Random Thoughts Thread

[David]

Very Cool Read.

Even though it's rare and valuable, 1-of-15 Ramcharger Max... | Hemmings

[trinacriabob]

It seems like there is a shark attack is making the news on a daily basis ... in Monterey Bay, CA, on Florida's Gulf Side, on Long Island (a lifeguard), and faraway places like South Africa and Sharm-El Sheik, Egypt.  This is horrible.

In oceans and seas where the surf was minimal, I used to swim out to where I couldn't even touch or see the bottom.  I haven't done that in 1 or 2 decades.  The teenage girl in the Florida attack at Keaton Beach was in 5 feet of water.  

Don't do it.  Find another place to swim.  Encourage your loved ones and friends to stay very close to the shoreline.  Just work on your tan or something.

Edited July 3, 2022 by trinacriabob

[smk4565]

4 hours ago, David said:

Look forward to hearing about how the Auction goes Robert. Wishing your sister and you all the best.

If you have not figured it out why we are laughing is that the down numbers mean little to nothing right now as the overall industry is hurting with supply chain issues and as each OEM brings certain manufacturing back in house rather than rely on China or other Asian rim production, we will see things return to more normal situation as is expected.

GM is one of the first that is expected to get back to normal by the start of 2023 as they reacted early on to looking at what would be affected and bring back to North America production of critical components. Ford started following at well and I expect them to both bounce and surpass Asian and European auto companies as they move forward in their change over from ICE to EV.

GM Has 95,000 Cars To Sell, But It Can’t – 24/7 Wall St. (247wallst.com)

This story is a perfect example as to why they had a 15% drop. 

Unless one is in a Must Have to Buy situation, it makes no sense to buy an auto now especially an ICE one that has to have parts added after manufacturing. The big thing about this is that it will push a surplus of auto's back onto the lots to sell of ICE and EVs but then smooth back out to a JIT system once production of the electronics gets going here again in North America.

But Tesla is up 53%, so they obviously aren't being crushed by supply chain since they are mostly vertically integrated.

Whoever can crack the supply chain problem first (or maybe 2nd and 3rd too) and get EV production booming is going to win, the ones that don't will lose, probably get consolidated into another car company as very few actually go out of business.  And that might be GM, it is like a big reset button right now.  There is an estimated 3-4 million units of pent up demand right now, whoever stocks their dealer lots first could get massive market share.  There is very large Chevy dealer near me, they have 3 new vehicles in stock.  The Mercedes dealer across the street has 81.  GM or any other car company can't have dealers with 3 cars in stock, they should have over 100, if they had 300 cars in stock they'd probably sell them in a month given how much demand is out there.  Whoever gets the inventory first wins, and I'd say EV inventory as well, because if you order a Tesla is still about a 6 month wait on average, some models are a 1 year wait, if the rivals had cars in stock you could get today, they could beat Tesla.

Edited July 3, 2022 by smk4565

[trinacriabob]

Wishing all our members a safe and happy Fourth of July. 

It's but a few hours away.

[surreal1272]

19 hours ago, smk4565 said:

But Tesla is up 53%, so they obviously aren't being crushed by supply chain since they are mostly vertically integrated.

You obviously haven't kept up with their recent issues.

https://qz.com/2157289/supply-chain-challenges-finally-caught-up-to-tesla/

[smk4565]

8 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

You obviously haven't kept up with their recent issues.

https://qz.com/2157289/supply-chain-challenges-finally-caught-up-to-tesla/

June 2022 was Tesla's best month for deliveries ever.  They still have a lot of pent up demand, if they can get the Shanghai, Austin and Berlin factories all cranking away, they could put up some massive numbers.

[surreal1272]

10 hours ago, smk4565 said:

June 2022 was Tesla's best month for deliveries ever.  They still have a lot of pent up demand, if they can get the Shanghai, Austin and Berlin factories all cranking away, they could put up some massive numbers.

So just ignore the LITERAL writing on the wall, the threat of layoffs, and the obvious supply chain disruption that is going on RIGHT NOW. Only the past matters here, as far as you're concerned. That makes perfect sense when you don't want to admit that you might be wrong.

Edited July 5, 2022 by surreal1272

[ccap41]

On 7/1/2022 at 5:09 PM, smk4565 said:

2022 Q2 sales volume came out today, GM down 15%, Honda down 50%, Toyota down 22%, Stellantis down 15%, Hyundai-Kia down 19%, BMW down 20%, Nissan down 39%, Mazda down 42% Subaru down 18%.  Ford was up 5%, VW group up 2% so those 2 are treading water, the rest are tanking.

Funny you left Mercedes out as they were down 20.5% in Q1. I can't imagine it'll be a whole lot better in Q2. 

[David]

Very cool to see that the Rivian R1S is finally getting some attention as they ramp up production of this SUV. I find it cool that it can hold 3 children's seats across, far more room than most vehicles.

[David]

Wish GM would get their e-crate motors up and selling. I know the ramp to get production vehicles out is ahead of the performance catalogue, but I would sure love to see what the options are for conversions with e-crate motors.

 

[trinacriabob]

This wasn't a light bulb that just went on.  It's a light bulb that has been burning brighter.

I've come to the conclusion that 75% to 80% of doctors are in it for the money.

[David]

Hope everyone had a good 4th of July celebrating our 246th birthday as a country.

Ribs was the meal at my house. Came out really well I think, fall of the bone juicy.

Pictures start from fresh on the grill, then checked every hour till 3hrs of cooking, then slathered in our homemade BBQ sauce and 15 min later off the grill.

[David]

This is the kind of thing that will sink Tesla faster than anything. Ignoring the racist crap going on in their factories.

Tesla's Big Problem Keeps Growing (msn.com)

Ouch this is not good for GM initially, but if it helps them ramp up other products faster as they work out the kinks in producing the Hummer on the Ultium Platform, it could really benefit them over other companies.

GM is making just 12 electric Hummers a day at its Detroit factory despite a waiting list of 77,000 buyers, report says (msn.com)

[smk4565]

9 hours ago, ccap41 said:

Funny you left Mercedes out as they were down 20.5% in Q1. I can't imagine it'll be a whole lot better in Q2. 

I left them out because they didn't report the numbers yet.

[riviera74]

3 hours ago, trinacriabob said:

This wasn't a light bulb that just went on.  It's a light bulb that has been burning brighter.

I've come to the conclusion that 75% to 80% of doctors are in it for the money.

Only 75-80%?  Why so low?

[trinacriabob]

26 minutes ago, riviera74 said:

Only 75-80%?  Why so low?

I was being generous.  It's probably higher.  One could just look at the college undergrads in pre-health sciences that I knew (not my major or academic unit) and it was apparent then.

It never ceases to amaze me how unprofessional and arrogant many are.  And how it's a sort of an ongoing fraternity between them and the specialists they refer to.

Rather than inserting fingers into orifices to check things out from time to time, a good many of them would benefit from taking out the golf clubs that are stuck so far up their rear ends.

[David]

Celebrated a family members birthday with Surf n Turf dinner tonight.

[surreal1272]

On 7/2/2022 at 6:55 PM, smk4565 said:

Genesis will never make a $200,000 car and never have a collector car or museum car.

So now it’s “Genesis will never make…” a $200K car instead of your earlier “Genesis doesn’t even make a $100K” car? 
 

Which is it? 
 

Maybe the lesson here is to just admit that you were wrong about the $100K part and just move on instead of constantly trying to protect Mercedes like they sign your paycheck every week. 

[Robert Hall]

@Davidall those food pics look delicious.  Makes me hungry.   Alas, I was busy on the 4th and had to settle for a Dairy Queen chili dog on the 4th…

[David]

3 hours ago, Robert Hall said:

@Davidall those food pics look delicious.  Makes me hungry.   Alas, I was busy on the 4th and had to settle for a Dairy Queen chili dog on the 4th…

If ya ever get out to Washington look me up, happy to BBQ some food for you.

[David]

Not for use by Auto EVs, but very cool tech that is being explored for long term storage of power for end use at homes and businesses which could include charging EVs.

Climate change: 'Sand battery' could solve green energy's big problem - BBC News

This is but one of many stories out this week on looking at better ways to store energy, especially when green energy generation produces more than is being used at that time by humans.

[David]

Good first review of the Cadillac LYRIQ.

2023 Cadillac Lyriq First Drive Review: The New American Luxury Songbook (insideevs.com)

[David]

On 7/1/2022 at 3:09 PM, smk4565 said:

2022 Q2 sales volume came out today, GM down 15%, Honda down 50%, Toyota down 22%, Stellantis down 15%, Hyundai-Kia down 19%, BMW down 20%, Nissan down 39%, Mazda down 42% Subaru down 18%.  Ford was up 5%, VW group up 2% so those 2 are treading water, the rest are tanking.

Tesla is expected to be up 53%

GM has sold 20,253 EV's in 2022, Tesla is at 228,700 estimated (final numbers not out).   Tesla is rolling right now, at even half their current growth rate they will be at 1.1 million units a year in the USA in 2026, 2.7 million units in 2030.  I am not saying it will happen, but look at the beating the other guys are taking.  And how long will it take for the legacy OEMs to not have 1 EV in the product line, but 5 or 6 all of which are built in volume and in stock on dealer lots.

Probably the only way the other guys can beat Tesla is to #1 undercut the price, and #2 have rows of EV's sitting on dealer lots, because with a Tesla you are still ordering online and waiting 6 months to get it.    My local Mercedes dealer has 82 cars in stock, but 51 are GLC's and zero are EQS.  If a car company can put 50 EV's on the lot, that is how you beat Tesla.

Not sure where your pulling your numbers, but Ford reported their Monthly June Sales that is outperforming the industry as June Sales showed a 31% increase in sales, not 5%. 

Edit: Adding actual link to the release info: https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2022/07/05/ford-june-sales.html

[smk4565]

11 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

So now it’s “Genesis will never make…” a $200K car instead of your earlier “Genesis doesn’t even make a $100K” car? 
 

Which is it? 
 

Maybe the lesson here is to just admit that you were wrong about the $100K part and just move on instead of constantly trying to protect Mercedes like they sign your paycheck every week. 

They don't make a $100,000 car in the USA, the Asian market cars are more expensive when you do direct conversion of their currency to US dollar.  The Mercedes S500 base price is 188.6 million won in South Korea ($144,500 direct conversion), that's still more than the fully maxed out G90 at 182 million won.   A loaded G90 is $81,775 in the US, not exactly range topper luxury.

6 hours ago, David said:

Not sure where your pulling your numbers, but Ford reported their Monthly June Sales that is outperforming the industry as June Sales showed a 31% increase in sales, not 5%. 

Edit: Adding actual link to the release info: https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2022/07/05/ford-june-sales.html

I believe it was a quarterly number, I got it from a list of all car companies Q2 results.   Ford is down 8% for the year, so probably the early part of Q2 was bad and June was good.

[David]

Very cool about Rivian ramping up production.
Electric truck maker Rivian's stock surges as deliveries triple (nypost.com)

[surreal1272]

2 hours ago, smk4565 said:

They don't make a $100,000 car in the USA, the Asian market cars are more expensive when you do direct conversion of their currency to US dollar.  The Mercedes S500 base price is 188.6 million won in South Korea ($144,500 direct conversion), that's still more than the fully maxed out G90 at 182 million won.   A loaded G90 is $81,775 in the US, not exactly range topper luxury.

You missed the bigger point which was your bar moving yet again. You went one way and as soon as you were presented with a factual counter, you moved the bar and upped the number without regard to geography. I would be more mad that the new kid on the luxury block is getting noticed as much as the Germans as of late, but hey, I'm not the one looking for constant one brand validation just because I happen to own the brand in question.

[David]

Wow, this sucks for Europe.

Anti-speeding tech and 'black box' now mandatory in new EU cars (msn.com)

[David]

Very cool that a second Lithium mine is coming online in Canada and will be sustainable with no diesel or gas emissions. Will use Hydro power for the site and extraction process.

What does sustainable lithium mining look like? - Electrek

Seems CEO Musk, AKA Failure Musk is again attempting to divert attention from his failure to stay focused on Tesla the Auto company as he plays with his new purchase Twitter more and talks about new auto's when he still has not delivered in full productions his electric Semi truck, Cybertruck or Roadster 2.0. Now he thinks he can build a better van for cargo and people moving. 🙄

Elon Musk suggests Tesla will make 'highly configurable Robovan' for people and cargo - Electrek

[David]

Very cool modernized autos with crate motors.

A Performance Pair (theblock.com)

[trinacriabob]

Good morning ...

[Drew Dowdell]

@trinacriabobdo I even want to know why you posted her?

also, I did a thing. I’ll make it its own thread once I get it home

1999 BMW R1100RS

 

this was from @Robert Hall’s brother’s estate 

[Robert Hall]

Glad you were able to buy that bike, @Drew Dowdell…great to finally meet you after knowing you here for like 17-18 years.   Had a good auction today.  Very emotional day for my sister and I.  I have a sense of closure and relief now that it is over.  

[Robert Hall]

For laughs, how about this new decoration for my Jeep.  My sister took a cutting of our Mom’s Rhodedendron (was planted over 50 years ago).  
 

 

[David]

@Robert Hall So happy you and your sister got closure and you had a good day of selling.

What all is left to sell after the day?

[Robert Hall]

1 hour ago, David said:

@Robert Hall So happy you and your sister got closure and you had a good day of selling.

What all is left to sell after the day?

Everything sold I believe, except an old bicycle and a box of misc junk…

 

[David]

22 hours ago, Robert Hall said:

Everything sold I believe, except an old bicycle and a box of misc junk…

 

Did they even auction off the Farm?

Awesome, I am so happy for you and your sister! We'll deserved!

[Robert Hall]

8 hours ago, David said:

Did they even auction off the Farm?

Awesome, I am so happy for you and your sister! We'll deserved!

Yep.  It went in two parcels—-like 27 acres with the house and buildings and 98 acres or so for the rest of the land.  Exceeded the estimates.   
 

[David]

OUCH, another death of a driver by their Tesla running into the back of a parked Walmart Semi.

Feds Investigating Yet Another Fatal Tesla Crash, Again (msn.com)

 

[David]

The More I read and watch videos on the Rivian R1S, the more impressed I am and Tesla is going to be in trouble once they are at full production.

2022 Rivian R1S First Drive Review: An Electric SUV To Rule Them All (insideevs.com)

[ccap41]

I don't think "full production" can touch where Tesla is at right now. They're decades away from legitimately catching Tesla. I hope Rivian the best and I really like what they've made thus far but, they're a loooong ways away from Tesla's production. 

[Drew Dowdell]

3 hours ago, ccap41 said:

I don't think "full production" can touch where Tesla is at right now. They're decades away from legitimately catching Tesla. I hope Rivian the best and I really like what they've made thus far but, they're a loooong ways away from Tesla's production. 

I wouldn't say decades.. .plural. They're already getting ready to start building a second plant.

[ccap41]

7 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

I wouldn't say decades.. .plural. They're already getting ready to start building a second plant.

You think in 19 years or less they will be producing more vehicles than Tesla? Tesla has almost 20 factories globally and all of them have to do with automotive production, someway or another.

Rivian has stated a 2030 goal of 1,000,000 units/yr and that's about what Tesla did last year. If they don't fall on their face, like they already have, and get to that point with Tesla growing 0% in that time, then they can and will do it. I don't see 0% growth from Tesla, but I do see a much more minimized growth as the other OEMs ramp up EV production and new models. 

[Drew Dowdell]

Just now, ccap41 said:

You think in 19 years or less they will be producing more vehicles than Tesla? Tesla has almost 20 factories globally and all of them have to do with automotive production, someway or another.

Rivian has stated a 2030 goal of 1,000,000 units/yr and that's about what Tesla did last year. If they don't fall on their face, like they already have, and get to that point with Tesla growing 0% in that time, then they can and will do it. I don't see 0% growth from Tesla, but I do see a much more minimized growth as the other OEMs ramp up EV production and new models. 

I think Tesla is doing well in the short-term, but long term they are going to significantly level out, possibly even fall.  There are only so many Tesla fanbois to sell to.   I know my HR Director won't be recommending Tesla to anyone, she just finally got hers back over the weekend, and all she does now is talk about how she's worried it is going to brick again.

Rivian has the chance to catch up here not only by accelerating their own production, but also by GM, Ford, and a whole lotta Hyundai/Kia biting into Tesla growth.

[ccap41]

Rivian only needs about 1,000,000 units/yr to catch up. 

I think their products are great and can do it. I just don't think this will be a very quick process. 

[David]

2 hours ago, ccap41 said:

You think in 19 years or less they will be producing more vehicles than Tesla? Tesla has almost 20 factories globally and all of them have to do with automotive production, someway or another.

Rivian has stated a 2030 goal of 1,000,000 units/yr and that's about what Tesla did last year. If they don't fall on their face, like they already have, and get to that point with Tesla growing 0% in that time, then they can and will do it. I don't see 0% growth from Tesla, but I do see a much more minimized growth as the other OEMs ramp up EV production and new models. 

Question, where are the other 15 plants? They have California, Nevada and Texas, Germany and China. 5 total production plants or factories, where are there others? You cannot count their office spaces and the few R&D offices as production or factories.

1 hour ago, ccap41 said:

Rivian only needs about 1,000,000 units/yr to catch up. 

I think their products are great and can do it. I just don't think this will be a very quick process. 

The fact they are not re-inventing the wheel like Musk has done in California will allow Rivian to catch up much faster. I give Tesla 10 years at most before they are hurting from the Legacy OEMs and Rivian and any of the other new startups that survive.

[ccap41]

1 hour ago, David said:

Question, where are the other 15 plants? They have California, Nevada and Texas, Germany and China. 5 total production plants or factories, where are there others? You cannot count their office spaces and the few R&D offices as production or factories.

They manufacture parts for their vehicles, along with parts for their solar lines. 

[Drew Dowdell]

Some of that is a bit of a stretch to call them automotive manufacturing facilities. 

[surreal1272]

It astounds me that the pro-Musk folks tout all these “positives” while ignoring the many negatives and potential pitfalls facing Tesla (potential mass layoffs, routinely at the bottom of every reliability and quality study and survey, and his stupid Twitter feud for starters, all of which will jeopardize any future success). Just wash, rinse, repeat with the same “but Tesla/Musk are (insert random superlative)” nonsense. 

Edited July 12, 2022 by surreal1272

[surreal1272]

54 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Some of that is a bit of a stretch to call them automotive manufacturing facilities. 

It’s a complete fabrication as Tesla has just six paints worldwide for automotive assembly. 

[riviera74]

I question whether there will be 2 million new Tesla buyers/drivers in the next ten years, let alone Rivian with just 1 million in 2031.  But we shall see.  The ICE isn't dead yet, despite high (but falling) gas prices.