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Auto analyst slams GM to VA dealers

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There are many varying opinions about what will happen to GM in the future. Auto analyst Maryann Keller has given her thoughts to a group of Virginia auto dealers. Among other statements, she believs that Pontiac and Buick will "disappear within the next five years." To view the entire article, click here.

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Horse$h!. :deadhorse:

They may have much, but cars like the Enclave and soltice, I simply can't see that happening.

Unless GM goes under or falls apart....

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correct me if im wrong, but, wasnt a few billion dollars just invested in buick over the next few years.

pontiac is another story they will have to stand on their own feet it looks.

thats the typical love em or hate em brand with a high loyalty fan base.

if you like them youll be back, if not you wind up hating them.

i think theyll be playing that by ear for a little. i happen to love pontiacs so id rather see them stay put.

buick-, nah they arent going anywhere. maybe up if anything. yeah, i know that sounds corny. f it.

its good thing bm isnt pm, then hed really be bitching.

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Buick not likely, but Pontiac........ I'm not so sure.

need to wait a few more months to see if any Pontiac Zeta's are being planned.

Yeah, i don't see Buick going anywhere, it IS the STRONGER brand.

and GM is giving it product to help it's image.

I think PONTIAC, and to a lesser extent SAAB, are the only damaged brands at GM now. I think it's up to future product for Pontiac, as well as G6 sales to ensure it's survival.

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Keller has spoken to the Hampton Roads Automobile Dealers Association in the past and won praise from its leaders for accurately predicting skyrocketing oil prices at a previous presentation

And based upon the fact that I accurately predicted that "Will and Grace" would eventually go off the air, I can now state that Television will cease to exist in three years, to be replaced by interpretive dance. Performed by mice.

:stupid:

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Wow! a limited natural resource will become more expensive as the supply dwindles. who is she, kreskin?

i wonder how she is at picking the mega ball.

at least its nice to know that if a reputation can be based on such a prophetic vision as that, we all have a shot at becoming an "analyst" maybe a 50/50 chance (but only a 10% chance of that).

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Yeah, i don't see Buick going anywhere, it IS the STRONGER brand.

Stronger how? In product? Buick has two new products the Lucernce and LaCrosse with the soon to be Enclave making number 3. Pontiac has the Solstice and 3 different g6 models, plus the Torrent, Vibe and soon the rebadged Cobalt, G5. Not to mention the 08-09 GTO is a go according to Bob Lutz.

Pontiac also outsells Buick. So how is Buick the stronger brand? All of Buicks demographics are dying off.

Edited by nikivee

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Let be fair to Maryann Keller. She generally is one of the better ones out there and enjoy her perspective. I credit a lot to her when I started out and how I perceive the business.

This is what she is quoted and only what she is quoted as saying in the article.

“GM always seems like it’s in a bubble, like customers are always waiting for GM to release new models,” Keller told about 200 guests from the automotive, advertising and financial industries during a luncheon at the Founders Inn. “GM has never understood that the whole world is changing rapidly.”

“A year ago, Rick Wagoner was saying, 'Just wait until next year when the new models are out,’” Keller said of the General Motors chief executive. “Well, guess what? It’s next year, and market share’s down .”

“That’s really smart,” Keller said of the cuts. “What do they think they’re selling, insurance?”

Really, what she is quoted as saying is not off base if you are observing the company's performance and rhetoric.

As for the rest of it, we do not know, what she actually said. So I think the article sux but what Keller said is not off in left field.

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Guest Josh

This is what she is quoted and only what she is quoted as saying in the article. 

“GM always seems like it’s in a bubble, like customers are always waiting for GM to release new models,” Keller told about 200 guests from the automotive, advertising and financial industries during a luncheon at the Founders Inn. “GM has never understood that the whole world is changing rapidly.”

“A year ago, Rick Wagoner was saying, 'Just wait until next year when the new models are out,’” Keller said of the General Motors chief executive. “Well, guess what? It’s next year, and market share’s down .”

“That’s really smart,” Keller said of the cuts. “What do they think they’re selling, insurance?”

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm certainly no analyst but I do believe I've said that year after year. It's always been "next years models"....well....this is another "next year" but share is down and profits plunged.

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I'm certainly no analyst but I do believe I've said that year after year. It's always been "next years models"....well....this is another "next year" but share is down and profits plunged.

GM is in a perpetual death spiral that Keller points out. This has been going on at GM since the first real market share implosion in 1985.

1) Less and less money available to invest in emerging markets and for product in the US.

1a) Sacrifice on advaced powertrains.

1b) Less model variants.

2) The new product that arrives are not homeruns or even winners for the most part and are receiving a luke warm reception.

2a) Decline of market share

2b) More reliance on heavy incentives to hold a shrinking market share.

3) Rising legacy costs, investments in Hughes, EDS, GMAC, other OEMs etc.

4) Back to bullet 1.

That is GM in 4 bullets. They have to fix bullets 2 and 3 before bullet 1 can be fixed. And those product decision are still a questiom mark especially for GM in the US. This ain't rocket science.

Edited by evok

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i think its safe to say that the proper steps are staring to take effect.

bullet no #3 for instance.

market share wont go up until better products for the money are released.

i cant really remember a "push" for new products like theyve been hawking this my and next--across the entire board

the article did acknowledge that spending for development is up 7 fold from when it was cut more than 10 years ago.

if it took this long to have the effect we are seeing now, then i dont think its unreasonable to take a few more years to get things back up and increasing.

perhaps 2011 is the first honest attemp at predicting the winfall.

reaping what was sown for good and bad.

maybe, this is pure conjecture, but just maybe keller sees some changes, for the better this year and is presenting a "tough love" type of straw man argument.

or i might be giving too much credit.

yeah, we havent seen new products even though they say every year, but honestly does anyone not see that these, for real, might be those better products?

and they stretch across, not just cadillac either. saturn, buicks, the holden playing their part, the trucks...

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Kelle'rs actual quotes from the article are dead nutz on. She has been saying the same thing about GM for 20 years now. This is not a new spin on things.

Anyone go and read her books or article in AI. She is not a typical analyst who gets quoted in the press that does not know what they are talking about. She is not a reporter but spent year on the street with Furman Seltz.

She is one that actually does her due dilegence and homework.

If there is any frustration in her actual presentation which we are not privy too, it is because it might get old repeating yourself for 20 + years when the subject is GM and things appear to not be getting any better.

Edited by evok

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Let be fair to Maryann Keller.  She generally is one of the better ones out there and enjoy her perspective.  I credit a lot to her when I started out and how I perceive the business.

This is what she is quoted and only what she is quoted as saying in the article. 

“GM always seems like it’s in a bubble, like customers are always waiting for GM to release new models,” Keller told about 200 guests from the automotive, advertising and financial industries during a luncheon at the Founders Inn. “GM has never understood that the whole world is changing rapidly.”

“A year ago, Rick Wagoner was saying, 'Just wait until next year when the new models are out,’” Keller said of the General Motors chief executive. “Well, guess what? It’s next year, and market share’s down .”

“That’s really smart,” Keller said of the cuts. “What do they think they’re selling, insurance?”

Really, what she is quoted as saying is not off base if you are observing the company's performance and rhetoric.

As for the rest of it, we do not know, what she actually said.  So I think the article sux but what Keller said is not off in left field.

Evok:

Thank you for balancing the discussion.

Keller is well-regarded among people in the industry and has been for many years.

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Of Saturn, Buick, and Pontiac one or more likely two will certainly fizzle out w/in the next 5-12yrs.

The market will not support multiple rebadged vehicles. GM can't continue relying on fleeting cars to prop up sales figures and production #'s, otherwise they'll eventually run out of cash.

The antiquated model of multiple channels has been proven useless over the past few yrs. And GM's 2005 $10billion+ loss this proves it. GM will continue bleeding red ink until they declare bankruptcy or trim severely trim production.

Edited by toyoguy

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Of Saturn, Buick, and Pontiac one or more likely two will certainly fizzle out w/in the next 5-12yrs.

The market will not support multiple rebadged vehicles.  GM can't continue relying on fleeting cars to prop up sales figures and production #'s, otherwise they'll eventually run out of cash.

Saturn is safe, have you seen the new products? :rolleyes:

Multiple rebadged vehicles? If they all have a different character and target buyer like the Enclave and Outlook, then you can't really call them rebadges.

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GM will continue bleeding red ink until they declare bankruptcy or trim severely trim production.

GM will continue bleeding red ink until the UAW allows it to pay workers wages comparable to its competitors and it gets relief from legacy and health care costs.

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Saturn is safe, have you seen the new products?  :rolleyes:

Multiple rebadged vehicles? If they all have a different character and target buyer like the Enclave and Outlook, then you can't really call them rebadges.

Beyond a GM fanatic's eye the new Saturn products are nothing spectacular. The Sky is a niche vehicle with no profit. The Aura offers little if anything over its competitors. The Outlook is the only one w/any selling potential.

Lots of new vehicles but IMO Saturn doesn't have the customer base.

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Lots of new vehicles but IMO Saturn doesn't have the customer base.

Saturn has one of the highest conquest rates of any GM brand.

Saturn's customer base is also the second most-loyal of any GM division (Buick being 1st) and among the most loyal in the industry.

Saturn consistantly outranks Ford, VW, Honda, Nissan, and Toyota in customer satisfaction.

kthxbye.

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