Will Competition Destroy Tesla?

[oldshurst442]

Tesla delivered nearly 1 million cars in 2021.

They also recalled nearly half-a-million due to some major safety flubs regarding cameras and their sensors of their Model 3 and S that, over time due to wear and tear, the cables of the camera harness might damage over time and hinder the functionality of, causing accidents.  As we know, electronics today play a wildly huge percentage of our accident avoidance awareness and that seems like an expensive fix for Tesla, due to the fact that there is a chip shortage and all.  Wires and cables and chips involved in this recall.  500 000 cars...   They have a hard time producing these things to begin with, now they are laced with repairing half-a-million of them ON TOP of trying to produce the same amount cars sold...

Ive said this before in this thread.  Tesla is mostly Tesla's biggest threat for survival...

The Hyundai Ioniq 5 is just about Tesla Model Y money. Just about the same size too, Im guessing. Dont really care too much for either vehicle so Im not about to compare their sizes.  But no matter how shytty I think Hyundai is, I think its safe to say that Hyundai has got its shyte together well enough NOT to be recalling half-a-million EV vehicles barely a decade in from now...  Besides, Hyundai CAN mass produce more efficiently and more quickly than Tesla can.   Even though Hyundai was utter garbage JUST 15 years ago.   The rabid-ness of these Tesla fanbois might just wane off when  others start producing better EVs?   GM had the same rabid-ness going for them.  It disappeared faster for GM for less shyte it seems...   

 

[balthazar]

3 hours ago, oldshurst442 said:

But no matter how shytty I think Hyundai is, I think its safe to say that Hyundai has got its shyte together well enough NOT to be recalling half-a-million EV vehicles barely a decade in from now... 

According to what I read, hyundai/kia has recalled EIGHT million vehicles for engine failures/fires. Of course, you're not going to see that repeated / remembered by 'journalists'... at all.  [unlike the thread posted today by Ninety-Eight Regency...]

[oldshurst442]

1 hour ago, balthazar said:

According to what I read, hyundai/kia has recalled EIGHT million vehicles for engine failures/fires. Of course, you're not going to see that repeated / remembered by 'journalists'... at all.  [unlike the thread posted today by Ninety-Eight Regency...]

And that thread and similar videos like in that thread was what I was referring to. 

And I didnt know that Hyundai recalled that many for engine failures/fires.   

Thanx for the info. 

[balthazar]

It's a foreign manufacturer, not one of those dirty, nasty American brands that steals SO much from the citizenry and "doesn't care", so massive quality issues there get swept under the rug. 'taint no big thing.

Edited January 3, 2022 by balthazar

[David]

12 hours ago, oldshurst442 said:

And that thread and similar videos like in that thread was what I was referring to. 

And I didnt know that Hyundai recalled that many for engine failures/fires.   

Thanx for the info. 

Was interested in seeing the details, 7.2 million engine fire recalls from 2010 to 2021.

2010-2021-Hyundai-Kia-Engine-and-Fire-Recalls-5-18-21.pdf (autosafety.org)

[balthazar]

^ Ain't it interesting how that's not a general knowledge/pop culture thing like 'GM ignition switches'??

Know how many Pintos Ford recalled for fire issues (everyone knows about 'exploding Pintos, right??)
1.5 million.

You should be able to buy -say- stickers or t-shirts with cartoon, burning hyundais / kias and late night hosts should be using flaming hyundais as a punch line in jokes. 

Nary a whisper. 'taint no big thing.

[Robert Hall]

54 minutes ago, balthazar said:

^ Ain't it interesting how that's not a general knowledge/pop culture thing like 'GM ignition switches'??

Know how many Pintos Ford recalled for fire issues (everyone knows about 'exploding Pintos, right??)
1.5 million.

You should be able to buy -say- stickers or t-shirts with cartoon, burning hyundais / kias and late night hosts should be using flaming hyundais as a punch line in jokes. 

Nary a whisper. 'taint no big thing.

Different time and place...the Pinto recalls were over 40 years ago...

[balthazar]

WHAT... does that have to do with anything?

Are you saying everyone will associate hyundai / kia with engine fires 40 years into the future?

[Robert Hall]

3 minutes ago, balthazar said:

WHAT... does that have to do with anything?

Are you saying everyone will associate hyundai / kia with engine fires 40 years into the future?

Meaning for whatever reason, the Hyundai/Kia issues haven't got the media attention of the Pinto issues 40+ years ago.   Also, the Pintos were exploding in accidents--very dramatic, while the Hyundai/Kia issue seems to be spontaneous fires.  

Edited January 3, 2022 by Robert Hall

[balthazar]

I don't see any difference to the consumer RE the circumstances of the fires.

OK; contrast the Hyundai mess with the GM ignition switch news proliferation... or is 2014 way too far back in history to remember?

And I've given my theory for 'whatever the reason'... have a counter-theory?

[surreal1272]

Wow! Another thread, another headache from just reading the last page here.

 

 

 

 

[Robert Hall]

1 hour ago, balthazar said:

I don't see any difference to the consumer RE the circumstances of the fires.

OK; contrast the Hyundai mess with the GM ignition switch news proliferation... or is 2014 way too far back in history to remember?

And I've given my theory for 'whatever the reason'... have a counter-theory?

I know you are looking for a paranoid conspiracy theory, but maybe there have been more pressing real world issues that have dominated the new cycles the last few years?  Also, how many cases of actual fires have been attributed to this issue? Any fatalities or injuries?  

Googling 'Hyundai engine fires' have turned up plenty of mainstream press articles, not just from automotive news sources, so it has gotten coverage.

This one ABC news article mentions 31 fires.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-steps-probe-hyundai-kia-engine-failures-fires-81954665

But this seems like a thread derailment issue, since this is a thread about Tesla.

Edited January 3, 2022 by Robert Hall

[ccap41]

One of my friends had a 2011 Sonata that caught fire AFTER the supposed recall for the fire had been fixed. This was just last year. Now she has a CX-5 and will likely never touch Hyundai ever again. Hyundai spend $11,000 fixing the vehicle that was only worth about $8-9,000 at the time. 

[surreal1272]

41 minutes ago, Robert Hall said:

Also, how many cases of actual fires have been attributed to this issue? Any fatalities or injuries?  

Here's the key part. 0 deaths vs. 124 deaths. There have been ZERO deaths from the Hyundai" Kia engines issues. Not even a reported injury from them. The same can not be said of the GM ignition debacle. If folks don't see the reason(s) for the perceived media disparity, knowing that fact, then this entire page here has been one big waste. Some folks here tend to see what they want to see because bias is real.

 

And I'm with you Robert. There has been PLENTY of coverage on the Hyundai/Kia engine problems. 

[David]

Interesting the push on Hyundai/Kia engine fires in which while like @Robert Hall found plenty of news stories about the cars catching fire, but not a one about the cares exploding or killing people from said engine fire unlike the exploding Pinto's that did cost people their lives.

Then you have Tesla, yes plenty of fires, all due for the most part to battery pack trauma. But not killing people like the exploding Pinto's of Ford Motor Company.

Why Tesla Cars Catch on Fire (businessinsider.com)

All in all, I think many humans will choose to go to another auto company and not come back, but I doubt it will have the history of memory like a Ford Pinto Exploding did.

Tesla has plenty of faults but also, I doubt that the battery pack fires from accident trauma will slow down their sales even with the recent, we shipped 1 million autos in 2021 and are recalling 500,000 autos.

What I see slowing down Tesla is that once Legacy auto companies start to ship in volume BEVs, this will cause people to look twice. We see plenty of reviews where Tesla fans are getting nitpicky just to find fault with the Ford Mach-e, but even more reviews by former Tesla owners that praise how well Ford did on their first BEV.

Tesla lack of paying attention to quality and then new BEVs form legacy OEMs will be a bigger ding to Tesla sales and possible survival than anything else.

[riviera74]

I believe that since no one has died, coverage is more sparse and less sensationalist.  Also, some people are willing to cut Tesla some slack, given how young and 'hip' the company is compared to the competition.  Eventually Tesla will probably be swept aside by the legacy automakers since Tesla has not made a truly affordable model to replace all the new/newish cars out there.

[balthazar]

It's at least 2 deaths so far.

[surreal1272]

8 hours ago, balthazar said:

It's at least 2 deaths so far.

And both were from car accidents. Big and KEY difference there. The same could not be said for the Pinto and GM's ignition issues (again, 124 deaths). I don't even know how you can even compare it at this point. 

Edited January 5, 2022 by surreal1272

[Robert Hall]

8 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

And both were from car accidents. Big and KEY difference there. The same could not be said for the Pinto and GM's ignition issues (again, 124 deaths). I don't even know how you can even compare it at this point. 

The bigger safety issue at this point w/ Tesla is the 'auto pilot' cruise control and people thinking they can take a nap while driving, etc..been many crashes and some fatalities to misuse of that feature.

Edited January 5, 2022 by Robert Hall

[balthazar]

^ It must just be one of those 'luck of the draw' scenarios; as uncommon as Teslas are in the general population one still drove off the road within 2 miles of my house; "confused" by striped lines on the road- it split the difference between the highway and the off-ramp, and drove onto the island & thru a highway sign. 

[David]

Tesla seems to be fighting back as they have applied for Grants in Texas for their SuperCharging stations that will have them install the chargers with a CCS and a CHAdeMO port according to the site requirements for their application.

DCFCH 22 Applications Received | PDF | Companies Of The United States | Companies (scribd.com)

Also, Electrek is reporting that Musk wants to have his stations as common as gas stations across Texas and this also comes with the requirement that they support the CCS/CHAdeMO ports.

Tesla applies to install Supercharger stations in Texas with CCS connectors - Electrek

Electrek believes this will be for Tesla to open their charging stations to other OEM BEVs and as such will push the CCS port over actually having the CHAdeMO port which is a dead standard at this point. Will they have longer charging cables to support ports in different locations?

Interesting turn of events since we have seen the CCS2 port on Tesla Auto's to meet the European standard and now this for the US.

[David]

Interesting Tesla Earnings call. Supply issues will continue to be a problem for 2022 for Tesla and as such the product road map that Musk was to present has come to naught.

Top things Tesla Fans were expecting to hear start production this year or have an updated time frame on.

• $25,000 Tesla car, NOPE Nothing being done on this front according to Musk.
• Tesla Cybertruck, New concept, nothing really different other than still ugly, no door handles, huge ass single windshield wiper. Still not usable as a real truck. No production yet.
• Tesla Semi truck, NOPE no update, nothing happening on this front either.

In the end, a very disappointing lack of product roadmap as Musk says NO NEW PRODUCT will come out in 2022. Tesla will continue to product the 4 BEVs they have as they bring Texas online and ramp up Berlin for auto production to compliment their California and China production sites.

Seems this will put Tesla farther behind the Legacy OEMs as they ramp up for production of full size Trucks/SUVs and Rivian continues to ramp up production of their R1T and R1S auto's.

Tesla (TSLA) earnings Q4 2021 (cnbc.com)

Stock dropped 5% in extended trading but recovered. Stagnant this morning. The next 24 months are going to be very interesting for Tesla as Ford and GM ramp up production and RAM/Dodge/Jeep/Chrysler roll out their first BEVs.

[David]

Seeing stories like this makes me think that Musk will be his own worst enemy. Seems Public Robo Taxis make $25,000 BEV unnecessary. So poor to low-income folks should just give up on owning an auto and take public robo taxis like in Total recall. Got it. 

Musk you suck!

Musk says Tesla isn’t working on $25,000 EV, suggests robotaxis make it less important (greencarreports.com)

[oldshurst442]

Musk and Tesla is also working on a robot...

https://insideevs.com/news/563498/tesla-robot-mostimportant-product-development/

 

But he gets pissed at Biden for excluding Telsa when talking about American EV production.  

Why is he pissed?  He is LITERALLY saying that cars may not be that important for humans in the future with these two new endeavors...   Biden may NOT be wrong in excluding Tesla for American EV manufacturing... 

 

 

[balthazar]

I've never been in an Uber/Lyft.
I've taken a taxi twice (that I can recall).
I've been in a 'town car' twice.
Have no interest in expanding that list. 
Have no interest in autonomous 'pool' cars / not owning the vehicle myself.

If it comes to the point I cannot meet my needs in the new motor vehicle world, I'll go back to vintage; get a clean '60s car rebuilt/restomodded to my specs. Should be on par with the ever-rising ATPs people spend on new stuff. Then I can bask in the 'invisibility cloak' that car offers me; no vehicle-to-vehicle communications, no black boxes, no OEM tracking.

THAT'S when I start my crime spree. 🥸

[David]

33 minutes ago, balthazar said:

I've never been in an Uber/Lyft.
I've taken a taxi twice (that I can recall).
I've been in a 'town car' twice.
Have no interest in expanding that list. 
Have no interest in autonomous 'pool' cars / not owning the vehicle myself.

If it comes to the point I cannot meet my needs in the new motor vehicle world, I'll go back to vintage; get a clean '60s car rebuilt/restomodded to my specs. Should be on par with the ever-rising ATPs people spend on new stuff. Then I can bask in the 'invisibility cloak' that car offers me; no vehicle-to-vehicle communications, no black boxes, no OEM tracking.

THAT'S when I start my crime spree. 🥸

Kinda how I am planning the conversion of my 1994 GMC Suburban to Electric with no vehicle-to-vehicle communication or a government black box to track me!  

[oldshurst442]

8 minutes ago, David said:

Kinda how I am planning the conversion of my 1994 GMC Suburban to Electric with no vehicle-to-vehicle communication or a government black box to track me!  

 

You got vaxxed, didnt you?

Too late for that, bud! 

 

[Robert Hall]

1 hour ago, David said:

Kinda how I am planning the conversion of my 1994 GMC Suburban to Electric with no vehicle-to-vehicle communication or a government black box to track me!  

You don't carry a cell phone? 

[David]

@oldshurst442 @Robert Hall Yes, I am vaxxed, Yes I carry a smartphone, Yes I am all about technology to a point.

Having an auto that communicates to other auto's, one that can be remote controlled, I am hesitant about but will not stop me from buying a modern BEV. I also see no reason to not use the options be it the e-Crate system from GM of the Hummer tri-motor to update or the Magna system to update my suburban from ICE to BEV.

I love tech, but want to control it on my terms, not the governments. That is all I am saying.

[Robert Hall]

Just now, David said:

@oldshurst442 @Robert Hall Yes, I am vaxxed, Yes I carry a smartphone, Yes I am all about technology to a point.

Having an auto that communicates to other auto's, one that can be remote controlled, I am hesitant about but will not stop me from buying a modern BEV. I also see no reason to not use the options be it the e-Crate system from GM of the Hummer tri-motor to update or the Magna system to update my suburban from ICE to BEV.

I love tech, but want to control it on my terms, not the governments. That is all I am saying.

I have no interest in self-driving cars, or cars that talk to each other.  Working in software for 25 years, I know just how buggy and easily hacked most software is...don't trust it to drive a 9000lb vehicle down the road...

[Robert Hall]

The GM e-Crate is very interesting, I could imagine building a retro-modern Fleetwood Brougham land yacht--keep the classic styling, soft and quiet ride, cushy seats, upgrade the audio and add the e-Crate and modern brakes, etc.   Now that is a Cadillac EV I'd drive...

 

Edited January 28, 2022 by Robert Hall

[David]

16 minutes ago, Robert Hall said:

The GM e-Crate is very interesting, I could imagine building a retro-modern Fleetwood Brougham land yacht--keep the classic styling, soft and quiet ride, cushy seats, upgrade the audio and add the e-Crate and modern brakes, etc.   Now that is a Cadillac EV I'd drive...

 

Think of the Huge Frunk to compliment the Huge Trunk on that plus the quiet ride!

[oldshurst442]

55 minutes ago, Robert Hall said:

The GM e-Crate is very interesting, I could imagine building a retro-modern Fleetwood Brougham land yacht--keep the classic styling, soft and quiet ride, cushy seats, upgrade the audio and add the e-Crate and modern brakes, etc.   Now that is a Cadillac EV I'd drive...

 

That what you said or...

A restomodded Fleetwood Brougham D'Ellegance with all the goodies from a CT6 V Blackwing.  Especially the Blackwing V8 and the magnetic shocks. 

 

[David]

1 hour ago, Robert Hall said:

The GM e-Crate is very interesting, I could imagine building a retro-modern Fleetwood Brougham land yacht--keep the classic styling, soft and quiet ride, cushy seats, upgrade the audio and add the e-Crate and modern brakes, etc.   Now that is a Cadillac EV I'd drive...

 

I could also go for doing the tri-motor e-crate system in this Caddy.

[Robert Hall]

16 minutes ago, oldshurst442 said:

That what you said or...

A restomodded Fleetwood Brougham D'Ellegance with all the goodies from a CT6 V Blackwing.  Especially the Blackwing V8 and the magnetic shocks. 

 

Yes, or an LS.

[David]

3 minutes ago, Robert Hall said:

Yes, or an LS.

I think I would love the electric AWD in this land yacht for maximum traction in the PNW rain and snow. Think of how well this comfy ride would be with torque vectoring on an AWD system that is electric quiet.

🤔 Bet a little extra insulation would help reduce if not remove the electric wine.

[David]

I watched this video which wraps up all the craziness that Musk has done in the last few weeks, and he really could sink Tesla at the way he is going.

 

[David]

Another BLACK eye to Tesla, while I tried to get into the press release section of Nikola, I am awaiting approval, we will have to go with the story from Inside EV.

Seems Tesla is slipping farther and farther behind as Tesla Semi Trucks are currently scheduled for production to start summer 2023 in Texas.

Nikola Tre BEV Series Production Began March 21, Beating Tesla Semi (insideevs.com)

Even after the deception by the ex-CEO and Founder about pickup trucks and other toys as he attempted to mimic Musk, the new CEO was able to turn the ship around and actually get these trucks into production. Nikola says 500 will be built this year and delivered to customers here in the US due to parts shortages. June 2023, production will begin at their Germany site for building trucks for Europe.

[balthazar]

This whole 'we're gonna beat you to market by X months' is really much to do about nothing. 
If the 'whole industry' is going the way of BE motive power, everyone will get there at some point and no one will remember who was first.

[David]

22 minutes ago, balthazar said:

This whole 'we're gonna beat you to market by X months' is really much to do about nothing. 
If the 'whole industry' is going the way of BE motive power, everyone will get there at some point and no one will remember who was first.

Very true, that with everyone moving to electric Semi's eventually everyone will be there. Paccar owner of Kenworth and Peterbuilt has had many electric mules testing around Seattle as their HQ is in Bellevue and the custom-built plant is in Redmond where they also build CNG Semi Trucks and will initially build electric too. 

Will be interesting to see how these do as I see allot of positive for having them do the inner-city delivery work and suburban deliveries.

I think for Musk as Nikola was started by one of Tesla original folks who started to work on the Tesla Semi and I think the Ego could be bruised if Nikola truly can deliver 500 this year and ramp up next year while Tesla is just try to start in Summer of 2023.

Gonna be an interesting Marathon for sure.

[balthazar]

Lo-ooong term transition; most independent owner/operators won't be able to afford a BE semi.  You force what can't be afforded and you basically bankrupt people from their livelihoods.

[David]

44 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Lo-ooong term transition; most independent owner/operators won't be able to afford a BE semi.  You force what can't be afforded and you basically bankrupt people from their livelihoods.

Yes very true as we have many independent long haul truckers.

I honestly do not see a full conversion in our life time.

The BE Semi will be good for the short haul, inner city and suburban delivery thing.

[riviera74]

On 3/25/2022 at 9:42 PM, balthazar said:

Lo-ooong term transition; most independent owner/operators won't be able to afford a BE semi.  You force what can't be afforded and you basically bankrupt people from their livelihoods.

I would be shocked if BE Semis replaced ICE versions in the next 25 years.  Cost/Benefit might not be good enough right now.

[David]

On 3/26/2022 at 7:15 PM, riviera74 said:

I would be shocked if BE Semis replaced ICE versions in the next 25 years.  Cost/Benefit might not be good enough right now.

As @balthazar stated and I agree with we will not see long haul truckers replace their Semi's with BE in the next 25 years in large numbers as I expect it will still be very expensive.

Yet with inner city and Suburbs starting to mandate BE use by 2030, it makes sense that this will be the sweet spot for BE Semi's over the next 3 decades.

A complete replacement of all trucks in all categories as well as private owned auto's will happen after our lifetime IMHO.

[balthazar]

There will NEVER be a 'complete' replacement.

And when there aren't any/enough BE semis to provide for city/urban delivery and people start seeing crazy shortages, IC trucks will be 're-allowed' into the cities.  You cannot cut the supply before you have an alternative in place, ready to go.  Politicians -stupid as always- are approaching the issue backwards.

[smk4565]

On 9/8/2021 at 9:00 AM, ccap41 said:

Not much difference because the Aviator is much wider. If you actually calculate out their volume that the vehicle occupies, based on exterior dimensions, the Aviator is a larger overall vehicle. 

Maybe they should push the Aviator into the $180k range like the GLS.

[smk4565]

Tesla was #2 in profit per unit in 2021, just $14 behind Mercedes-Benz, plus with that market cap, Tesla seems like it will be hard to beat.

Here is a video from Outline ranking the car makers in revenue and profits.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoF741Lw954

[David]

45 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

Tesla was #2 in profit per unit in 2021, just $14 behind Mercedes-Benz, plus with that market cap, Tesla seems like it will be hard to beat.

Here is a video from Outline ranking the car makers in revenue and profits.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoF741Lw954

Let's take a REAL BUSINESS LOOK at Tesla, putting accounting into effect, Tesla is a money questionable business putting off paying debt into the future.

tsla-20210630-gen.pdf (tesla.com)

Here is the End Report of Tesla 2021, December 31st.

If they had to pay all the debt incurred and liabilities, they would not be where you think they are today. Being a darling, they are able to play the shell game well.

The big benefit is that it finally forced the Legacy OEMs to finally put up or shut up and many are stepping up to compete. Be interesting to see where this is in 2025.

[smk4565]

2 hours ago, David said:

Let's take a REAL BUSINESS LOOK at Tesla, putting accounting into effect, Tesla is a money questionable business putting off paying debt into the future.

tsla-20210630-gen.pdf (tesla.com)

Here is the End Report of Tesla 2021, December 31st.

If they had to pay all the debt incurred and liabilities, they would not be where you think they are today. Being a darling, they are able to play the shell game well.

The big benefit is that it finally forced the Legacy OEMs to finally put up or shut up and many are stepping up to compete. Be interesting to see where this is in 2025.

It will be interesting to see where it is in 2025 or 2030.  If these investors and industry insiders are right, Tesla could outsell Ford or GM by 2030.  The problem with most of the traditional OEM's as they are introducing EV's going into Tesla price territory and leaving their traditional price territory, aka a $50k Kia EV6.  This I think is a danger for the legacy OEM's as they kill off their entry level cars and just focus on big SUVs, pick ups and and EV's that are expensive, they could price out some of their customer base.  Meanwhile Tesla keeps expanding.  But if the OEM's can get their EV's in order and beat Tesla on quality (shouldn't be hard to do) and on price, then maybe they can take them out.

[ccap41]

13 hours ago, smk4565 said:

Maybe they should push the Aviator into the $180k range like the GLS.

1: They have the Navigator to get into the 100k range

2: Lincoln doesn't have the brand equity to ask 180k for anything right now.

They're taking much-needed steps towards gaining brand recognition and making actually really good products again. BUT, they dug themselves a hole from like the 90's through about 2015, then they started to differentiate themselves from Ford products.