Industry News: Trump Administration To Double Down On Emission Standards and Revoking California's Privileges

[William Maley]

Fuel efficiency guidelines and California's right to set its own vehicle emissions standards are in the crosshairs of the Trump administration again.

Bloomberg has learned from sources that the administration will be introducing a proposal later this week that revises key parts of the Obama-era standards. This includes capping federal fuel economy requirements at 2020 level of 35 mpg fleet wide, instead of the 50 mpg requirement by 2025. There is also a provision that would revoke the Clean Air Act waiver given to California that allows it to set its own emission regulations.

Sources go onto say that the proposal is in the final stages of a "broad interagency review" being done by the Office of Management and Budget.

These changes were first introduced back in April and got massive pushback from various environmental groups, along with the state of California. A month later, a coalition made up of California, Washington D.C. and sixteen other states filed suit against the rollback. Automakers who pushed for the rollback began to panic as this could result in two different emission regulations they would have to meet. 

Source: Bloomberg

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[smk4565]

I think it will be near impossible to revoke California's waiver, because CARB pre-dates the EPA and any other agency, and what legal authority do they have to revoke it?  Then you get into a political situation where most conservatives will advocate a smaller federal government with states having more power, this does the opposite, it is revoking a state's ability to set laws. 

As far as the cars go themselves, if these automakers want to lobby for low standards so they can keep their profits up in the short term, you'd think the'd remember what happened in the 1970s.  Detroit didn't want to build fuel efficient, they just wanted to make big V8s to get a profit, and the door was left wide open for the Japanese to come in and clean their clocks.   China is going to go all EV, and in 10-15 years they'll have EV's that are like today's Tesla at Chevy prices  and they will flood this country unless GM, Ford, Toyota, etc beat them too it.

[David]

HELL is coming and the battle is about to begin. Who wins, 🤔

[daves87rs]

2 hours ago, smk4565 said:

I think it will be near impossible to revoke California's waiver, because CARB pre-dates the EPA and any other agency, and what legal authority do they have to revoke it?  Then you get into a political situation where most conservatives will advocate a smaller federal government with states having more power, this does the opposite, it is revoking a state's ability to set laws. 

As far as the cars go themselves, if these automakers want to lobby for low standards so they can keep their profits up in the short term, you'd think the'd remember what happened in the 1970s.  Detroit didn't want to build fuel efficient, they just wanted to make big V8s to get a profit, and the door was left wide open for the Japanese to come in and clean their clocks.   China is going to go all EV, and in 10-15 years they'll have EV's that are like today's Tesla at Chevy prices  and they will flood this country unless GM, Ford, Toyota, etc beat them too it.

Tough to say, as we love our big trucks here.....

But we still have to offer both choices, but EVs are part of the future.

To me it is tough to get too high on EVs, as gas burners wind down a bit- guess what bill in your house gets much, much pricier?

Highly doubt wall street will lose sleep over it...

[balthazar]

4 hours ago, smk4565 said:

I think it will be near impossible to revoke California's waiver, because CARB pre-dates the EPA and any other agency, and what legal authority do they have to revoke it?

CARB is an entity within the CA EPA. When they were founded is immaterial, legally.
Cadillac doesn't overrule General Motors just because it was founded years before.

[smk4565]

1 hour ago, daves87rs said:

Tough to say, as we love our big trucks here.....

But we still have to offer both choices, but EVs are part of the future.

To me it is tough to get too high on EVs, as gas burners wind down a bit- guess what bill in your house gets much, much pricier?

Highly doubt wall street will lose sleep over it...

The Chinese are showing an EV that has a 435 mile range and 0-60 in under 4 seconds at the LA Auto show.   I don't know what this thing will cost, but once they get the cost figured out, they'll probably import those things and sell some cars.  

[smk4565]

7 minutes ago, balthazar said:

CARB is an entity within the CA EPA. When they were founded is immaterial, legally.
Cadillac doesn't overrule General Motors just because it was founded years before.

15 states which compromise 40% of the US population use California emission rules.  CARB has had that waiver for 45 years and it is still standing, Trump can try to revoke it, but 15 states will sue and it will get dragged out in court and California will win because they got granted that waiver and there is no basis to revoke it.

California is also the world's 5th largest economy, car companies will bend over backwards to sell there.  

[balthazar]

I merely answered your question of 'how'.

[Suaviloquent]

It’s okay -

 

Fuel efficiency was something invented by the Chinese to make U.S. autos less competitive.

 

😂

[David]

16 minutes ago, Suaviloquent said:

It’s okay -

 

Fuel efficiency was something invented by the Chinese to make U.S. autos less competitive.

 

😂

That must be a rewrite of the Japan playbook from the 70's.  

[ocnblu]

One state should never have power over the federal level.  It is time to knock California off its high horse.

[daves87rs]

8 hours ago, smk4565 said:

The Chinese are showing an EV that has a 435 mile range and 0-60 in under 4 seconds at the LA Auto show.   I don't know what this thing will cost, but once they get the cost figured out, they'll probably import those things and sell some cars.  

Maybe, but when wall street can't make money on oil, you know what's next.

Cost of charging an EV could end up more than filling it up with gas.

And there is stil the fact of how well it will hold up here as well......

[David]

1 hour ago, daves87rs said:

Maybe, but when wall street can't make money on oil, you know what's next.

Cost of charging an EV could end up more than filling it up with gas.

And there is stil the fact of how well it will hold up here as well......

Wall street has been making billions off the back of hard working americans. Time to flip it on them.

[Drew Dowdell]

15 hours ago, smk4565 said:

I think it will be near impossible to revoke California's waiver, because CARB pre-dates the EPA and any other agency, and what legal authority do they have to revoke it?  Then you get into a political situation where most conservatives will advocate a smaller federal government with states having more power, this does the opposite, it is revoking a state's ability to set laws. 

As far as the cars go themselves, if these automakers want to lobby for low standards so they can keep their profits up in the short term, you'd think the'd remember what happened in the 1970s.  Detroit didn't want to build fuel efficient, they just wanted to make big V8s to get a profit, and the door was left wide open for the Japanese to come in and clean their clocks.   China is going to go all EV, and in 10-15 years they'll have EV's that are like today's Tesla at Chevy prices  and they will flood this country unless GM, Ford, Toyota, etc beat them too it.

4

Exactly! Where are all the "states rights" conservatives on this one? 

This thread is by necessity going to get political.  I'm encouraging everyone here to keep a level head discuss ideas, not people.

TL:DR - Don't make it personal

 

[Robert Hall]

1 minute ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Exactly! Where are all the "states rights" conservatives on this one? 

 

IMO, they are for 'states rights' only when it applies only to furthering right wing causes...

[Drew Dowdell]

2 hours ago, daves87rs said:

Cost of charging an EV could end up more than filling it up with gas.

 

Highly unlikely unless we manage to find a drop-in replacement for petroleum for everything.  If we don't use oil in our cars, we'll still use it in our shampoo bottles... the price of oil won't drop so much that it will drop below the price per mile of Electric.

[smk4565]

1 hour ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Exactly! Where are all the "states rights" conservatives on this one? 

This thread is by necessity going to get political.  I'm encouraging everyone here to keep a level head discuss ideas, not people.

TL:DR - Don't make it personal

 

States rights conservatives use that argument when they don’t like what the Federal Government does and they want something different. 

Politics aside, I also just read oil could go to $200-$400 per barrel in 2020.  That basically will kill gasoline car sales.  Oil hit a record high of $147 per barrel in 2008 and everything collapsed.  How will these car companies manage $300 a barrel because that means $10 a gallon gas in the USA.

1 hour ago, Cubical-aka-Moltar said:

IMO, they are for 'states rights' only when it applies only to furthering right wing causes...

1,000 up votes.

[David]

Great source to follow the Clean California Emissions info: http://calcleancars.org/

Intersting read on this same thread: https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2018-07-23/us-to-propose-revoking-calif-ability-to-set-vehicle-emissions-rules-mandate-evs-source

Another site that does a pro/con writeup on the CARB versus EPA: https://www.dmv.org/articles/epa-emissions-standards-revision

Who knew that the Forestry Service arm of the Government is putting in place their own standards to quiet and reduce emissions of non-road petro powered products. Specifically fire pumps and chain saws but also to be applied to other appliance type devices.

EPA and CARB Emission Standards To Control Nonroad Exhaust Emissions of Fire Pumps and Chain Saws

https://www.fs.fed.us/eng/pubs/html/02511204/02511204.htm

Washington state is working hard to remove emission pollution and road noise. As such of course EV's are a well supported auto option with rebates and discounts. With that said Washington is a partner in supporting CARB over the Federal standards and requiring all new auto's to meet the CARB standard.

https://ecology.wa.gov/Air-Climate/Air-quality/Vehicle-emissions

With 13 states fully implementing the CARB standard, 3 states partially implementing them with full implementation happening between 2020-2025 and being voter approved in the west coast states, I honestly do not see the feds being able to take away State Rights in governing themselves.

If they still move forward to repeal California's CARB. I suspect it will end up in the courts and last well over 2 years by which time Trump should be out of office.

Edited July 26, 2018 by Drew Dowdell
Removed political name calling

[Drew Dowdell]

16 hours ago, balthazar said:

CARB is an entity within the CA EPA. When they were founded is immaterial, legally.
Cadillac doesn't overrule General Motors just because it was founded years before.

 

Not relevant. 

8 hours ago, ocnblu said:

One state should never have power over the federal level.  It is time to knock California off its high horse.

California doesn't have power over the Federal level, so your original premise is flawed.  If General Motors wishes to run away from the California market just like they did with the EU market, that's their choice. No one is saying any manufacturer has to sell in California. 

Years ago, a California car was a car with extra emissions control equipment that cost slightly more. What is the problem with going back to that model?

[smk4565]

Carmakers don’t want to build a car 2 ways, and rely on engine control software to meet emissions, so they later lose a lawsuit for having defeat devices in their software.

[balthazar]

8 hours ago, dfelt said:

Wall street has been making billions off the back of hard working americans. Time to flip it on them.

Know how many hard working American's have their retirement & 401K's invested in Wall Street??

[David]

20 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Know how many hard working American's have their retirement & 401K's invested in Wall Street??

Yup plenty, but that still does not mean that we cannot give Americans a break on cost of getting around.

[ocnblu]

https://fee.org/articles/the-epic-failure-of-the-government-gas-can/

[ocnblu]

•  

•  
•  

Here we are... AGAIN at Cheers & Gears with the double standard... and after Drew implores us to be civil and talk about IDEAS, not PEOPLE... yet this kind of trash is allowed to go on UNCHECKED.  You have got to be kidding me!

If they still move forward to repeal California's CARB. I suspect it will end up in the courts and last well over 2 years by which time the Orangutan should be out of office.

Edited July 25, 2018 by ocnblu

[balthazar]

9 hours ago, smk4565 said:

I also just read oil could go to $200-$400 per barrel in 2020.

Wow- and I just read oil could go to eleventy-billion dollars per barrel next month.

Quote

Oil hit a record high of $147 per barrel in 2008 and everything collapsed.

You must be talking specifically about oil, because it was down to $30/barrel by December '08.

Edited July 25, 2018 by balthazar

[smk4565]

1 hour ago, balthazar said:

Wow- and I just read oil could go to eleventy-billion dollars per barrel next month.

You must be talking specifically about oil, because it was down to $30/barrel by December '08.

Already forgetting $4 per gallon gas?  If Oil goes to $200 a barrel we'll have $6-7 gallon gas.  And good luck to FCA with their Hellcat strategy.    $147 a barrel helped to bankrupt Chrysler and GM, and it would have bankrupted Ford if they didn't mortgage everything they had to get capital in 2006.

[balthazar]

No, I didn't forget it; and I was paying diesel prices to boot. Remembering it and acknowledging it are not the same thing as predicting an unprecedented price skyrocket in 18 months.

07.03.08 : $145.29
12.26.08 : $37.71
04.29.11 : $112.29
12.12.14 : $57 .81
02.19.16 : $29.64
07.20.18 : $70.46

The prices bounces and fluctuates like a paper cup floating on the ocean waves.
But $200/barrel? What's the source for that prediction?

[Robert Hall]

8 hours ago, balthazar said:

 

But $200/barrel? What's the source for that prediction?

20 seconds to do a google search turns up one recent source is speculation of a 2020 economic crash in a paper by an analyst..I'm sure there are others out there. 

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy/expert-makes-the-case-for-400-per-barrel-oil

https://www.pkverlegerllc.com/assets/documents/180704200CrudePaper.pdf

Edited July 25, 2018 by Cubical-aka-Moltar

[balthazar]

Same article has Morgan Stanley saying $90/barrel in 2020, vs "$400/barrel". Speculation- the futures market out thru 2020 (and beyond) has it priced lower than today- if the bulk of investors thought it was going to explode in price they'd be bidding up.

My takeaway from that link is that Gov't standards would be behind this vaguely possible "economic collapse"- what else is new?

[Robert Hall]

4 minutes ago, balthazar said:

 My takeaway from that link is that Gov't standards would be behind this vaguely possible "economic collapse"- what else is new?

Seems like government policies from the current corrupt, unstable government led by the orange cretin would be more likely the cause of a new-future economic collapse.

[ccap41]

1 hour ago, Cubical-aka-Moltar said:

current corrupt, unstable government

You just listed every politician. 

[David]

14 hours ago, ocnblu said:

https://fee.org/articles/the-epic-failure-of-the-government-gas-can/

I have never had these problem using those types of gas cans. Maybe the guy did not read or follow instructions.

1 hour ago, ccap41 said:

You just listed every politician. 

Yes, Yes he did from City, to county, to state and federal, every corrupt unstable political hasbeen.  

[ccap41]

35 minutes ago, dfelt said:

Yes, Yes he did from City, to county, to state and federal, every corrupt unstable political hasbeen.  

My honest to goodness feelings on every politician is that there are only 5% who took the job to legitimately try and do good things. Everybody else is there for the power and money and are corrupt as Fck.

 

[Drew Dowdell]

On 7/24/2018 at 8:37 PM, ocnblu said:

•  

•  
•  

Here we are... AGAIN at Cheers & Gears with the double standard... and after Drew implores us to be civil and talk about IDEAS, not PEOPLE... yet this kind of trash is allowed to go on UNCHECKED.  You have got to be kidding me!

What did I miss? I was in class all day yesterday.  If something is an issue, report the post. 

[ocnblu]

6 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

What did I miss? I was in class all day yesterday.  If something is an issue, report the post. 

Really?  You just quoted me and it is all right there inside my quote.  You're being facetious now.  Turning off the old guard when there is no "new guard".  Shame.

[Drew Dowdell]

1 hour ago, ocnblu said:

Really?  You just quoted me and it is all right there inside my quote.  You're being facetious now.  Turning off the old guard when there is no "new guard".  Shame.

Honestly, no. Out of necessity I have to skim stuff on here when I'm incredibly busy at work. I am all over the NYC area the past few days. I addressed your concern.   I missed it in the original post because my eyes glazed over after the third link.  

I do try to be fair.  If you report something, one of us will address it.  If you quote it, then you're just repeating it again for everyone else to see. 

[daves87rs]

On 7/24/2018 at 8:48 AM, dfelt said:

Wall street has been making billions off the back of hard working americans. Time to flip it on them.

Um, my good friend-you are missing the point.

Wall Street will just starting buying up the Electric Companies instead. And WS doesn't have complete control over a barrel of oil like they could with the utilities here. They will care less about oil at that point, because it's not where the money is......

I'm afraid to see what they would charge for rates then.....

[David]

9 hours ago, daves87rs said:

Um, my good friend-you are missing the point.

Wall Street will just starting buying up the Electric Companies instead. And WS doesn't have complete control over a barrel of oil like they could with the utilities here. They will care less about oil at that point, because it's not where the money is......

I'm afraid to see what they would charge for rates then.....

Guess when you live in a state that has the cheapest electric rates in the nation and is state controlled so it takes Voters approval to increase rates, one does not worry about WS taking it over. 6 cents per kWh makes it a deal to drive EV.

[Drew Dowdell]

15 hours ago, daves87rs said:

Um, my good friend-you are missing the point.

Wall Street will just starting buying up the Electric Companies instead. And WS doesn't have complete control over a barrel of oil like they could with the utilities here. They will care less about oil at that point, because it's not where the money is......

I'm afraid to see what they would charge for rates then.....

Constellation Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and FirstEnergy are already publically traded.  #1 and #3 are among the largest energy generators in the country. 

6 hours ago, dfelt said:

Guess when you live in a state that has the cheapest electric rates in the nation and is state controlled so it takes Voters approval to increase rates, one does not worry about WS taking it over. 6 cents per kWh makes it a deal to drive EV.

I still want to see your bill. 6 cent per kWh would only barely cover delivery. 

[David]

5 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Constellation Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and FirstEnergy are already publically traded.  #1 and #3 are among the largest energy generators in the country. 

I still want to see your bill. 6 cent per kWh would only barely cover delivery. 

OK, I will post again, the latest bill once I get home. I know I posted one before in one of the threads.  

[Drew Dowdell]

7 minutes ago, dfelt said:

OK, I will post again, the latest bill once I get home. I know I posted one before in one of the threads.  

Found it.  You pay 10 c/kWh.

 

[David]

2 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Found it.  You pay 10 c/kWh.

 

So when the state says the cost to the consumer is 6 cents per kWh, that must be before taxes service fees, etc. then probably?

Still even 10 cents per kWh is cheap compared to what I have seen for other states especially California and much cheaper than petro costs right now.

[Drew Dowdell]

1 minute ago, dfelt said:

So when the state says the cost to the consumer is 6 cents per kWh, that must be before taxes service fees, etc. then probably?

Still even 10 cents per kWh is cheap compared to what I have seen for other states especially California and much cheaper than petro costs right now.

Yeah, I'm around 13 c/kWh net cost and I'm on green energy. 

[David]

25 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Yeah, I'm around 13 c/kWh net cost and I'm on green energy. 

That is totally cool, Washington state has just one nuclear power plant left that is slated for end of life shutdown in about 10 years or so. For the most part, pretty green as the bulk of power is produced by Hydro, wind and some solar.

Our Energy Profile. Plus the site allows you to select your state for any other members who are interested in seeing what forms of power are used for electricity, petro production, etc.

https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=WA

[Drew Dowdell]

7 minutes ago, dfelt said:

That is totally cool, Washington state has just one nuclear power plant left that is slated for end of life shutdown in about 10 years or so. For the most part, pretty green as the bulk of power is produced by Hydro, wind and some solar.

Our Energy Profile. Plus the site allows you to select your state for any other members who are interested in seeing what forms of power are used for electricity, petro production, etc.

https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=WA

2

Shhh... no one tell @ocnblu.  His house isn't powered by coal at all and his part of the state has a pretty high number of renewable "greenie weenie" projects. 

[ocnblu]

Skeeterbite, I've tole you all before I would love to have solar on my roof.  Just because I am not triggered by coal, diesel and gasoline powered vehicles does not mean I demand coal to power my own home.  I would not be in a fetal position sucking my thumb if it were though. 

 

 

Posted 30 minutes ago

42 minutes ago, dfelt said:

That is totally cool, Washington state has just one nuclear power plant left that is slated for end of life shutdown in about 10 years or so. For the most part, pretty green as the bulk of power is produced by Hydro, wind and some solar.

Our Energy Profile. Plus the site allows you to select your state for any other members who are interested in seeing what forms of power are used for electricity, petro production, etc.

https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=WA

 

2

Shhh... no one tell @ocnblu.  His house isn't powered by coal at all and his part of the state has a pretty high number of renewable "greenie weenie" projects. 

Edited July 26, 2018 by ocnblu

[Drew Dowdell]

no one here gets triggered negatively by petroleum as a fuel. 

Some seem to get triggered by electric as a motive power or even triggered by those who might like an electric. 

[ocnblu]

Well that's normal.  Electric powered vehicles are the Anti-Christ.

[balthazar]

NJ- 5th largest power producer by solar, electricity still .17/KW.

[Drew Dowdell]

14 hours ago, balthazar said:

NJ- 5th largest power producer by solar, electricity still .17/KW.

How much of that is distribution?  NJ has capacity and flow issues, thus the cost. 

That price would be even higher without the solar.

16 hours ago, ocnblu said:

Well that's normal.  Electric powered vehicles are the Anti-Christ.

I'm significantly more pragmatic.   I like torque... I don't need vroom vroom noises.   I don't care how the torque is generated as long as there is a lot of it and I get it low in the RPM range. I'd drive a nuke powered V12 steam engine as long as it gives me the performance I want.