Jaguar News: Jaguar's Big Gamble: All-Electric By 2025

[William Maley]

Jaguar Land Rover hasn't been doing very well for the past few years. Numerous issues such as poor sales in China, demand for diesel powered vehicles dropping, and the pandemic have put the automaker in a difficult place. This morning in the United Kingdom, Jaguar Land Rover CEO Thierry Bolloré announced plans to make Jaguar an electric only brand by 2025; Land Rover to launch six electric models; and to become a net-zero-carbon business by 2039.

"We are harnessing those ingredients today to reimagine the business, the two brands and the customer experience of tomorrow. The Reimagine strategy allows us to enhance and celebrate that uniqueness like never before. Together, we can design an even more sustainable and positive impact on the world around us," Bolloré said in a statement.

Jaguar

Out of the two brands, Jaguar is hurting the most. Sales have dropped like a rock due to people stepping away from sedans and diesel powertrains. Bolloré's plan has the brand moving to an all-electric lineup by 2025. Not many details were released or talked about during the press conference this morning. What we do know is,

• Future models will utilize a new modular electric platform, known as the Electric Modular Architecture (EMA).
• The planned XJ replacement, rumored to go electric has been canceled.
  • Likely reason for the cancelation is the platform that was going to be used for this model likely didn't scale to other models.
  • Jaguar did say the XJ name could appear again on a future model.
• Automotive News (Subscription Required) reports that Jaguar will also move away from SUV-styled vehicles, likely meaning the end of the E and F-Pace.

Land Rover

Land Rover isn't going to dive in quickly as Jaguar into EVs. The plan is to continue offering a mix of powertrains, but with a heavy focus on electrification. Six all-electric models are planned to be launched by 2030, with the first model coming out in 2024. No word on what that model would be, but our guess is possibly a Range Rover EV. Land Rover will use Electric Modular Architecture for EVs, alongside the Modular Longitudinal Architecture (MLA) for hybrids. The goal is to have 60 percent of Land Rover sales be for electrics by 2030.

Other Details

Jaguar Land Rover said that it would keep all three of its U.K. plans open, but the Castle Bromwich plant(home to Jaguar XE, XF, and F-Type production) has a unclear future.

“First we will continue production of our existing nameplates built there to the end of their lifecycle. Then we will explore opportunities to refurbish the plant, which could benefit from the consolidation of businesses scattered across the Midlands,” said Bolloré.

Jaguar Land Rover is also planning on moving their executive team and other major management positions to a centralized location in Gaydon, and work more closely with their parent company, Tata Group.

Source: Jaguar Land Rover

Jaguar Land Rover reimagines the future of modern luxury by design

• New global strategy – Reimagine – announced for the British company under the leadership of Chief Executive Officer, Thierry Bolloré
• A sustainability-rich reimagination of modern luxury, unique customer experiences, and positive societal impact
• Start of journey to become a net zero carbon business by 2039
• Reimagination of Jaguar as an all-electric luxury brand from 2025 to ‘realise its unique potential’
• In the next five years, Land Rover will welcome six pure electric variants as it continues to be the world leader of luxury SUVs
• All Jaguar and Land Rover nameplates to be available in pure electric form by end of the decade; first all-electric Land Rover model in 2024
• Clean-hydrogen fuel-cell power being developed in preparation for future demand
• Streamlined structure to deliver greater agility and promote an efficiency of focus
• Global manufacturing and assembly footprint to be retained, rightsized, repurposed and reorganised
• Collaborations and knowledge-sharing with industry leaders, in particular from within the wider Tata Group will allow the company to explore potential synergies on clean energy, connected services, data and software development leadership
• On a path towards double-digit EBIT margin and positive cash flow, with an ambition to achieve positive cash net-of-debt by 2025 with a value creation approach delivering quality and profit-over-volume

Gaydon, UK - Monday 15th February 2021:

A vision of modern luxury by design
Jaguar Land Rover will reimagine the future of modern luxury by design through its two distinct, British brands.

Set against a canvas of true sustainability, Jaguar Land Rover will become a more agile creator of the world’s most desirable luxury vehicles and services for the most discerning of customers. A strategy that is designed to create a new benchmark in environmental, societal and community impact for a luxury business.

“Jaguar Land Rover is unique in the global automotive industry. Designers of peerless models, an unrivalled understanding of the future luxury needs of its customers, emotionally rich brand equity, a spirit of Britishness and unrivalled access to leading global players in technology and sustainability within the wider Tata Group.

“We are harnessing those ingredients today to reimagine the business, the two brands and the customer experience of tomorrow. The Reimagine strategy allows us to enhance and celebrate that uniqueness like never before. Together, we can design an even more sustainable and positive impact on the world around us,” said Mr Bolloré.

Two distinct modern luxury brands with sustainability at the centre
At the heart of its Reimagine plan will be the electrification of both Land Rover and Jaguar brands on separate architectures with two clear, unique personalities.

In a Land Rover, vehicle and driver are united by adventure. By breaking new ground, confronting new challenges and not being content with the expected, Land Rover truly helps people to go ‘Above and Beyond’. In the next five years, Land Rover will welcome six pure electric variants as it continues to be the world leader of luxury SUVs through its three families of Range Rover, Discovery and Defender. The first all-electric variant will arrive in 2024.

By the middle of the decade, Jaguar will have undergone a renaissance to emerge as a pure electric luxury brand with a dramatically beautiful new portfolio of emotionally engaging designs and pioneering next-generation technologies. Jaguar will exist to make life extraordinary by creating dramatically beautiful automotive experiences that leave its customers feeling unique and rewarded. Although the nameplate may be retained, the planned Jaguar XJ replacement will not form part of the line-up, as the brand looks to realise its unique potential.

Jaguar and Land Rover will offer pure electric power, nameplate by nameplate, by 2030. By this time, in addition to 100% of Jaguar sales, it is anticipated that around 60% of Land Rovers sold will be equipped with zero tailpipe powertrains.

Jaguar Land Rover’s aim is to achieve net zero carbon emissions across its supply chain, products and operations by 2039. As part of this ambition, the company is also preparing for the expected adoption of clean fuel-cell power in line with a maturing of the hydrogen economy. Development is already underway with prototypes arriving on UK roads within the next 12 months as part of the long-term investment programme.

Sustainability that delivers a new benchmark in environmental and societal impact for the luxury sector is fundamental to the success of Reimagine. A new centralised team will be empowered to build on and accelerate pioneering innovations in materiality, engineering, manufacturing, services and circular economy investments. 

Annual commitments of circa £2.5bn will include investments in electrification technologies and the development of connected services to enhance the journey and experiences of customers, alongside data-centric technologies that will further improve their ownership ecosystem.

Proven services like the flexible PIVOTAL subscription model (which has grown 750% during the fiscal year), born out of Jaguar Land Rover’s incubator and investor arm, InMotion, will now be rolled out to other markets following a successful launch in the UK.

Quality and efficiency
Reimagine will see Jaguar Land Rover establish new benchmark standards in quality and efficiency for the luxury sector by rightsizing, repurposing and reorganising.

Central to that journey, and in order to establish different personalities for the two brands, is the new architecture strategy. 

Land Rover will use the forthcoming flex Modular Longitudinal Architecture (MLA). It will deliver electrified internal combustion engines (ICE) and full electric variants as the company evolves its product line-up in the future. In addition, Land Rover will also use pure electric biased Electric Modular Architecture (EMA) which will also support advanced electrified ICE.

Future Jaguar models will be built exclusively on a pure electric architecture.

Reimagine is designed to deliver simplification too. By consolidating the number of platforms and models being produced per plant, the company will be able to establish new benchmark standards in efficient scale and quality for the luxury sector. Such an approach will help rationalise sourcing and accelerate investments in local circular economy supply chains.

From a core manufacturing perspective that means Jaguar Land Rover will retain its plant and assembly facilities in the home UK market and around the world. As well as being the manufacturer of the MLA architecture, Solihull, West Midlands will also be the home to the future advanced Jaguar pure electric platform. 

Key partners including Trade Unions, retailers and those in the supply chain will continue to play a vital part of the extended new Jaguar Land Rover ecosystem and its journey towards reimagining the future of modern luxury.

ReFocus to a more agile operation
As evidenced with the latest financial results, Jaguar Land Rover has a strong foundation on which to build a sustainable and resilient business for its customers and their communities, partners, employees, shareholders and the environment.

Driving this transformation is the recently launched Refocus programme, by consolidating existing initiatives like Charge+ with new cross-functional activities.

Reimagine will see Jaguar Land Rover right-size, repurpose and reorganise into a more agile operation. The creation of a flatter structure is designed to empower employees to create and deliver at speed and with clear purpose.

To accelerate this efficiency of focus, the company will substantially reduce and rationalise its non-manufacturing infrastructure in the UK. Gaydon will become the symbol of this effort – the ‘reactor’ of the business - with the Executive Team and other management functions moving into the one location to aid frictionless cooperation and agile decision-making.  

Leapfrog to leadership with Tata Group
In order to realise its vision of modern luxury mobility with confidence, the company will curate closer collaboration and knowledge-sharing with Tata Group companies to enhance sustainability and reduce emissions as well as sharing best practice in next-generation technology, data and software development leadership. Jaguar Land Rover has been a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tata Motors, in which Tata Sons is the largest shareholder, since 2008.

“We have so many ingredients from within. It is a unique opportunity,” said Mr Bolloré. “Others have to rely solely on external partnerships and compromise, but we have frictionless access that will allow us to lean forward with confidence and at speed.”

Bringing all these ingredients together, Jaguar Land Rover is on a path towards double-digit EBIT margins and positive cash flow, with an ambition to achieve positive cash net-of-debt by 2025. 

Ultimately, Jaguar Land Rover aims to be one of the most profitable luxury manufacturers in the world.

Mr N Chandrasekaran, Chairman of Tata Sons, Tata Motors and Jaguar Land Rover Automotive plc commented: “The Reimagine strategy takes Jaguar Land Rover on a significant path of acceleration in harmony with the vision and sustainability priorities of the wider Tata Group. Together, we will help Jaguar realise its potential, reinforce Land Rover’s timeless appeal and collectively become a symbol of a truly responsible business for its customers, society and the planet.”

Mr Bolloré concluded: “As a human-centred company, we can, and will, move much faster and with clear purpose of not just reimagining modern luxury but defining it for two distinct brands. Brands that present emotionally unique designs, pieces of art if you like, but all with connected technologies and responsible materials that collectively set new standards in ownership. We are reimagining a new modern luxury by design.”

View full article

[smk4565]

Jaguar might as well go all electric because the sales of the gas powered cars stink.  Also it would be a waste of money to further develop their gas engines or to spend hundreds of millions on another XF or XJ or whatever.  Better to put 100% of their money into EV's and I suspect the gas power Land Rovers still on sale in 2029 will look a lot like the ones they have now, and will be ancient by then.

Also investors want to see EV's.  Investors are seeing gas cars as a negative.  Also why Tesla is worth more than the 7 largest car companies combined. If you don't do EV's you can't sell stock or get your stock price up, and that is what these CEO's care about.

[oldshurst442]

Like a domino effect.

GM announces the shift to become  all out EV by a set date, and the rest of the industry follows suit.

I expect others to start announcing their roll out plans to end their ICE vehicles by a set date and become all EV in the next weeks...

 

[smk4565]

33 minutes ago, oldshurst442 said:

Like a domino effect.

GM announces the shift to become  all out EV by a set date, and the rest of the industry follows suit.

I expect others to start announcing their roll out plans to end their ICE vehicles by a set date and become all EV in the next weeks...

 

Everyone has announced that.  They all have to do it because investors want it.   And there is probably some fear about being late to the party, because if you miss out on the EV train your company is basically out of business.

[balthazar]

Topically : it was just announced that Daimler’s not going to sell the EQE in the US.

[smk4565]

EQC, but that was kind of half baked I think anyway.  EQS and EQE are made on a Tesla like chassis while EQA EQB and EQC are batteries put in an ICE platform.  They have an EQE SUV in the works but these Mercedes Electric vehicles better be good and have 1,000 hp AMG versions, otherwise Tesla will surpass them like they just surpassed Audi last year (in the USA).

[balthazar]

Why are they still half-assing it? Don't they realize that

2 hours ago, smk4565 said:

if you miss out on the EV train your company is basically out of business.

 

55 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

otherwise Tesla will surpass them

It's Mercedes that MUST surpass Tesla, not the other way around.

[William Maley]

10 hours ago, balthazar said:

Topically : it was just announced that Daimler’s not going to sell the EQE in the US.

I think you mean the EQC, the electric crossover. I was considering writing up that story, but the JLR story I felt was more pressing. 

I don't know why this model was canned for the U.S. for the time being, sales not doing so well in other parts?

[Drew Dowdell]

3 hours ago, William Maley said:

I think you mean the EQC, the electric crossover. I was considering writing up that story, but the JLR story I felt was more pressing. 

I don't know why this model was canned for the U.S. for the time being, sales not doing so well in other parts?

As SMK said... it's just batteries in what used to be an ICE vehicle.  They're probably looking to move it to a dedicated EV platform instead.  Huge cost efficiencies in doing that. Huge.

[smk4565]

13 hours ago, balthazar said:

Why are they still half-assing it? Don't they realize that

 

It's Mercedes that MUST surpass Tesla, not the other way around.

Sales wise I mean.  Tesla is #4 in sales for premium brands in the USA.

The EQE and EQS aren’t half assed, they even built a new factory just for them and the S-class.  EQC was half assed.

[balthazar]

That was my point in going off your definition- why is the eqc half-assed? And if YOU say it is, it must be akin to a ‘99 hyundai pony.

[daves87rs]

Well, at this point they don’t have much to lose.....

[oldshurst442]

At this point, Jaguar really doesnt have much choice either. 

The industry as a whole is going ALL EV because  PLANET EARTH as a whole is going ALL EV. 

 

[balthazar]

On 2/15/2021 at 8:46 PM, smk4565 said:

Jaguar might as well go all electric because the sales of the gas powered cars stink.

Jag is going to cut it's sales by 90%.

[oldshurst442]

Not if they can engineer and produce an EV that rivals and surpasses Tesla. Quality and tech wise. As of now, Jag's quality is better than Tesla's? 

And even of their EVs wont surpass those of Tesla, all they have to do is make better EVs and prettier ones than the rest of the OEMs and they will be fine. 

EVs are the future whether we like that scenario or not....

[balthazar]

How have they done by engineering & producing an IC vehicle that surpasses the segment leaders in quality, tech & prettiness?

[oldshurst442]

As far as prettier EV cars go, Jaguar wins over Tesla, Porsche, Mercedes, BMW.  The Taycan is cool and all, but its styling lends itself to be outdated shortly.  The EV Macan is ugly. The iPace is waaaay prettier. 

Audi EVs, closely resemble their Porsche counterparts, and are prettier IMO. 

Mercedes and BMWs are ugly AF. Uglier than what some Tesla haterz considers Tesla EVs as ugly. 

Ford's Mach E surpasses anything anybody out there is doing with EVs styling wise.

The Lucid Air is awesome looking. 

GM has some nice renderings of their future EVs and Buick's EVs in China look smashing!

GM IMO has the tech to rival and surpass Tesla. GM and what it seems even Ford. 

Jaguar has to up their EV tech game.  The Germans are waaaay behind Tesla. 

Jag has a chance to not only survive, but to excel in this new age.

But to answer your question:

The last time Jag led in those departments were in the 1960s.  A loooong time ago. Before I was born.   Maybe not so much in the reliability department...ever. 

The German's reliability hasnt hurt them though.  THAT means Jag has a chance in the EV future...

 

Edited February 20, 2021 by oldshurst442

[balthazar]

Jag has a LONG track record of fledgling survival, I don't expect that to change regardless; it will remain a struggling niche brand (IC or EV). 

[oldshurst442]

Fair enough.  I cant really argue Jag's track record. 

 

[surreal1272]

1 hour ago, balthazar said:

Jag is going to cut it's sales by 90%.

So from 100 cars sold a year, to 10?

[balthazar]

I think I saw they sold 5400 I-paces globally in the first half of ‘20. That was like 40% lower than '19, but : 2020.

I can see a case for a major conglomerate to hedge it's bet and intro some well-done EVs, because they have the fall-back of successful/profitable ICs doing all the heavy (financial) lifting. But when you barely eek out any volume and you dive head-first into a segment that's 2-4% of the global sales, you're going to funnel your volume thru that same constricted portal.

Sure, I expect EV market share to grow. Maybe 2% a year into the foreseeable future. So by 2035 (14 years), the natural current of the consumer market should be around a 30% take rate on EVs. By extrapolation, that'd be a 70% reduction in a brand's current volume. Some brands will not survive that.

Edited February 20, 2021 by balthazar

[smk4565]

4 hours ago, balthazar said:

Jag is going to cut it's sales by 90%.

Moving to EV won't cause a drop in sales, building bad cars will.  

Electric propulsion is superior to a gasoline drivetrain.  Going EV is the right move, but all their competitors will also, so I don't see what changes for Jaguar.  The Germans will still build better cars than them.

[balthazar]

There are pluses and minuses to BE vehicles, of course. Chief among them- price.

[smk4565]

2 hours ago, balthazar said:

I think I saw they sold 5400 I-paces globally in the first half of ‘20. That was like 40% lower than '19, but : 2020.

I can see a case for a major conglomerate to hedge it's bet and intro some well-done EVs, because they have the fall-back of successful/profitable ICs doing all the heavy (financial) lifting. But when you barely eek out any volume and you dive head-first into a segment that's 2-4% of the global sales, you're going to funnel your volume thru that same constricted portal.

Sure, I expect EV market share to grow. Maybe 2% a year into the foreseeable future. So by 2035 (14 years), the natural current of the consumer market should be around a 30% take rate on EVs. By extrapolation, that'd be a 70% reduction in a brand's current volume. Some brands will not survive that.

But JLR can't spend R&D dollars on ICE and EV at the same time, they don't have the money to do that.  

I have also seen estimates that EV will be over 50% market share by 2030.  I suspect there won't be a gas powered luxury car in 2030, unless it is like an Acura/Lincoln badge job car.  The gas engine can't match the NVH and silent operation off an EV.  Also on performance take any V12 super car and it can't match a Tesla.  And EV technology is only getting better while emissions restrictions and CAFE are killing V12s and V8s.

[balthazar]

BE's take a LOT less R&D, right? 

30 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

have also seen estimates that EV will be over 50% market share by 2030.

Reality disconnect / wishful thinking; we're halfway thru the '21 MY already.

Market share now is below 2% in the U.S., 4% globally, and peaked in 2018. Never see that kind of market penetration that quickly (8.5 years).

Consumers aren't interested in suddenly paying 50%more for their next vehicle. That's FAR more significant & real than a drag strip time.
 

Edited February 20, 2021 by balthazar

[smk4565]

2 hours ago, balthazar said:

BE's take a LOT less R&D, right? 

Reality disconnect / wishful thinking; we're halfway thru the '21 MY already.

Market share now is below 2% in the U.S., 4% globally, and peaked in 2018. Never see that kind of market penetration that quickly (8.5 years).

Consumers aren't interested in suddenly paying 50%more for their next vehicle. That's FAR more significant & real than a drag strip time.
 

Not 50% more, prices will level off and be pretty similar.  

[balthazar]

^ What's your evidence for that theory?

2021 Kona EV MSRP is 82% higher than the IC version.
EQS is expected to be 35% higher than the GLS.

IMO, "pretty similar" had better be no more than around 7% higher than IC to be legitimately 'pretty similar'.

[Robert Hall]

16 hours ago, balthazar said:

BE's take a LOT less R&D, right? 

 

BEs take a lot more R&D investment, I would think..esp. for the batteries...  ICE R&D should be pretty low since they have been around forever...

[smk4565]

13 hours ago, balthazar said:

^ What's your evidence for that theory?

2021 Kona EV MSRP is 82% higher than the IC version.
EQS is expected to be 35% higher than the GLS.

IMO, "pretty similar" had better be no more than around 7% higher than IC to be legitimately 'pretty similar'.

The Bolt just had a price drop.  Tesla cut prices too.  Battery tech improvements will help get battery cost down.  There will be R&D and production cost savings when there is a scalable EV platform that can be used for everything from a Corvette to a Suburban, you just modify the size of the same design.  In 2030 EV’s won’t have as bad as a price gap to ICE.  And for luxury cars it won’t be noticeable.  Jaguars cost Tesla money right now and offer less performance.

[balthazar]

Bolt did have a significant price drop; now it's $32K whereas the car it most closely approximates, the Sonic, was $18K. Not close.

Tesla didn't lower prices; it shifted a grand from the base model to the performance trim Model 3. Base is still above the 6-month-only $35K offering last year. Model S is up about $12 grand from its debut. 

Rivian is coming in at a start of $70 or $75K, whereas the big 4 start in the upper $30s.

We've been hearing about 'cheaper battery costs' for years. The gaps are still huge. Remember, we need price parity with similar IC vehicles to see mass change-over, not dribs & drabs.

The 'scalable BE platform' is exactly what many folk have railed against vehemently with "too much parts sharing" and "model A is the same as model B" - that's only going to denigrate future BE's as 'rebadges' in many folk's minds.

As far as luxury brands go- all the growth there is in the cheap entry-level models; the limited take upper models won't be affected much... but they don't have nearly the volume.

[Robert Hall]

4 minutes ago, balthazar said:

 
The 'scalable BE platform' is exactly what many folk have railed against vehemently with "too much parts sharing" and "model A is the same as model B" - that's only going to denigrate future BE's as 'rebadges' in many folk's minds. 

That's no different from the approach used for decades by companies like GM (or any major automaker, for that matter) that have a broad range of ICE models, though.  Platform and component sharing is not necessarily 'rebadging'...

Edited February 21, 2021 by Robert Hall

[balthazar]

^ No, it's not... but the same folk who railed against such economical practices will likely have the same issue with a 'one-size fits all models' platform under BE's. Just pointing that out; I don't have a problem with it, per say.

[oldshurst442]

Im excited to see these platforms come to life. Im excited to see what new forms of vehicles engineers and car designers could come up with.  IF the new generation of "drivers" are as enthusiastic about cars as we are and WANT different cars to DRIVE and NOT be what I think they will be...just mindless dolts not caring about what they are driving and be seen driven in...to which these new platforms will just be shytty isolation pods...

Like SMK just said.  From Corvettes to panel trucks ALL on the same scalable platform. The sheet metal changes. There will NOT be ANY confinement due to an engine and transmission and all that "old" tech that comes with ICE taking up that space.  The electric motors and batteries are all tucked away from the passenger compartment freeing up all the real estate in the cabin, and the exterior dimensions, well, the designers could go wild...

But...like I said...all the space gained in the cabin, and the mindless dolts would probably prefer to brush their teeth and brew their coffee in that shytty isolation pod  on the way to work...

GM's Hy-Wire  at the turn of this century

 

To what Peugeot took to the next level 20 years later.   On a skate platform.  With today's tech and vision

 

[carman21]

BEVs still require huge R & D costs. I'm all for electric drive trains. However, BEVs are not ready for prime time for most that aren't early adopters without heavy mandates or incentives.

In the real world thru 2030, we are just going to get plug in hybrids with some dedicated all-electric BEVs for compliance markets like California or Norway. Jaguar is niche enough to make this full BEV gamble with a bigger upside in the short run. We'll see if Toyota, Honda, & Hyundai's gamble with fuel cell EVs is wiser. 

We still haven't seen the Oil & Gas Industry's play to decarbonize transportation and energy. My money in on ammonia fuel cell EVs. Hydronitrogen fuels like ammonia are going to replace every single hydrocarbon fuel in our energy system in a potentially rapid timescale. With large scale national infrastructure and Ammonia prices per gallon on par with gasoline and diesel, it's just a matter of when. 

[carman21]

On 2/20/2021 at 1:40 PM, balthazar said:

I think I saw they sold 5400 I-paces globally in the first half of ‘20. That was like 40% lower than '19, but : 2020.

I can see a case for a major conglomerate to hedge it's bet and intro some well-done EVs, because they have the fall-back of successful/profitable ICs doing all the heavy (financial) lifting. But when you barely eek out any volume and you dive head-first into a segment that's 2-4% of the global sales, you're going to funnel your volume thru that same constricted portal.

Sure, I expect EV market share to grow. Maybe 2% a year into the foreseeable future. So by 2035 (14 years), the natural current of the consumer market should be around a 30% take rate on EVs. By extrapolation, that'd be a 70% reduction in a brand's current volume. Some brands will not survive that.

It's a rapidly growing segment but, EVs are still largely cannibalizing hybrid sales and performance luxury sales. Many Tesla owners are would be Prius, Lexus hybrid,MB AMG,or BMW M buyers.

I think 30% EV market share may be pushing it without seeing how the market reacts to the diversification of the EV market. If the new entries build sales for the segment 30% could be right on target. I'm thinking more like 10% with half of the new cars being hybrids or BEVs in 2035.