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Jaguar News: Jaguar's Big Gamble: All-Electric By 2025


William Maley

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2 hours ago, balthazar said:

BE's take a LOT less R&D, right? 

Reality disconnect / wishful thinking; we're halfway thru the '21 MY already.

Market share now is below 2% in the U.S., 4% globally, and peaked in 2018. Never see that kind of market penetration that quickly (8.5 years).

Consumers aren't interested in suddenly paying 50%more for their next vehicle. That's FAR more significant & real than a drag strip time.
 

Not 50% more, prices will level off and be pretty similar.  

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16 hours ago, balthazar said:

BE's take a LOT less R&D, right? 

 

BEs take a lot more R&D investment, I would think..esp. for the batteries...  ICE R&D should be pretty low since they have been around forever...

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13 hours ago, balthazar said:

^ What's your evidence for that theory?

2021 Kona EV MSRP is 82% higher than the IC version.
EQS is expected to be 35% higher than the GLS.

IMO, "pretty similar" had better be no more than around 7% higher than IC to be legitimately 'pretty similar'.

The Bolt just had a price drop.  Tesla cut prices too.  Battery tech improvements will help get battery cost down.  There will be R&D and production cost savings when there is a scalable EV platform that can be used for everything from a Corvette to a Suburban, you just modify the size of the same design.  In 2030 EV’s won’t have as bad as a price gap to ICE.  And for luxury cars it won’t be noticeable.  Jaguars cost Tesla money right now and offer less performance.

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Bolt did have a significant price drop; now it's $32K whereas the car it most closely approximates, the Sonic, was $18K. Not close.

Tesla didn't lower prices; it shifted a grand from the base model to the performance trim Model 3. Base is still above the 6-month-only $35K offering last year. Model S is up about $12 grand from its debut. 

Rivian is coming in at a start of $70 or $75K, whereas the big 4 start in the upper $30s.

We've been hearing about 'cheaper battery costs' for years. The gaps are still huge. Remember, we need price parity with similar IC vehicles to see mass change-over, not dribs & drabs.

The 'scalable BE platform' is exactly what many folk have railed against vehemently with "too much parts sharing" and "model A is the same as model B" - that's only going to denigrate future BE's as 'rebadges' in many folk's minds.

As far as luxury brands go- all the growth there is in the cheap entry-level models; the limited take upper models won't be affected much... but they don't have nearly the volume.

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4 minutes ago, balthazar said:

 
The 'scalable BE platform' is exactly what many folk have railed against vehemently with "too much parts sharing" and "model A is the same as model B" - that's only going to denigrate future BE's as 'rebadges' in many folk's minds. 

That's no different from the approach used for decades by companies like GM (or any major automaker, for that matter) that have a broad range of ICE models, though.  Platform and component sharing is not necessarily 'rebadging'...

Edited by Robert Hall
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Im excited to see these platforms come to life. Im excited to see what new forms of vehicles engineers and car designers could come up with.  IF the new generation of "drivers" are as enthusiastic about cars as we are and WANT different cars to DRIVE and NOT be what I think they will be...just mindless dolts not caring about what they are driving and be seen driven in...to which these new platforms will just be shytty isolation pods...

Like SMK just said.  From Corvettes to panel trucks ALL on the same scalable platform. The sheet metal changes. There will NOT be ANY confinement due to an engine and transmission and all that "old" tech that comes with ICE taking up that space.  The electric motors and batteries are all tucked away from the passenger compartment freeing up all the real estate in the cabin, and the exterior dimensions, well, the designers could go wild...

But...like I said...all the space gained in the cabin, and the mindless dolts would probably prefer to brush their teeth and brew their coffee in that shytty isolation pod  on the way to work...

GM's Hy-Wire  at the turn of this century

Image result for gm hy-wire interior

Image result for gm hy-wire interior

 

To what Peugeot took to the next level 20 years later.   On a skate platform.  With today's tech and vision

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

BEVs still require huge R & D costs. I'm all for electric drive trains. However, BEVs are not ready for prime time for most that aren't early adopters without heavy mandates or incentives.

In the real world thru 2030, we are just going to get plug in hybrids with some dedicated all-electric BEVs for compliance markets like California or Norway. Jaguar is niche enough to make this full BEV gamble with a bigger upside in the short run. We'll see if Toyota, Honda, & Hyundai's gamble with fuel cell EVs is wiser. 

We still haven't seen the Oil & Gas Industry's play to decarbonize transportation and energy. My money in on ammonia fuel cell EVs. Hydronitrogen fuels like ammonia are going to replace every single hydrocarbon fuel in our energy system in a potentially rapid timescale. With large scale national infrastructure and Ammonia prices per gallon on par with gasoline and diesel, it's just a matter of when. 

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On 2/20/2021 at 1:40 PM, balthazar said:

I think I saw they sold 5400 I-paces globally in the first half of ‘20. That was like 40% lower than '19, but : 2020.

I can see a case for a major conglomerate to hedge it's bet and intro some well-done EVs, because they have the fall-back of successful/profitable ICs doing all the heavy (financial) lifting. But when you barely eek out any volume and you dive head-first into a segment that's 2-4% of the global sales, you're going to funnel your volume thru that same constricted portal.

Sure, I expect EV market share to grow. Maybe 2% a year into the foreseeable future. So by 2035 (14 years), the natural current of the consumer market should be around a 30% take rate on EVs. By extrapolation, that'd be a 70% reduction in a brand's current volume. Some brands will not survive that.

It's a rapidly growing segment but, EVs are still largely cannibalizing hybrid sales and performance luxury sales. Many Tesla owners are would be Prius, Lexus hybrid,MB AMG,or BMW M buyers.

I think 30% EV market share may be pushing it without seeing how the market reacts to the diversification of the EV market. If the new entries build sales for the segment 30% could be right on target. I'm thinking more like 10% with half of the new cars being hybrids or BEVs in 2035. 

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