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Not very many are going to 'race' towards EVs that cost 2-3 times what IC vehicles cost. $30,000 buys a LOT of fuel, and for years to come.

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2 hours ago, dfelt said:

the global world

??? LOL

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5 minutes ago, ocnblu said:

??? LOL

The earth isn't flat, it's a globe.  And there is a world outside of the US, which many people seem unaware of..actual facts.

Edited by Robert Hall
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1 minute ago, Robert Hall said:

The earth isn't flat, it's a globe.  And there is a world outside of the US, which many people seem unaware of..actual facts.

"Global world" is redundant.

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Never mind...

*SIGH*

my post was stolen by Bob...beat me to it by mere seconds...

Edited by oldshurst442
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7 minutes ago, ocnblu said:

"Global world" is redundant.

One could argue that it isn't though...'world' can be used in non-global contexts. 

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Just now, Robert Hall said:

One could argue

If "one" were Robert Hall, I suppose

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Just now, ocnblu said:

If "one" were Robert Hall, I suppose

Reality is complex, as I like to say. 

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On 11/5/2019 at 7:34 PM, William Maley said:

Basically what he said. I try to be aware of my biases, even wrote some thoughts on it a few years back - https://contradictoryenigmas.tumblr.com/post/154206882939/bias-creep-redux

VERY WELL WRITTEN!!!

We SHOULD embrace our biases and we should ADMIT them when we are discussing things.

I do NOT hold back on my biases. I try to be as open as I possibly can when I speak or post. I put all my cards on the table...some people do not know how to cope with that and they read into more than they should from what I said because of their own biases that they also seem to suppress whether they are aware of their own bias or not. 

I tend to pick up on that right away and put the two opposing biases on display but that causes more riff...

Regarding professionalism to where opinions and "facts"  really influence folk....MONEY is always a factor.

Integrity is a trait that can and does get compromised  when money is involved.  Very few professionals stay...professional.  Its hard.  Circumstances sometimes does not allow for integrity to be upheld and so forth...

But sometimes...humanity is decent and integrity remains strong...

Bias. Its a human necessity. Its how we evolve and survive...

But we have to allow others to have biases and opinions.  But when money is involved, sometimes that bias is money influenced and is not really personal anecdotal opinion, but fake, money influenced business transactions that are passed off as personal, anecdotal advice and opinion...   And integrity is compromised...and fake views on subjects are being passed on and lead people to fake conclusions...

And when we see that kind of bias, we should expose it for the crap that it is and not embrace it... 

We must not be naive to this either...we have a brain, we must use it... 

 

  

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, balthazar said:

Not very many are going to 'race' towards EVs that cost 2-3 times what IC vehicles cost. $30,000 buys a LOT of fuel, and for years to come.

I hear you.  EVs will have to get a lot cheaper in order for them to completely displace ICE cars.  The first automaker that can build an EV and sell it for $20K or less will dominate the market really quickly.  (Ideally $15K).

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1 hour ago, balthazar said:

I don't think they need to be THAT cheap, but certainly they have to come in starting in the high 20s. This $45-90K shit ain't workin.

I think it is working enough to drive interest by those that can afford a new High 20K one when available or they wait for a use EV that is in that price range.

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4 hours ago, dfelt said:

I think it is working enough to drive interest by those that can afford a new High 20K one when available or they wait for a use EV that is in that price range.

And with EV resale values in the BASEMENT, that "should" be easy, if ppl really wanted an EV, that is.  I don't think the "used EV" market is that hot though... fact is, demand is weak, or resale values would be higher.  Can't give 'em away... even a few months old and hella depreciated.

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7 hours ago, dfelt said:

I think it is working enough to drive interest by those that can afford a new High 20K one when available or they wait for a use EV that is in that price range.

You think a $90K EV is 'driving interest' for when the price will come down to $30K??
'Interest' doesn't keep the lights on. And the pricing will NEVER fall that far. Every article out there (I JUST read a blurb on the October UK market) says 'demand is booming', etc etc, and of course even a tiny uptick on a tiny niche results in huge percentage numbers.... this only feeds OEMs to hold/increase pricing, not reduce it. 'Number 1 selling EV is moving at around $50K? Why do WE have to be at $30K?'

A price competitive EV seems permanently out of reach.

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47 minutes ago, balthazar said:

A price competitive EV seems permanently out of reach.

Kia Soul EV

Hyundai Ioniq Electric

Hyundai Kona Electric

Nissan Leaf

Volkswagen e-Golf

All of these are in the low 30s.  You may argue that they still not price competitive with comparable ICE models.  However, if to take into account energy savings and maintenance savings, I think they will be more than competitive.

I think many more will come in the next few years.  Like it or not it is obvious that giants like GM, Ford, VW and Toyota started seriously investing into EV vehicles.  They are coming.

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54 minutes ago, ykX said:

Kia Soul EV

Hyundai Ioniq Electric

Hyundai Kona Electric

Nissan Leaf

Volkswagen e-Golf

All of these are in the low 30s.  You may argue that they still not price competitive with comparable ICE models.  However, if to take into account energy savings and maintenance savings, I think they will be more than competitive.

I think many more will come in the next few years.  Like it or not it is obvious that giants like GM, Ford, VW and Toyota started seriously investing into EV vehicles.  They are coming.

The e-Golf is a joke.. it's a compliance car like the Focus Electric was..

This makes be really wonder what Ford's new Mach-E will be priced at. I think I'd heard like 340 miles of range..?  Rumor is 40k... but that seems optimistic or a very basic trim with a smaller battery. 

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36 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

The e-Golf is a joke

125 miles is not great but more than enough for a city use or people having average commute (which is 15-20 miles one way)

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1 hour ago, ykX said:

Kia Soul EV

Hyundai Ioniq Electric

Hyundai Kona Electric

Nissan Leaf

Volkswagen e-Golf

All of these are in the low 30s.  You may argue that they still not price competitive with comparable ICE models.  However, if to take into account energy savings and maintenance savings, I think they will be more than competitive.

Low 30’s is fine; they need to be within $2500 to be price competitive (tho Im seeing $38.4K for the Kona). I’ll certainly give them a buffer for not having to buy fuel.

So what’s holding the sales of these down so hard? Ioniq moved only 391 thru Sept, Soul moved 78 and Kona 97! E-golf: 3596, Leaf: 9111. Still pretty poor numbers, what’s a corolla at in the same period, or a Malibu?? 

Even if pricing is competitive, buyers just don’t want them. And don’t for a second think any of these in this price range are making a profit; they’re all subsidized by IC volume/profit. This is exactly why the EV stand-alones are either making no money, or closing down- Faraday just declared BK, and both Apple & Dyson pulled out. 

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@balthazar 

So if EVs have no future, why Ford, GM, VW, Toyota increased their development of EVs.  There is a bunch of known models coming soon from them and there is more still in development?  Just to be fashionable?

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23 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Low 30’s is fine; they need to be within $2500 to be price competitive (tho Im seeing $38.4K for the Kona). I’ll certainly give them a buffer for not having to buy fuel.

So what’s holding the sales of these down so hard? Ioniq moved only 391 thru Sept, Soul moved 78 and Kona 97! E-golf: 3596, Leaf: 9111. Still pretty poor numbers, what’s a corolla at in the same period, or a Malibu?? 

Even if pricing is competitive, buyers just don’t want them. And don’t for a second think any of these in this price range are making a profit; they’re all subsidized by IC volume/profit. This is exactly why the EV stand-alones are either making no money, or closing down- Faraday just declared BK, and both Apple & Dyson pulled out. 

Customer preference have changed we all know this, Once Trucks / SUVs are out, I think it will increase the move to EVs. I honestly think Rivian will be a hit and once Ford starts selling their Rivian built F150, that it will go over very well.

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31 minutes ago, ykX said:

125 miles is not great but more than enough for a city use or people having average commute (which is 15-20 miles one way)

That's much improved from the original 70-90 miles or range quoted by VW. 

It would take ten or more years to pay itself off, even getting the full $7500 tax credit. God forbid you don't. 

" "The EPA reckons the cost of electricity at 13 cents per kWh. So a full charge on the 24.2-kWh battery is $3.15 and gets you 83 [miles of driving range]. The cost per mile is thus 3.8 cents. If you take a Jetta that gets 33 mpg combined and the EPA's cost of $2.01 for regular gasoline, then that comes to 6.1 cents per mile."

Gas prices these days are higher in many places, which would increase savings, but for me VW's formula worked out to $569.94 in electricity for my year in an e-Golf versus the $913.30 I would have paid for gas in a comparable car."

*That was at 14,972 miles in one year.*

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49 minutes ago, ykX said:

@balthazar 

So if EVs have no future, why Ford, GM, VW, Toyota increased their development of EVs.  There is a bunch of known models coming soon from them and there is more still in development?  Just to be fashionable?

I never said they have no future. There are already like 40 EV / PHEVs out now... they just about all have really poor volume. Yes;  the top 5 or so do OK in volume, but the rest sell at Ferrari volume (or worse). Share will likely continue to creep up, but there’s no ‘explosion’ of volume around the corner. We have an established track record showing that handily.

I can respect individual’s enthusiasm for the EV, and I think some aspects of owning one are appealing. But people need to embrace the reality of the market and discard the wide-eyed wonder of concept unveilings and futurist media pieces.

Edited by balthazar
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33 minutes ago, dfelt said:

Once Trucks / SUVs are out, I think it will increase the move to EVs. I honestly think Rivian will be a hit and once Ford starts selling their Rivian built F150, that it will go over very well.

How many $75K F-150s does Ford sell?

I recently read a plethora of commentary slamming the Rivian front end design. Too ‘soft’. We’ll see what the take rate is after the ‘me first!s’ get their orders filled and things settle into more normal patterns. Frankly, with all the griping on Ford/Chevy/GMC/Dodge truck pricing, I don’t have high hopes that masses will swallow $75K without any backlash.

How much has the now-online Model 3 siphoned off the Model S’s volumes??

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Absolutely agree with you @balthazar.  I don't believe there will be sudden explosion of EV vehicles, they need to make more economical sense.  However, the trend is there.  More and more I see EVs on the road.  Just recently there was a statistics published that in US more EVs are sold than cars with manual transmission.   It is not a huge indication, but it is a direction market is slowly going. 

Edited by ykX

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