Alternative Fuels & Propulsion RANDOM

[A Horse With No Name]

ICE in the EV thread...

 

[David]

Seems the EV pickup truck market will NOT have one from Nikola. According to GM, they will manufacture and supply Hydrogen fuel cell systems for Nikola Semi Class 7 & 8 trucks but will not take a stake in the company nor help with manufacturing the Badger pickup truck. Sad as I really liked the looks of the Badger Pickup truck.

General Motors Signs MoU with Nikola to Supply Hydrotec Fuel Cell Systems (gm.com)

GM cancels deal to build Nikola (NKLA) electric-hydrogen pickup truck after many controversies - Electrek

[Drew Dowdell]

On 11/26/2020 at 11:46 AM, balthazar said:

Constantly evolving 'technology' is supposedly something everyone is supposed to unconditionally love and embrace, but the fact of the matter is, 1. it's a personal preference, and 2. most consumer technology is merely marketing.

A smart phone was a huge advance over a dumb phone. An iPhone 12 is 102% of a iPhone 10. Your needs remain fairly static; what worked for you in 2015 still works in 2020 [feel free to pull those numbers apart another 10 years].

I agree with most of this, however, there are some people who are against progress of any sort and just hate it to hate it.  They hold the view that "It won't work for me today, so that means it will NEVER WORK FOR ANYONE EVER!".

Tesla was a game changer for EVs. It made EVs substantially more accessible to more people, not just in cost, but in range.  Before Tesla, most EVs topped out at 120 miles or 150miles max. It doesn't matter if you were Jeff Bezos, that is a deficit of utility that those EVs could not overcome. Telsa coming out with 250, 300, 350, 400 mile ranges meant that suddenly the vehicle was usable to 99.9% of trips with no range anxiety.  Yes they are still more expensive than regular cars, but now you don't have to be Jeff Bezos to own one.

EV development will largely be incremental from here on out.  There is really no need for a range beyond 400 miles in a standard passenger, so rather than adding additional range, manufacturers are going to start to work on things like charging speed and battery size... neither of which will generate much in terms of headlines. 

So, you're correct that the next Tesla with a 350 mile range is going to be 105% of the current one, that means the 30 minute charge from 0%-80% will take 28 minutes instead of 30, but also the battery will weigh less and the car will improve its regen efficiency.  Battery cost will also stay flat or go down making it more accessible to more people.

So, it's really only a matter of time before EVs become ubiquitous even if you don't personally own one. 

[Drew Dowdell]

A lot of the Anti-EVers like to say "Well, your EV is powered by coal! Coal is what is used to generate your electricity!"

Well... that's become less and less true. It's time to start retiring that line.

According to the Energy Information Administration - U.S. Renewable Sources Generate More Electricity Than Either Coal or Nuclear and Begin to Close the Gap with Natural Gas

 

For the period January - September, solar-generated electricity – including distributed solar - expanded by 22.1% (compared to the same period in 2019) and provided more than  3.4% of the nation’s total. Wind grew by 12.2% and accounted for 7.9% of total generation. Combined, net electrical generation by wind and solar was 15.0% greater than a year ago.   

Electrical generation by geothermal energy and hydropower also increased - by 3.3% and 0.1% respectively - while that from biomass fell by 2.1%. Together with wind and solar, renewables provided 20.5% of total electrical output - up from 18.4% a year earlier.    

Moreover, renewables' share of U.S. electrical generation has eclipsed that of nuclear power (19.4%) and coal (18.6%).  Renewables produced almost a tenth  (i.e., 9.8%) more electricity than coal through September 2020. In fact, electrical generation by coal was 23.5% lower than a year earlier. In addition, renewable energy sources produced 5.2% more electricity than did nuclear power whose output fell 1.8% during the same nine-month period. 

 

[balthazar]

16 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

They hold the view that "It won't work for me today, so that means it will NEVER WORK FOR ANYONE EVER!".

I don't -and can't- really worry about the fringe element. They're free to hold that viewpoint, but it doesn't have any weight to it in the grand scheme. Via my observation; the folk who hold a position like that are FAR FAR outnumbered by those who will stand in line for 12 hours to buy a 102% phone while they have a 12-month old phone in their pocket. That contingency drives product obsolescence.

There have been a LOT of offbeat EVs over the years; some expensive, some cheap. The issue that Tesla addressed is their products are palatable/comparable in terms of it being a 'real car'... but they're still too expensive. The range is good to very good.

I believe EVs will be over 50% of new vehicle sales... but I don't have much faith it'll be within my lifetime. If pricing isn't competitive, buyers will extend their current vehicle's service life / buy pre-owned (some of which may well be EVs, and new car sales overall will tail off. Some folk just aren't going to be interested in one / prefer gas-fueled vehicles. 

16 million BEV sales per year within 20 years? The pace of change here is too glacial.

8 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Well... that's become less and less true. It's time to start retiring that line.

You aren't going to 'retire a truth' with 11%.

Edited November 30, 2020 by balthazar

[A Horse With No Name]

Tesla is more than just Electric...interesting tech...

 

[David]

Seems the official Mustang Mach E EPA numbers are out and they run from 211 miles to 300 miles depending on model and battery pack.

Ford Mustang Mach-E has 211 to 300 miles of range, depending on model | Autoblog

 

[A Horse With No Name]

1 minute ago, David said:

Seems the official Mustang Mach E EPA numbers are out and they run from 211 miles to 300 miles depending on model and battery pack.

Ford Mustang Mach-E has 211 to 300 miles of range, depending on model | Autoblog

 

Plus its not a bad looking car...

Interesting....also not a bad looking car. 

[Drew Dowdell]

5 minutes ago, David said:

Seems the official Mustang Mach E EPA numbers are out and they run from 211 miles to 300 miles depending on model and battery pack.

Ford Mustang Mach-E has 211 to 300 miles of range, depending on model | Autoblog

 

I started looking at these with an eye on 4-5 years down to road to replace the Chrysler 300C (Yes, I'm aware I just bought it and I'm aware I have a problem).

But the interiors are terribly blah.... why can't we get an EV with a decent interior?!

Right now the Defender and Rivian R1S are tops on the list.  I did go test drive a Defender with my best friend on Friday. 

[David]

OUCH, almost crashes a Tycan during a paid by Porsche test run. cool pics, but also a video of his near crash when attempting to drift the Porsche before they set the world record.

How I Nearly Crashed A $100,000 Porsche Taycan Into A Wall (jalopnik.com)

[David]

3 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

I started looking at these with an eye on 4-5 years down to road to replace the Chrysler 300C (Yes, I'm aware I just bought it and I'm aware I have a problem).

But the interiors are terribly blah.... why can't we get an EV with a decent interior?!

Right now the Defender and Rivian R1S are tops on the list.  I did go test drive a Defender with my best friend on Friday. 

I would agree that between these two interiors, I would take..........................................................................................

Mustang Mach E interior

Rivian R1S Adventure Package interior

Rivian for the Win!!!

[Robert Hall]

I like that Rivian has a range of color choices available for their interiors as far as I can tell...I looked the Mach-e site, and don't see anything other than black and despair gray...boring weak sauce.

I'm surprised there hasn't been an Lincoln EV announced..I'm sure Lincoln will have more colorful interiors...

Edited November 30, 2020 by Robert Hall

[balthazar]

39 minutes ago, Robert Hall said:

I like that Rivian has a range of color choices available for their interiors as far as I can tell...

There's just 3: black, white & green. Have to have a black, so your "range" is 2 colors.
But I guess relatively-speaking; you're not wrong.

[Robert Hall]

2 minutes ago, balthazar said:

There's just 3: black, white & green. Have to have a black, so your "range" is 2 colors.
But I guess relatively-speaking; you're not wrong.

A small range.  I gravitated to the green, didn’t count the variations. They need a red, brown and a tan of some sort.  I love the baseball glove shade of tan Audi, Jeep and others have used in the past. 

[A Horse With No Name]

4 hours ago, Robert Hall said:

I like that Rivian has a range of color choices available for their interiors as far as I can tell...I looked the Mach-e site, and don't see anything other than black and despair gray...boring weak sauce.

I'm surprised there hasn't been an Lincoln EV announced..I'm sure Lincoln will have more colorful interiors...

Let them get the Mach E going. Market does not have room for sixty EVs all at once.

4 hours ago, David said:

I would agree that between these two interiors, I would take..........................................................................................

Mustang Mach E interior

Rivian R1S Adventure Package interior

Rivian for the Win!!!

Rivian is also like thirty grand more money

[balthazar]

8 hours ago, A Horse With No Name said:

Interesting....also not a bad looking car. 

[watches Taycan video] - surprisingly noisy / not at all "silent".

[David]

23 minutes ago, balthazar said:

[watches Taycan video] - surprisingly noisy / not at all "silent".

I would agree that it can be silent and I wonder if people will figure a way to turn off the artificial Porsche sound. Not a fan of it at all.

[balthazar]

Pretty sure that’s merely tire / wind noise, just like all IC vehicles make at speed (I’m ignoring the golf cart-esque electric whine, audible both inside & outside). I’ve never read anything that states the artificial car noise is engaged at speeds over around 20, on ANY brand.

Edited December 1, 2020 by balthazar

[ocnblu]

12 hours ago, Robert Hall said:

I'm surprised there hasn't been an Lincoln EV announced..I'm sure Lincoln will have more colorful interiors...

Well there WAS one announced, the stillborn Rivian joint venture that fell through.

[ocnblu]

[A Horse With No Name]

1 hour ago, ocnblu said:

Well there WAS one announced, the stillborn Rivian joint venture that fell through.

I think Ford still has a significant financial stake in Rivian though. 

[A Horse With No Name]

Nice order for some Ford EV vans...Change is coming...

https://fordauthority.com/2020/11/ford-receives-order-for-151-transit-phev-vans-from-uk-company-sky/

 

[David]

3 hours ago, ocnblu said:

Well there WAS one announced, the stillborn Rivian joint venture that fell through.

And Lincoln has 3 Hybrids now when they were looking at the 1 EV that has been postponed, not canceled.

Lincoln® Luxury Hybrid Electric Vehicles | Performance With Efficiency

 

[A Horse With No Name]

3 minutes ago, David said:

And Lincoln has 3 Hybrids now when they were looking at the 1 EV that has been postponed, not canceled.

Lincoln® Luxury Hybrid Electric Vehicles | Performance With Efficiency

 

Yeah, amazing how hybrids were never going to become mainstream, until they did. Toyota Can't keep RAV 4 Prime in stock. 

....and yes I know I post a lot of videos...but watch this. Technology marches on, regardless of how we feel about it. cars keep getting safer, more efficient, better in so many ways....environmentally cleaner. 

 

Edited December 1, 2020 by A Horse With No Name

[A Horse With No Name]

Interesting Design thoughts...

 

[David]

Good video comparing Ford Mach E to Tesla Model Y and it seems the Mach E is just about equal in performance to the Mustang GT-500.

2021 Ford Mustang Mach-E GT Performance Edition announced | Autoblog

 

[A Horse With No Name]

13 minutes ago, David said:

Good video comparing Ford Mach E to Tesla Model Y and it seems the Mach E is just about equal in performance to the Mustang GT-500.

2021 Ford Mustang Mach-E GT Performance Edition announced | Autoblog

 

Since this will have high intial depreciation, I am thinking this might be a driveway mate for the Ranger in 3 or 4 years. CPO would be the way to go. 

I do think the performance of this will win some people over, and I am warming up to the looks. 

[balthazar]

More 'uh-oh'. 
Might go toward explaining the police car EV / IC comparison showing EVs with much higher maintenance costs.  Buyer beware :

 

https://autos.yahoo.com/electric-cars-problems-latest-consumer-213700323.html

Edited December 1, 2020 by balthazar

[David]

2 minutes ago, balthazar said:

More 'uh-oh'. 
Might go toward explaining the police car EV / IC comparison showing EVs with much higher maintenance costs.  Buyer beware :

Still does not deter me from EVs being the future. I do believe that the electronics and coding is a new world for the OEMs to deal with and will have their normal bugs.

I am hoping that Rivian and Hummer by GMC can come out at a much higher quality level when released. I am excited for the Rivian auto's to start getting delivered next Summer and hearing what people think of their new Truck.

[David]

Seems Tesla now with their crazy stock value is open to discussions on merging with other auto companies. 🤔

Let the crazy stories begin on who would be merger candidates.

Elon Musk: Tesla (TSLA) is open to merging with automakers - Electrek

For the most conservative of states on the west coast, Oregon continues to surprise me in moving forward as they build out massive 5 Megawatt rapid chargers for semi trucks. This is supposedly to help Daimler support their customers who are buying the eCascade electric semi truck. 200 miles of recharge in 80 min.

Portland and Daimler team up for 5MW electric semi public charging 'Island' - Electrek

 

[A Horse With No Name]

13 hours ago, David said:

Seems Tesla now with their crazy stock value is open to discussions on merging with other auto companies. 🤔

Let the crazy stories begin on who would be merger candidates.

Elon Musk: Tesla (TSLA) is open to merging with automakers - Electrek

For the most conservative of states on the west coast, Oregon continues to surprise me in moving forward as they build out massive 5 Megawatt rapid chargers for semi trucks. This is supposedly to help Daimler support their customers who are buying the eCascade electric semi truck. 200 miles of recharge in 80 min.

Portland and Daimler team up for 5MW electric semi public charging 'Island' - Electrek

 

This would solve some of their production nightmares. 

Crazy that they are worth ten times what Ford is worth in terms of market value. 

Edited December 2, 2020 by A Horse With No Name

[A Horse With No Name]

VW EV to be built at a Ford plant in Europe...

 

https://fordauthority.com/2020/12/vw-based-ford-ev-to-reportedly-be-built-at-ford-cologne-plant/

[A Horse With No Name]

Worthwhile video on how Tesla may change the Trucking industry. I think commercial vehicles will lead the way for EV. 

 

His words about autonomy and self driving trucks are well placed. 

[A Horse With No Name]

Interestingly, KTM has electric bikes available for sale at a local dealer. 

https://ktmwheelsports.com/Motorcycles-KTM-Freeride-E-XC-2021-Reynoldsburg-OH-455d80aa-c1de-4133-bbf8-ac7e001a4467G

[balthazar]

16 hours ago, David said:

I do believe that the electronics and coding is a new world for the OEMs to deal with and will have their normal bugs.

It's not new; coding & electronics in autos have been around for 40 years.  Yes; there will always be issues with vehicles, and more & more complex (and some would argue; unnecessary) electronics will keep that fire burning... forever.

[A Horse With No Name]

3 minutes ago, balthazar said:

It's not new; coding & electronics in autos have been around for 40 years.  Yes; there will always be issues with vehicles, and more & more complex (and some would argue; unnecessary) electronics will keep that fire burning... forever.

It is a never ending battle. I remember when I started driving, right about 1980/81...just when engine control computers and eelctronics started becoming widespread. People never thought we would get a grip on control software for ICE motors. Now, people want electronic controls. I am toying with the idea of getting a motorcycle....a retro bike with modern electronic fuel injection would be much simpler to maintain that a carb bike. 

Time moves on...

[A Horse With No Name]

 

[A Horse With No Name]

Tesla factory progress in Germany

 

[balthazar]

>>”Is a zero emission transition possible by 2030”<<
Not possible. MAYBE by 2050.

Understand your industry.

[A Horse With No Name]

7 minutes ago, balthazar said:

>>”Is a zero emission transition possible by 2030”<<
Not possible. MAYBE by 2050.

Understand your industry.

Moving that way in 2030, there by 2050...?

[David]

3 hours ago, balthazar said:

It's not new; coding & electronics in autos have been around for 40 years.  Yes; there will always be issues with vehicles, and more & more complex (and some would argue; unnecessary) electronics will keep that fire burning... forever.

I think you miss understand me. Yes electronics and controls have been around since the 70's. The 70's, 80's and even 90's are very basic simple electronic controls. Starting in 2000 and since then, we have seen actual computers take over larger and larger management of ICE auto's and with Tesla leadership, we saw a rapid change away from basic controllers to full fledge computers that have in depth coding and encryption to the point that GM rolled out a single solid Terabyte system for their auto's starting with Cadillac. Ford is now doing it as is everyone else trying to catch up. You see thousands of new job openings at all Auto companies and these are for true computer developers. Not just basic electrical engineers or mechanical engineers which are still very much needed. The future as we move forward with EVs will incorporate secure, encrypted locked down computer operating systems.

[A Horse With No Name]

Thoughtful discussion, the mention the need for Batteries and battery technology....they point out that we spend more on Potato chips than we do on battery technology in the USA...more investment is needed....

 

[ocnblu]

4 hours ago, A Horse With No Name said:

more investment is needed....

If it were wanted, it would be spent

[surreal1272]

On 12/1/2020 at 5:17 AM, ocnblu said:

Well there WAS one announced, the stillborn Rivian joint venture that fell through.

Which was always doomed because why would GM invest in another company's pickup when they have their own plans for their models. Meanwhile, more American jobs, this time in Arizona where it's sorely needed.

 https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/energy/2020/12/01/lucid-motors-factory-az-completed-manufacturing-begin-2021/6407567002/

[balthazar]

^ “10’s of thousands” of a $160K sedan???

Ooookkkkaaaayyyyyy!!!

Tesla sold like 14K Model S’s at $90K last year, and undoubtedly less this year... and NEXT year. 
 

The Lucid jobs will be there... IF the volume is there. Pretty monstrous question.

[A Horse With No Name]

2 hours ago, ocnblu said:

If it were wanted, it would be spent

It actually is being spent.

[daves87rs]

6 hours ago, balthazar said:

^ “10’s of thousands” of a $160K sedan???

Ooookkkkaaaayyyyyy!!!

Tesla sold like 14K Model S’s at $90K last year, and undoubtedly less this year... and NEXT year. 
 

The Lucid jobs will be there... IF the volume is there. Pretty monstrous question.

Not getting why all the pricey ones right now either....

[ocnblu]

8 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

why would GM invest

I was answering a question about a LINCOLN EV that Moltar posed.  Lincoln is a brand of the Ford Motor Company, not General Motors.

7 hours ago, A Horse With No Name said:

It actually is being spent.

Well... YOU said "more investment is needed", now you're saying it's not needed?  Confused here.

[surreal1272]

3 hours ago, ocnblu said:

I was answering a question about a LINCOLN EV that Moltar posed.  Lincoln is a brand of the Ford Motor Company, not General Motors.

Well... YOU said "more investment is needed", now you're saying it's not needed?  Confused here.

Then I had a dyslexic moment. Got Rivian crossed with Nikola. Sure me. It would probably help if you’d stop cherry picking a piece of someone’s comment so as to remove all doubt as to what you speak. That’s a tactic reserved for the news, not such a cerebral person as yourself. Be better.

[David]

GM DID Look at investing in Rivian but they wanted Rivian to themselves and wanted Rivian to dump Ford and Amazon which I do not agree with. Rivian CEO is wanting the tech to many companies and so GM choose to stick with their own platform.

It will be interesting to see which way Ford goes as they will have two platforms, Rivian for a Truck and possibly future SUV and then the Mach E platform. 

Exciting times we live in.