Tesla, Doomed to Failure? Bob Lutz thinks so!

[David]

Found this great write up by Bob Lutz Industry auto Czar who thinks Tesla is Doomed and he gives some damn straight points to back his editorial up.

 

1) Distribution, Factory car shops are very expensive and Elen Musks Factory sales shop experience at Porsche ate through millions. So far this is not a sustainable model for auto's.

2) Once OEM existing auto companies get serious about long distant EV's they will eat up Tesla. Bolt is expected to be the first warning shot.

3) Cheap gas is not helping Tesla.

4) Auto companies who invested in Tesla did so to get R&D done without losing billions. Now many have left Tesla to go to work for the bigger auto companies like Toyota, GM, Ford, etc.

 

Bob says he likes Elon and knows history is full of Great Products run by Brilliant people that died.

 

Full Story Here!

 

[Drew Dowdell]

1. Tesla will have to address the franchise model eventually, but that doesn't make Tesla unsustainable.

2. The Bolt is only a warning shot if there is a sleek, sexy, Cadillac EV3 followup.  The Bolt and the Model-S are not in the same segment.  The Bolt is a LEAF killer, not a Model-S killer.

3. The people buying Teslas aren't doing it to save $50 a week on gas.  This is a straw-man

4. How does this hurt Tesla?

[ocnblu]

Bob Lutz is like a god to a lot of people because of his factual resume, built over many decades.  I would kneel in his presence.

[David]

1. Tesla will have to address the franchise model eventually, but that doesn't make Tesla unsustainable.

2. The Bolt is only a warning shot if there is a sleek, sexy, Cadillac EV3 followup.  The Bolt and the Model-S are not in the same segment.  The Bolt is a LEAF killer, not a Model-S killer.

3. The people buying Teslas aren't doing it to save $50 a week on gas.  This is a straw-man

4. How does this hurt Tesla?

 

1) Very true, but Tesla for now has decided to buck the current trend, so this is going to be interesting if he can make the 2nd attempt work or not.

2) Yes the Bolt is a Leaf killer but also does zero in on Tesla and their cheap version they have always talked about. This should be noticeable as they push to have more EVs on public roads.

3) Agreed, I thought it was interesting to see him mention cheap gas.

4) I can only think that he sees this as a brain drain on the company but a positive for the rest of the auto industry. After all we have heard of plenty of Tesla engineers going to work at Google, Apple and even the rebirth of Fisker and especially GM on their new EV programs.

[Drew Dowdell]

The Telsa Model 3 is more of an Electric 3-Series killer.

Telsa has no problem attracting talent, and Tesla has pulled away Google and Apple engineers just as much as those two pulling from Tesla.

 

The guys that hacked those Jeep Cherokees got hired by Tesla to help make the connected cars more secure. 

[FAPTurbo]

I'm amazed people pay money for Lutz's insights, when they can freely obtain ideas of similar worth at any conveniently located rest home.  

[Drew Dowdell]

I'm amazed people pay money for Lutz's insights, when they can freely obtain ideas of similar worth at any conveniently located rest home.  

 

The thing is, while Lutz could be counted on to get engineers to do the right thing in a typical car, the market is quickly leaving him behind.  He'd be the man behind the development of the world's greatest flip phone and doesn't understand what all this Apple fad is about. 

[Guest Wings4Life(BANNED)]

With thermal efficiencies targeting 45% for future engines, combined with better battery technologies and control systems…..hybrids and PHEV are going to proliferate faster than BEV.  Hybrids today are around 40-50 mpg, but in the short term, 60mpg will be the norm, with 80mpg longer term.  And PHEV will benefit as well. 

 

BEV will simply not advance fast enough to close that advantage gap over hybrids, and they will never have the infrastructure advantage. 

 

All one has to do is the math to realize that 80mpg with $2 gas, equates to very little cost and consumption, rendering the severely restricted BEV option as foolish.

 

And I can’t wait until that smug Musk can be put in his place, as well as all the weenies who think is so progressive and a God.

[regfootball]

the key thing lutz hit on here was the intense amount of capital required to design and manufacture vehicles, and to have the facility sell and service them.

 

Some posters on facebook pointed out the obvious; once you get BMW and Mercedes equivalents to Tesla in the market, who buys the Tesla?

 

Tesla hasn't figured out how to mainstream the vehicle its building and at some point if they don't have volume they just remain the kit car builders they are.  They will find out (like what CR is suggesting) that it's not all about software and electrics.  There are a whole slew of hard manufacturing issues with cars and servicing them that Tesla isn't capable of handling.  They think they can service a car with a software flash and that just ain't true.  It's the broken door handles and faulty climate controls etc. that create the needs for huge service and parts departments etc.

[David]

 

I'm amazed people pay money for Lutz's insights, when they can freely obtain ideas of similar worth at any conveniently located rest home.  

 

The thing is, while Lutz could be counted on to get engineers to do the right thing in a typical car, the market is quickly leaving him behind.  He'd be the man behind the development of the world's greatest flip phone and doesn't understand what all this Apple fad is about. 

 

Guess that does make me officially old as I have yet to figure out the apple fad. The product is over priced, the design is for small hands only and the interface is a messed up jumble of Icons that does not communicate to me what it is supposed to do.

 

On the other hand I am young and bleeding edge with my Samsung Note, Linux and windows machines that make sense to me and the world of Scale Out Software based Storage like EMC ScaleIO and Isilon.

 

Nerd is still alive in me, let me think and use my brain, no thank you to the apple interface.

[David]

the key thing lutz hit on here was the intense amount of capital required to design and manufacture vehicles, and to have the facility sell and service them.

 

Some posters on facebook pointed out the obvious; once you get BMW and Mercedes equivalents to Tesla in the market, who buys the Tesla?

 

Tesla hasn't figured out how to mainstream the vehicle its building and at some point if they don't have volume they just remain the kit car builders they are.  They will find out (like what CR is suggesting) that it's not all about software and electrics.  There are a whole slew of hard manufacturing issues with cars and servicing them that Tesla isn't capable of handling.  They think they can service a car with a software flash and that just ain't true.  It's the broken door handles and faulty climate controls etc. that create the needs for huge service and parts departments etc.

Very true, If Cadillac had the balls to do this right, they would take and put in one of the readily available 500+hp and over 700lbs of Torque electric engines with a slew of 400Ah battery cells into the bottom of the Escalade and have a 300 to 400 mile range Luxury SUV that people would line up to buy and spend money on and it would Hurt Tesla.

 

 

This would do nicely, as a starting point for an EV Escalade. 420HP, 560 Lbs of Torque. with awd, this would move.

[hyperv6]

Here read this as it shows more media people are now realizing the emperor Elon has no clothes.

http://mashable.com/2015/10/28/tesla-hype/#eX4T8PwSxgqR

Many will have to come up with new excuses to counter the truth.

[Drew Dowdell]

Here read this as it shows more media people are now realizing the emperor Elon has no clothes.

http://mashable.com/2015/10/28/tesla-hype/#eX4T8PwSxgqR

Many will have to come up with new excuses to counter the truth.

 

I didn't know Nick had moved over to Mashable,  I'll see him next month in LA I expect.

 

I like Nick, but some of the thing he mentions in that article are simply F.U.D.

 

1.

"Tesla also sent out letters this summer to its most frequent Supercharger users asking them to limit their usage. Tesla claims it asked owners to limit usage in order to improve the ownership experience for all Tesla drivers."

 

The reason Tesla sent out those letters is because there are people who are abusing the Supercharger stations. It has little to do with reducing their energy bills as most Supercharger stations are off-set with solar generation anyway.  People were leaving their cars charging at the supercharger station to charge, and NOT charging at home.  Keep in mind that Tesla can see the data from the cars, and if they see a car that never charges when at its home address and always charges at a supercharger, that's abusing the system.  Some stations in California had lines forming for charging because people weren't moving their cars when done.  It's an asshole move at a busy gas station and it's an asshole move at a supercharger station too.

 

2.

The P90D with Ludicrous mode, for example, while neat, doesn't further the brand or EVs as a whole. Instead of adding another electric motor to the car, thereby increasing performance, Tesla could have spent those R&D funds to increase range or address known issues, like reliability.

 

This one Mike (Z-06 here) and I found out about last Detroit talking to the Tesla people.... I thought this was fairly common knowledge. The D cars are just test beds for powertrain development of future vehicles.  The AWD availability? That was for the Model X. The lower power front motor in the P85D?  Every single P85D is a powertrain mule for the Model 3.  The ability to blend power front to back using that smaller motor?  You heard it here first I guess... there will be a Telsa Model 3D.

 

3. 

Swapping batteries sounds great... if Telsa actually offered it to more than a few owners.

The Gigafactory isn't done yet. I'll give you that Elon has a problem sticking to timelines, but lets not count this one as a lie or hype just yet. Without the Gigafactory, there is no supply to do the battery swap program in any usable volume.

 

4.

 

[snip] Summary: The Model X has excessively expensive and outlandish features.

 

Yes it does, and they're charging for it.   Honestly, I think if there is a downfall to Tesla, this fault will be it:  Spending lots of money on developing far out there features that even the most dedicated, wealthy, future adopter would hedge on...  Biodefense? Falcon wing doors that required special sensors and lots of extra development?   Had Tesla stuck to just normal doors and made a normal luxury SUV with otherwise normal for the class features, it would have come in about $30k cheaper. 

[El Kabong]

Like Lutz, I like Elon Musk, in an anti-heroic kind of way. He can be a jerk, but we all cheer for Tony Stark in the movies too, right?

And unlike some, I think that Lutz is scary accurate in his assessment of the situation, both from a financial and personality perspective: Tesla has succeeded to this point largely on the backs of people who are bound and determined to do things differently. That, and attracting like-minded clientele has been their saving grace to this point.

But with the Bolt, GM has made a pretty strong move to keep Tesla shut out of the lower end of the market, and this will hurt them eventually. The wild card here is Elon Musk: how much of his money and himself will he drive into his project before he calls it a day?

Regardless of the outcome, he will be regarded as the greatest automotive outsider since the Brass Era days when the industry was just finding its legs. For this he should be applauded.

Edited October 28, 2015 by El Kabong

[ocnblu]

Fad, yes, a good word for it.

[smk4565]

Lutz also thought the Solstice/Sky, G8 and Cadillac STS were going to save GM, most of those "gotta have" products Lutz worked on from 2004-2008 led them to bankruptcy.

 

Secondly, Tesla is a hot item and a cool car.  The brand has serious cache, they need more volume than they have, but I think they will be able to expand the line up as batteries get cheaper and get more sales.  They'l find ways to sell cars, and beat the archaic dealership model.

 

Gas is cheap, but people spending $100,000 on a car aren't worried about gas prices.  And compare the rivals, other 600 hp sedans are getting 15 mpg on premium gas, so there is pretty big operating cost savings with an electric.

 

I think Tesla is strong, think of it this way, their crossover has 117 hp more than the most powerful Corvette ever.  

[Drew Dowdell]

Lutz also thought the Solstice/Sky, G8 and Cadillac STS were going to save GM, most of those "gotta have" products Lutz worked on from 2004-2008 led them to bankruptcy.

 

No he didn't.  The Solstice, Sky, GTO, and G8 were attempts to save the performance cars at GM through globalization.  It wasn't about saving GM per say, it was about saving performance.  The Kappa cars in particular were about 75% parts bin products.  He did them on the cheap and used a left-over production plant to build them.

[hyperv6]

Drew I don't buy the power savings but it was a bit tacky to tell people to use them and then tell them not to use them in a letter. He needed to do a plan that would regulate these people and not chastise people.

As for the AWD model it could very well be a prototype but it was not presented that way to the public. No it was not common knowledge.

I think you missed on the quote. The Gig factory may or may not pay off. Not everyone is going to rush out to buy solar panels as they are still too expensive and in many areas like the mid west they are limited half the year on doing a lot. As for the batteries he needs to find a lot of customer other than just Panasonic. He at one point acted like other automakers would come to him. I hope he is not holding his breath on that one. The factory could be successful but it has just as good of odds being the ice berg Tesla hits.

The X is way over played but he had to do it for price. The structure was compromised. The rear doors may be cool in LA but in Buffalo in the winter I can see JR in the car seat eating a lot of snow. I assume in a roll over the doors have a release to come off? As much issue as people are having with rear power hatches I see this as a major defect just waiting to happen. Elons Minions would have bought it with normal doors two years ago.

The windshield is going to be an issue. Just imagine the price to replace it and it really adds little to the car.

I expect the 3 will be delayed and appear while he needs to put more money into a new S. How long can you keep selling the same car here at this price. And even then due to the aero how much can you change it. They will refresh it but I suspect it will not be a major change.

As for the X I think he needs the price a she knows volumes will be low and he needs the cash. The door may have been needed to justify the price.

In the end I agree there are some things off here in the story but he got more right than wrong.

Edited October 29, 2015 by hyperv6

[hyperv6]

Lutz also thought the Solstice/Sky, G8 and Cadillac STS were going to save GM, most of those "gotta have" products Lutz worked on from 2004-2008 led them to bankruptcy.

 

Secondly, Tesla is a hot item and a cool car.  The brand has serious cache, they need more volume than they have, but I think they will be able to expand the line up as batteries get cheaper and get more sales.  They'l find ways to sell cars, and beat the archaic dealership model.

 

Gas is cheap, but people spending $100,000 on a car aren't worried about gas prices.  And compare the rivals, other 600 hp sedans are getting 15 mpg on premium gas, so there is pretty big operating cost savings with an electric.

 

I think Tesla is strong, think of it this way, their crossover has 117 hp more than the most powerful Corvette ever.

Even I did not think you are so foolish to think Lutz led them to Chapter 11.

By the time Bob showed up they were already knocking on the door. He was brought in to fix what he could in a limited time with nearly no money. To do what he did is a credit to his skills. The budget on the GTO was nothing and he was still able to pull it off. It was so tight the hood scoops and split exhaust had to wait a year. The Solstic's help put a renewed focus on Pontiac as well as the G8 but it was too little and too late as they really had nothing else to offer.

Bob did help with the Camaro return and he also started the Culture change that is still ongoing at GM as he said when he got there the culture was severely damaged. He also help funnel a ton of what money they had left in to new projects that would carry them out of Chapter 11 like the Cruze, Nox and other models. He brought us the HHR that many said was too late yet it sold almost every year well into the six figures in volume much higher than any Cobalt wagon would have.

The bottom line is Bob got more right than wrong and was the start of many of the things going right today at GM.

As for Tesla who gives a Sh*T bout a SUV with more power if you can't charge it in the same time it takes to fill the tank on a Gas Powered car. Most people will not wait 30 mins at a charging station that they had to drive 45 min out of their way if they are lucky to wait in line for the 30 min charge.

Until someone even Tesla can make a EV that is not a life style changer it will remain a novelty to most average buyers.

Here in Ohio a EV like a Tesla is more of a second car or a pain in the ass if you drive much. 200 miles may be good as a commuter in LA but out here it does little if you travel any were far. Turn the heater on in the winter and you had better keep close to home.

[Drew Dowdell]

It's not a prototype as more of a development platform.  The front P85D motor, will most likely be the rear Model 3 and possibly entry Roadster motor.  The technical know-how to blend the front and rear motors for AWD was needed ahead of the Model X.  All of the Tesla models are interconnected in this way.

 

Gigafactory will pay off.... I work in the energy sector... our solar division is the fastest growing division in our company and home batteries are going to follow right behind. The company I work for is making huge global investments in both of these, I just sat through 90 minutes of presentation on the subject today.  I will say that it will be the commercial sector that goes Solar/Battery combo first as they have the biggest incentive and biggest savings to do so. 

 

Gigafactory isn't just about car batteries.

[oldshurst442]

Fad, yes, a good word for it.

Not fad. But future.

With or without Tesla...

 

But I think with Tesla.

[oldshurst442]

 

Lutz also thought the Solstice/Sky, G8 and Cadillac STS were going to save GM, most of those "gotta have" products Lutz worked on from 2004-2008 led them to bankruptcy.

 

Secondly, Tesla is a hot item and a cool car.  The brand has serious cache, they need more volume than they have, but I think they will be able to expand the line up as batteries get cheaper and get more sales.  They'l find ways to sell cars, and beat the archaic dealership model.

 

Gas is cheap, but people spending $100,000 on a car aren't worried about gas prices.  And compare the rivals, other 600 hp sedans are getting 15 mpg on premium gas, so there is pretty big operating cost savings with an electric.

 

I think Tesla is strong, think of it this way, their crossover has 117 hp more than the most powerful Corvette ever.

Even I did not think you are so foolish to think Lutz led them to Chapter 11.

By the time Bob showed up they were already knocking on the door. He was brought in to fix what he could in a limited time with nearly no money. To do what he did is a credit to his skills. The budget on the GTO was nothing and he was still able to pull it off. It was so tight the hood scoops and split exhaust had to wait a year. The Solstic's help put a renewed focus on Pontiac as well as the G8 but it was too little and too late as they really had nothing else to offer.

Bob did help with the Camaro return and he also started the Culture change that is still ongoing at GM as he said when he got there the culture was severely damaged. He also help funnel a ton of what money they had left in to new projects that would carry them out of Chapter 11 like the Cruze, Nox and other models. He brought us the HHR that many said was too late yet it sold almost every year well into the six figures in volume much higher than any Cobalt wagon would have.

The bottom line is Bob got more right than wrong and was the start of many of the things going right today at GM.

As for Tesla who gives a Sh*T bout a SUV with more power if you can't charge it in the same time it takes to fill the tank on a Gas Powered car. Most people will not wait 30 mins at a charging station that they had to drive 45 min out of their way if they are lucky to wait in line for the 30 min charge.

Until someone even Tesla can make a EV that is not a life style changer it will remain a novelty to most average buyers.

Here in Ohio a EV like a Tesla is more of a second car or a pain in the ass if you drive much. 200 miles may be good as a commuter in LA but out here it does little if you travel any were far. Turn the heater on in the winter and you had better keep close to home.

 

But what about a whole country investing BILLIONS in the engineering of NEW road infrastructure to recharge as you drive those awful batteries you claim was tacky for Musk to tell abusive assholes to stop abusing taking out the need to charge your battery at a charge station...

 

From 2013 that article

http://www.theengineer.co.uk/automotive/in-depth/your-questions-answered-inductive-charging-for-road-vehicles/1015724.article

 

from 2015...closer in being a reality...

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/20/high-tech-roadways-that-could-charge-your-vehicle.html

 

http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/18/technology/uk-electric-cars-roads/

 

 

 

 

PS: I agree with the Bob Lutz stuff you said...

[Drew Dowdell]

Drew I don't buy the power savings but it was a bit tacky to tell people to use them and then tell them not to use them in a letter. He needed to do a plan that would regulate these people and not chastise people.

Oh, and SuperChargers were never intended to replace regular charging at home. They are a courtesy add-on. What was tacky was people parking there all day or using it for all of their fill-ups.

[balthazar]

Here read this as it shows more media people are now realizing the emperor Elon has no clothes.

http://mashable.com/2015/10/28/tesla-hype/#eX4T8PwSxgqR

Article says a lot of the same things I've been saying for a while now.

 

Tesla isn't a Gov't department, it's a business, with investors. Without a profit, the company will fail… at some point. Loosing half a billion a year is not a sustainable scenario.

 

Model 3 is the most important vehicle past, present or future @ Tesla (as I've also stated before). It alone will save or sink the company. I have a feeling Musk would have liked to also make it a high-priced car and coattail on the image the Model S has created & benefits from, but the Co. desperately needs economies of scale to eventually make a profit, thusly it's priced at 1/3rd the other 2 models. That's many many market tiers below where the S sits, and with a LOT more competition. So not only will the development costs be very formidable, so will marketing and a serious attention to quality/reliability. Add to that a possible introduction date up to 5 years from now (based on past track record), and the 'problem solver' comes with numerous problems of it's own.

 

I like the S, I see them everyday whispering around. It's slinky, and even tho it's styling is not what many would say is 'leading edge', it has presence. However I think the X was a major misstep- it's priced too high and the falcon doors are both gimmicky and without benefit (how are the front passengers supposed to exit in the oft-portrayed uber-tight parking spaces??) I am very interested to see any released figures comparing pre-orders (if released) for the Model X vs. actual sales.

[regfootball]

before the nation (and world) can go electric only, the distribution needs to be figured out. The automakers can convene and do it in an agreed to fashion, or, they end up having happen what is most likely, the world order determines all the parameters of a global vehicle network.

 

The time is ripe to work in electric recharging and overall regridding of America to accommodate electric vehicles that can recharge in 5 minutes like a gas vehicle can.

 

The automakers are going to trip over themselves trying to be the first best autonomous car (which leads us down the road to oblivion but that's another story); this is going to not only divert money from developing electric distribution and recharging, its probably going to kill development money on performance and ICE vehicles too.

 

The model 3 might turn out to be a Hurculean effort by the upstart to build for the masses, but the very thing Lutz has in his article will be Tesla's achilles heel.  You can't sell and market a volume car at low price without the support of a dealer network that is large, organized, and proven.  The car arena is not friendly to unproven products and unproven manufacturers.  There is a huge level of trust involved by the customer with cars, and the whole CR Tesla nitpciking thing just goes to show you that when the mainstream models hit for Tesla, the scrutiny and expectations will be even higher.

 

Enjoy the Volt. They could develop a longer range battery option for the Volt to compete in longer ranges.  Right now its the best mainstream option for bridging into plug in to the grid electrics.  And being able to gas up when on the road.  Cadillac could build a Tesla competitor if they wanted to put the cash out to do it.  So could BMW or Merc or Audi.  Chevy needs to make Voltec propelled mainstream models now.  Equinox, etc.  

[ocnblu]

No one wants electrified vehicles.  The meat of the market is not there.  It is just not there.  And yes, the Model S does exhibit certain kit car tendencies when looked at closely.  There is definitely an amateur look and feel to too many details to dismiss the fact.

[hyperv6]

It's not a prototype as more of a development platform.  The front P85D motor, will most likely be the rear Model 3 and possibly entry Roadster motor.  The technical know-how to blend the front and rear motors for AWD was needed ahead of the Model X.  All of the Tesla models are interconnected in this way.

 

Gigafactory will pay off.... I work in the energy sector... our solar division is the fastest growing division in our company and home batteries are going to follow right behind. The company I work for is making huge global investments in both of these, I just sat through 90 minutes of presentation on the subject today.  I will say that it will be the commercial sector that goes Solar/Battery combo first as they have the biggest incentive and biggest savings to do so. 

 

Gigafactory isn't just about car batteries.

No matter what it was not presented as a developmental product. They just spent all their time telling people how fast it was. Now was that Tesla's fault or just the Media with a misleading take away that I am not sure?

As for Solar. The same can be said for the EV market as it is growing from pretty much nothing to this. Companies are making token moves to install these systems with the idea they will eventually present cost savings but for the most part it is a move on their part to appear green. GM has done this recently at several plants. The home markets most average people are decades from affording these systems. It too like the EV market will be growing but it will be slow.

He also will find the work segment of Reno a mess. Reno I have learned from our own experience with out own company is a very transient town. It is a place people go to make a buck and move on. It is cold in the winter and hot in the summer. It is at least dry. The cost of living is high. Many of the people we have sent there to manage things almost always come back to the snow belt in Ohio of all places. We pay a good wage abut to often people just stop showing up after anywhere from 5 weeks to 5 years and too often we found they just packed up and moved. It is a very different labor market. A plant like his will take a lot of people and he will have to pay a very competitive wage there.

[hyperv6]

Drew I don't buy the power savings but it was a bit tacky to tell people to use them and then tell them not to use them in a letter. He needed to do a plan that would regulate these people and not chastise people.

Oh, and SuperChargers were never intended to replace regular charging at home. They are a courtesy add-on. What was tacky was people parking there all day or using it for all of their fill-ups.

As for the super chargers they were put there for two reasons.

1 To make it so people could at least travel some distance if they chose in their cars and still get home in the same day. His idea is to have them around the country but even at this point most areas are lacking. He just was building his own infrastructure when no ne else would. It was not as much a courtesy as it was a necessity.

#2 He like all other EV companies are trying to set the standard others will follow in the EV segment. They all have different systems and different ideas. There is going to be a need for many of these systems to come together and use similar technology for the sake of the customer. A real need will be to offer charging stations all with the same connectors. How would you like it if every gas station had a different nozzle and fuel? They really need to get together and set SAE standards for charging.

But in the end this story was true that much of Elons plans are ego driven hype. Such as his sharing of technology as it is such a hollow thing as most others have far surpassed anything he has offered.

I do not expect Elon or Tesla to crash and burn but they will not be the leaders in the EV segment as the others are all coming and have much deeper pockets and development. Their infrastructures are also much wider and stronger.

Tesla is like putting a smart kid in a classroom by himself. He will stand out in that room. Now put in a lot of other smart kids in that room and he will become just another kind in the room. Then factor in that the other kids have more resource's and family backing that first kid alone will still be smart but much less able to compete.

In short it will only get tougher for Tesla and they will not be the darling of the segment as more enter the fight. Even one smaller company like Porsche could take them on and take many of their sales with what they have to offer and their long heritage and name in play. No one ever though Porsche would ever compete in the SUV market but they are and making a lot of money doing so. Even the 918 has proven their technology is not in building flat sixes.

[hyperv6]

No one wants electrified vehicles.  The meat of the market is not there.  It is just not there.  And yes, the Model S does exhibit certain kit car tendencies when looked at closely.  There is definitely an amateur look and feel to too many details to dismiss the fact.

There is no truth to no one wants an electrified vehicle. It is a slow grow and truly still experimental market. The Tesla in their defense has that feel of a low volume producer that you get in cars like a Iso Girfo, Morgan or even Delornean. Some like that charm but most are not as accepting as they once were when companies like Bentley, Lambo and Ferrari are now producing models that are as consistent as anything out there.

[David]

 

Drew I don't buy the power savings but it was a bit tacky to tell people to use them and then tell them not to use them in a letter. He needed to do a plan that would regulate these people and not chastise people.

Oh, and SuperChargers were never intended to replace regular charging at home. They are a courtesy add-on. What was tacky was people parking there all day or using it for all of their fill-ups.

 

Very true Drew, I have found many rich Tesla owners think they are entitled to everything free as they are better than the rest. It was and always will be tacky for someone to abuse a system meant for everyone.

[David]

No one wants electrified vehicles.  The meat of the market is not there.  It is just not there.  And yes, the Model S does exhibit certain kit car tendencies when looked at closely.  There is definitely an amateur look and feel to too many details to dismiss the fact.

 

I will have to disagree with you. While I think the smart move is and will be for businesses to move to CNG and it could be a hit with people at home who could refill their auto with time filled over night fueling of CNG, Electric is totally quiet which most people want. You can get a quick charger at home and this then comes down to range. Like anything a change in auto's has to cover a very important point, you have to have range, people do not want to worry about if they will get stuck out on the road. This explains the real lack of EV's taking off as 40 to 60 miles of range in a Leaf, Spark EV, 500EV, etc is just not enough when people do not want to have to think of plugging in every night.

 

The story I did on EV conversions shows that it is expensive. Yet I can get a 200 mile range battery pack covering one section of the undercarriage. I could also get 400 mile range and even higher if I put a battery pack where the gas tank goes behind the rear tires. Sadly the thing holding up a 600 mile range battery solution is cost. About $90,000 on batteries alone. Once the cost comes down, all will be good and I can see EV's taking off as you have no emissions so people will love that.

[Drew Dowdell]

Hyper, I think we're talking past each other.  Offering Superchargers was a necessity. Offering the use of them for free is a courtesy. 

 

At the corporate level, no, the companies aren't making just token moves.  There are big companies making big investments into solar, and along with other power analysis systems, finding ways to save large amounts of money on their energy spend.  We don't just slap panels on the roof and call it a day, we analyze how and where they are using their power and do efficiency projects first, then we put the solar up.

 

When you have a lot of real estate with a lot of flat roof area, the payback time for a solar installation shrinks dramatically. Companies can also lease out their roof to us for a percentage of the energy generated, and we get to sell the power into the grid at market rates. It becomes a no-cost install for that company and their energy bills go down.  We have the advantage of scale and can buy the solar panels cheaper because we're buying so many.

 

These types of services are what my employer offers, we're fairly large company, and still growing fast.  We wouldn't be growing this fast with just token moves. 

[hyperv6]

Hyper, I think we're talking past each other.  Offering Superchargers was a necessity. Offering the use of them for free is a courtesy. 

 

At the corporate level, no, the companies aren't making just token moves.  There are big companies making big investments into solar, and along with other power analysis systems, finding ways to save large amounts of money on their energy spend.  We don't just slap panels on the roof and call it a day, we analyze how and where they are using their power and do efficiency projects first, then we put the solar up.

 

When you have a lot of real estate with a lot of flat roof area, the payback time for a solar installation shrinks dramatically. Companies can also lease out their roof to us for a percentage of the energy generated, and we get to sell the power into the grid at market rates. It becomes a no-cost install for that company and their energy bills go down.  We have the advantage of scale and can buy the solar panels cheaper because we're buying so many.

 

These types of services are what my employer offers, we're fairly large company, and still growing fast.  We wouldn't be growing this fast with just token moves.

I really do not see the Superchargers as a courtesy as much as a range extender and a start to establish the first real infrastructure in hopes others would use the same system. This is a segment of first as the leader will set the trend. It is not far different than the Beta vs. VHS fight we saw in the 70's. The one who sets the standards has much more to gain than the one swimming up stream.

As for Solar it is like Wind. It is a small boost, a big tax credit and good PR. I know these systems will get better with time but for now it is much like buying an electric car you do it more for the small gains and the environment than the large returns.

I saw one guy had almost all his roof covered and he was saving some but not a lot. I asked what are you going to do when you have to shingle the roof?

I know companies have more roof and it is mostly unused space. It will not hurt but I would not cut the power lines yet. I think it would be better to compare it to the long term use of a Diesel to save money. You can do it but it is long term.

[ocnblu]

If I could install solar, I think I would first replace my (2 year old) shingle roof with a metal roof for longevity.

[balthazar]

Tesla is like putting a smart kid in a classroom by himself. He will stand out in that room. Now put in a lot of other smart kids in that room and he will become just another kind in the room. Then factor in that the other kids have more resource's and family backing that first kid alone will still be smart but much less able to compete.

The above is a very well put analogy, hyper.

With EVs being at their (second) dawn, it remains to be seen how much is 'out there' as far as progress/ gains goes. But in the short term, I think you nailed it.

[William Maley]

No one wants electrified vehicles.  The meat of the market is not there.  It is just not there.  And yes, the Model S does exhibit certain kit car tendencies when looked at closely.  There is definitely an amateur look and feel to too many details to dismiss the fact.

I believe there is a number of people who want electrified vehicles, but there are still a number of problems that it doesn't make sense: infrastructure, overall range, price.

If I could, I would actually go out and buy an EV since I don't travel long distances that much.

[William Maley]

As for the topic on hand, I think Tesla is currently heading towards an edge. Right now, Tesla has a key item that many automakers which they had, Cult of Personality. Most owners and a number of media outlets regard the company as the second coming. Even with the number of problems and delays, Tesla seems to have a layer of Teflon over it. But as balthazar pointed out, the Model 3 is going to the acid test. Will Tesla be able to get it right?

Unfortunately, its a wait and see. 

[ocnblu]

William, I think a Bolt could be right for you if you can afford to spend money on a car that could never go on long trips.  I like my freedom too much to invest in such a thing.  I could carry a gas can and get home if I go beyond my truck's range.  Or I could have someone bring me gas.  I couldn't have someone bring me a replacement battery.  Except for the silly overpriced XLR, I think GM has the best electrified lineup in the industry, and the Bolt will be the darling of the group.

[David]

William, I think a Bolt could be right for you if you can afford to spend money on a car that could never go on long trips.  I like my freedom too much to invest in such a thing.  I could carry a gas can and get home if I go beyond my truck's range.  Or I could have someone bring me gas.  I couldn't have someone bring me a replacement battery.  Except for the silly overpriced XLR, I think GM has the best electrified lineup in the industry, and the Bolt will be the darling of the group.

West cost range is not as big of an issue due to the Electric Highway. I wrote about it here:

 

http://www.cheersandgears.com/topic/84688-electric-highway-west-coast-style/

 

There is also what is considered 1 of the top 10 drives in the country a 440 mile highway that is electrified and connects to the West Coast Electric Highway, so you can drive, enjoy the beauty and not worry about getting stuck due to all the quick chargers.

 

http://www.cheersandgears.com/topic/85161-440-mile-washington-cascade-scenic-loop-highway-is-ev-ready/

 

Examples of what you find all over the west coast for EV charging.

 

[FAPTurbo]

[hyperv6]

As for the topic on hand, I think Tesla is currently heading towards an edge. Right now, Tesla has a key item that many automakers which they had, Cult of Personality. Most owners and a number of media outlets regard the company as the second coming. Even with the number of problems and delays, Tesla seems to have a layer of Teflon over it. But as balthazar pointed out, the Model 3 is going to the acid test. Will Tesla be able to get it right?

Unfortunately, its a wait and see.

Yes the 3 will determine if Tesla remains a niche company or if they become mass market. If they remain a niche they could fail soon after as others enter the low volume segment they are in with newer more competitive models and stronger dealer networks.

What I find fascinating is the followers that are die hard get mad if you speak of anything they find negative. They never can counter with any real argument of substance but they can only spew insults.

To some they will almost claim if you own a S model it will cure cancer and hunger world wide. Ask for proof and they will insult your mother.

Not sure I would want to be lumped into that group. They can be worse than some of the anal Corvette owners that are out there.

[El Kabong]

Don't hate on me because my Grand Sport had the one model year-only two tone dash. Or something

[regfootball]

No one wants electrified vehicles.  The meat of the market is not there.  It is just not there.  And yes, the Model S does exhibit certain kit car tendencies when looked at closely.  There is definitely an amateur look and feel to too many details to dismiss the fact.

 

I've been shopping for used Volts or have been thinking about leasing a new one.  The Volt has me sold, the eerie quiet when on electric and the torque rush the electric motor brings are awesome.

 

The problem with the Volt for me is the achilles heel of many recent GM cars.  Terrible amount of space inside.  Tight interior, low headroom, no back leg room.  but the industry as a whole and cafe regs have pushed to make a majority of our vehicles smaller, lower, and crash standards have forced smaller windows and doors.  I would LOVE to have a 17 volt but the budget may not allow.  I'd love to drive a Volt for awhile to evaluate if we are at a tipping point, the volt being the best plug in plus gas range extender option.

 

GM needs to make a Voltec Equinox and Impala now.

Edited October 30, 2015 by regfootball

[El Kabong]

If it makes you feel any better, it's possible the Malibu will be using a Voltec driveline in due course.

[FAPTurbo]

What I find fascinating is the followers haters that are die hard get mad if you speak of anything they find negative. They never can counter with any real argument of substance but they can only spew insults.

 

ftfy

[David]

 

What I find fascinating is the followers haters that are die hard get mad if you speak of anything they find negative. They never can counter with any real argument of substance but they can only spew insults.

 

ftfy

 

OK, you move to England where the student use text shorthand so the rest of us old goats do not understand you?

 

I had to bing ftfy, why not just say fix it for you. Everyone can understand from the start rather than WTF, one of the few I know. 

 

[hyperv6]

FIAT

What I find fascinating is the followers haters that are die hard get mad if you speak of anything they find negative. They never can counter with any real argument of substance but they can only spew insults.

 

That is old man text for fixed it again Tony.

 

I sense we may have a convert among us?

 

It is what it is. Got to any site that has a Tesla post and the converts will jump down anyone's neck for saying anything negative no matter how true it is. You can back it up and link it but yet all they can do is mock your mother but not present a counter point of any coherence.

I voted up a guy on Autoblog the other day I disagreed with on the Tesla. I told him he was one of few that actually try to present a legitimate case to base his comments on. Too often they never do that. I have no issue if they disagree but I really get tired of not presenting anything that is more than an insult to defend their car.

 

I really have no wish for Tesla to fail but I know the reality at hand and many better men before Elon have failed. Even Henry Ford had a tough time in his first several attempts. The fact is it has always been hard to start and maintain no matter what propels it. The New science and electric in this case have multiplied the difficulty X10.

Elon has some high hurdles to attempt yet and many more greater challengers in the segment to come. I still think in the end Tesla will partner or sell out to a larger company at some point. There are only a few who can go it alone today even in gas cars and a start up electric even funded out of his pocket can only go on so long. The lie of reinvestment is getting old. Yes they need to reinvest but they also at some point will have to show a profit. 2020 was the goal and like the X model it will get pushed back. How long will the investors be strung along smitten as they have been? Like Trump Elon has beaten the odds but at some point the path just can not longer be sustained.

 

The 3 will really have to pull this off as I don't see him getting a second chance unless he can move back to the high end models and live off the lower volume and higher priced cars.

At this point I really don't think anyone really knows how this will end. All we have is what normally happens to draw from. Elon may think he will pull it off but even he has to have some moments of reservations. He is not that dumb not to know. You can only live off the hyperbole headlines so long before people get wise.

Edited October 30, 2015 by hyperv6

[David]

FIAT

What I find fascinating is the followers haters that are die hard get mad if you speak of anything they find negative. They never can counter with any real argument of substance but they can only spew insults.

 

That is old man text for fixed it again Tony.

 

I sense we may have a convert among us?

 

It is what it is. Got to any site that has a Tesla post and the converts will jump down anyone's neck for saying anything negative no matter how true it is. You can back it up and link it but yet all they can do is mock your mother but not present a counter point of any coherence.

I voted up a guy on Autoblog the other day I disagreed with on the Tesla. I told him he was one of few that actually try to present a legitimate case to base his comments on. Too often they never do that. I have no issue if they disagree but I really get tired of not presenting anything that is more than an insult to defend their car.

 

I really have no wish for Tesla to fail but I know the reality at hand and many better men before Elon have failed. Even Henry Ford had a tough time in his first several attempts. The fact is it has always been hard to start and maintain no matter what propels it. The New science and electric in this case have multiplied the difficulty X10.

Elon has some high hurdles to attempt yet and many more greater challengers in the segment to come. I still think in the end Tesla will partner or sell out to a larger company at some point. There are only a few who can go it alone today even in gas cars and a start up electric even funded out of his pocket can only go on so long. The lie of reinvestment is getting old. Yes they need to reinvest but they also at some point will have to show a profit. 2020 was the goal and like the X model it will get pushed back. How long will the investors be strung along smitten as they have been? Like Trump Elon has beaten the odds but at some point the path just can not longer be sustained.

 

The 3 will really have to pull this off as I don't see him getting a second chance unless he can move back to the high end models and live off the lower volume and higher priced cars.

At this point I really don't think anyone really knows how this will end. All we have is what normally happens to draw from. Elon may think he will pull it off but even he has to have some moments of reservations. He is not that dumb not to know. You can only live off the hyperbole headlines so long before people get wise.

Bigger issue is why GM has their start that I bet has Tesla trembling in the Bolt, China is also pushing hard to bring out EV's from entry level to Tesla level. They are going to have to turn a profit and quickly grow or sell out and merge with someone to survive.

[hyperv6]

Yes it is just simple economics of scale.

The real issue is they can not rely on China for volume as right now China is weakening in sales and they may just not be able to provide the volume needed there. Also how the 3 may be accepted here if made in China. Just look at all the folks who said hell no to a Buick even when it was hinted on groundless rumors pre UAW negotiations.

 

The Chinese also have no knowledge and or respect of Musk at this point so the car will have to stand on its own merits not the hyped up lines he states in the media.

 

Also I am not sure how well their infrastructure in many parts of the country will handle electric cars. They are just now getting Electricity to parts of the country that never had it let alone able to handle more loads in older areas.

 

We will just have to sit back and watch to see what the 3 is and if it even shows up on time. Then he will also have to address the S as people will expect changes to the car over time. If he wants repeat buyers they will expect more than software changes or minor tech changes.

Edited October 30, 2015 by hyperv6

[ocnblu]

They will remain a niche company until they are broken up and sold in whatever short time they have left.