "the average cost once options are factored in is expected to be around $42,000". For the record, that's 7 thousand.
But also do not forget the pro-rated demise of Tesla's EV credit... which WILL hit the Model 3's delivery fairly early (depending on when it arrives). I don't wish anything RE the Model 3's pricing, just stating what I've read.

I have stated it before and will here again; I like Tesla, I hope they continue into the future and they've made great strides, but I will not overlook the pitfalls around the company that Teslafanatics are willing to. It's not pessimism, it's reality.

Edited May 3, 2017 by balthazar

[balthazar]

Tesla Model 3 average sale price and budget to be closer to $50,000 based on latest data from reservation holders

That's 15 thousand.

Another question no one seems to be pondering- what degree of cannabalizing will the Model 3 do to the Model S, especially if a 300 mile range upgrade and most all the associated gee-whiz options are available on the M3?

Edited May 3, 2017 by balthazar

[oldshurst442]

3 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Tesla Model 3 average sale price and budget to be closer to $50,000 based on latest data from reservation holders

That's 15 thousand.

OK....15K and I stand corrected!

Like I said though, and this from YOUR link:

Quote

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said last year that he expects it to be close to $42,000, but new data suggest that reservation holders are preparing their budgets for a significantly higher price.

Reservation holders are preparing to order some of the bells and whistles to reach 50K

The others well...7K more...like I said...NOT a deal breaker!

 

[oldshurst442]

14 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Shareholder want a return on their investment. Everybody knows that.

SURE!

But they are in it for the long haul!

15 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Investors don't have input into future product.

SURE  they do!

They got the money, they dont agree with it, they sell the stock BACK to Tesla, or just dump it cutting their losses and move on!

19 minutes ago, balthazar said:

I have stated it before and will here again; I like Tesla, I hope they continue into the future and they've made great strides, but I will not overlook the pitfalls around the company that Teslafanatics are willing to. It's not pessimism, it's reality.

I aint a fanboy.

Im a fan, not a fanboy!

Yes its reality what you state, but its also a reality that YOU skew towards the negative side of things!

I also see the same reality YOU see, but I skew it more to the positive side of things!

This is me regarding Tesla

This is you

 

1 minute ago, balthazar said:

Sure, some of them are. And if they're willing to spend $42K, or $50K or $55K, more power to 'em.
But how many of the 400K pre-orders will not? Without a doubt, some will balk and back out, those would have been 'deal-broken'. Time will tell... if Tesla does.

- - - - -

Mitsu should fold up operations. When they got caught thrice lying openly about injurious & fatal defects, I thought for sure they'd be forced to leave the U.S. market, but they're hanging around like a lingering fart.

Top part

You are of the glass half empty type and Im of the glass half full type

Bottom part

I agree with everything you said 100%

Especially the lingering fart part!

[balthazar]

25 minutes ago, oldshurst442 said:

SURE  they do! They got the money, they dont agree with it, they sell the stock BACK to Tesla, or just dump it cutting their losses and move on!

But other than the removal of capital, stock holders still don't "approve" future product plans. Stock holding doesn't give an investor access to planning meetings.

[Drew Dowdell]

On 5/1/2017 at 8:26 PM, smk4565 said:

Tesla is an all electric brand and worth more money than GM or Ford.  Not that Mitsubishi would rise to that level.  But they are uncompetitive with anything Toyota or Honda make now, and it would take billions and billions to compete there.  Might as well put their billion dollars into a couple EV's which are the future anyway.

Tesla has higher market cap only because of speculators betting on its future value.... not what the company is generating in revenue or even it's total assets minus total debts.  I like Tesla, I like their cars, and I like electric cars... but market cap is not an accurate measure of a company's worth when so much of it involves speculation.   For example... if we went by your standards of using market cap, United Airlines lost $750 million in worth just for having security beat up an old Doctor.... but Assets minus Debts did not change, sales don't appear to have been affected, and the stock has now bounced back and heading close to a 52 week high.

Market Cap as a measure of a company's worth is as useless as tenths of a second in 0-60 times determining which car is better. 

[A Horse With No Name]

5 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Tesla has higher market cap only because of speculators betting on its future value.... not what the company is generating in revenue or even it's total assets minus total debts.  I like Tesla, I like their cars, and I like electric cars... but market cap is not an accurate measure of a company's worth when so much of it involves speculation.   For example... if we went by your standards of using market cap, United Airlines lost $750 million in worth just for having security beat up an old Doctor.... but Assets minus Debts did not change, sales don't appear to have been affected, and the stock has now bounced back and heading close to a 52 week high.

Market Cap as a measure of a company's worth is as useless as tenths of a second in 0-60 times determining which car is better. 

Long term cash flow is the issue here I think not how innovative the company is or how much we like their cars.

We all like Tucker, and they were a very innovative company, but we see how that worked out for them.  In all fairness Tesla has gotten a lot further along than Tucker ever did.

[oldshurst442]

7 hours ago, balthazar said:

But other than the removal of capital, stock holders still don't "approve" future product plans. Stock holding doesn't give an investor access to planning meetings.

Semantics

You know what I meant by it and how it pertains to Tesla.

When I said that Tesla announced 2 more models in a semi-truck and an urban pick-up truck....taking away  more billions from them either from a lending stand point or from a lack of profit, and consequently prolonging the time in which Tesla would actually be profitable, this announcement  would peeve off investors and hence sell off their shares....

We did not hear that investors are mad and itchy and hence why I say the investors are it in for the long haul.

[oldshurst442]

11 minutes ago, A Horse With No Name said:

Long term cash flow is the issue here I think not how innovative the company is or how much we like their cars.

We all like Tucker, and they were a very innovative company, but we see how that worked out for them.  In all fairness Tesla has gotten a lot further along than Tucker ever did.

Tucker....never got off the ground.

OK...there are conspiracy theories to why that is and it seems like the same conspiracy theories and rpetrators with are at it with Tesla

Put that aside though....

Tesla even if 50% cancel on the Model 3 for it rising to a price tag of 42K....

THAT would still be 190 000 Model 3s (because there has been some cancellations already and I think the number is 380 000) plus the 100 000 Model S and Model X sales.....

That is 290 000 cars sold for next year. While that figure may be less than the 500 000 that Tesla is thinking about, its still a number that surpasses many 100 year old brands! Keep in mind that I dont think 50% ore people will cancel on their pre-orders and let us not forget that Tesla will open up orders again for it!!!

OK....Sorry Drew, I did this post AFTER you said to continue on with Mitsubishi...

So Mitsubishi....

Edited May 3, 2017 by oldshurst442

[A Horse With No Name]

1 hour ago, Drew Dowdell said:

I agree with you on the brand equity thing.... but Nissan did spend the money to buy Mitsu... so they should give Mitsu a purpose in life, which it doesn't have right now. 

Agreed on them needing a purpose, it just seems like sunk costs to me.

1 hour ago, oldshurst442 said:

Tucker....never got off the ground.

OK...there are conspiracy theories to why that is and it seems like the same conspiracy theories and rpetrators with are at it with Tesla

Put that aside though....

Tesla even if 50% cancel on the Model 3 for it rising to a price tag of 42K....

THAT would still be 190 000 Model 3s (because there has been some cancellations already and I think the number is 380 000) plus the 100 000 Model S and Model X sales.....

That is 290 000 cars sold for next year. While that figure may be less than the 500 000 that Tesla is thinking about, its still a number that surpasses many 100 year old brands! Keep in mind that I dont think 50% ore people will cancel on their pre-orders and let us not forget that Tesla will open up orders again for it!!!

OK....Sorry Drew, I did this post AFTER you said to continue on with Mitsubishi...

So Mitsubishi....

If they cannot turn a per unit profit, they can sell 2 million model 3 automobiles and it will not matter.

[oldshurst442]

1 hour ago, A Horse With No Name said:

Agreed on them needing a purpose, it just seems like sunk costs to me.

If they cannot turn a per unit profit, they can sell 2 million model 3 automobiles and it will not matter.

*SIGH*

They are investing in their OWN charging infrastructure.

They are investiong in tow more new models.

They are going to have a successor to the Roadster.

They are still spending billions on research and development.

The investors are aware...Musk is aware...of what is needed to be done...there is a plan in place...yada yada yada...

When the Model 3 finally begins production and deliveries start to happen....Musk said that the spending will be reduced...in the interim...Tesla plans to raise

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-23/tesla-capital-raise-seen-near-as-musk-burns-through-cash-coffers

 

Quote

 

Elon Musk is burning through cash and may need to raise more soon to produce the mass-market electric sedan Tesla Inc. is banking on to reach the mainstream consumer.

A capital raise would provide more cushion to the smallest and youngest publicly held U.S. automaker, which has huge expenditures planned ahead of introducing the Model 3 sedan in July. Tesla burned through cash in the fourth quarter and expects to spend as much as $2.5 billion in the first half of the year before fielding its first mass-market car.

“It’s certainly clear that some kind of capital raise is coming,” David Whiston, an auto analyst at Morningstar Inc., said by phone Thursday. “They might want to do it soon.”

Tesla has been a serial spender under Musk, who’s made it his mission to accelerate the auto industry’s transition to electric transportation. Through the first half of this year, the company will have spent about $10 billion in research and development and capital expenditures since 2014, according to Morgan Stanley. Musk, the chief executive officer, said Wednesday while a cash raise isn’t critical to release the Model 3, it’s probably wise.

 

 

10 billion dollars in R&D since 2014...

2.5 billion in just last years 4rth quarter alone...

It aint ONLY because the Model S is not profitable...the Model S IS profitable...but all that noise surrounding R&D money, re-investing in the company through their battery factory or charging network...the free charging that Tesla gives its users...

 

[Drew Dowdell]

I just want to point out that Tesla is not going to fill all of the reservations for the Model-3 in the first year....it will take about three years for them to churn through the backlog... in the meantime, more of those waiting on reserve could wander off and buy something else instead.